Softs Report 12/29/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher yesterday in sideways trading. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see s fee showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 76.05 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 3,267 bales, from 3,267 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 369,900 bales this year and 2,600 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 4,000 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 78.30, 77.70, and 77.00 March, with resistance of 83.10, 83.70 and 85.50 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed mostly lower yesterday and the market continues to correct from the huge rally now completed. January closed higher before deliveries start next week. The moves imply that supply is finally getting bigger than demand and implies that consumer demand has dropped significantly in recent weeks. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 309.00, 304.00, and 301.00 March, with resistance at 322.00, 330.00, and 340.00 March.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher yesterday and London closed much higher on less than expected rainfall for Brazil production areas over the weekend. The rally in January futures was extreme and is reflecting the lack of spot supplies to the market. Arabica and Robusta areas are affected by drought and forecasts call for reduced rainfall totals this week to keep ideas of stress alive. Espiritu Santo is the most affected state, but all states are being hurt to some degree. Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production, but there are reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.258 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 179.35 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 185.00, 183.00, and 179.00 March, and resistance is at 203.00, 206.00 and 209.00 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3020, 2900, and 2840 January, with resistance at 3200, 3230, and 3260 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York Nd London closed higher yesterday as a commercial ship hit a mine in the Black Sea. There are also other problems with Sugar availability at this time. Brazil weather forecasts now call for wet in the south and continued isolated to scattered showers in central and northern areas this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas but has noted that India has changed its Ethanol policy to make more Sugar available to the market. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2190 and 2290 March. Support is at 2070, 1990, and 1960 March and resistance is at 2250, 2310, and 2400 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 649.00 March. Support is at 601.00, 596.00, and 585.00 March, with resistance at 633.00, 639.00, and 640.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed lower with London mixed to higher. The market was dominated by currency considerations yesterday. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.175 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 4190, 4150, and 4100 March, with resistance at 4340, 4370, and 4400 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3480, 3440, and 3400 March, with resistance at 3600, 3630, and 3660 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322