Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Grains Report 12/27/2023
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on new that Ukraine had bombed a Russian warship. The news caused an immediate reaction in Wheat futures as Ukraine has been exporting from the Black Sea along with Rusia and this means an escalation in the fighting is now possible. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be about 260.00 per tons FOB. News that Argentina will restructure its economy with a shock devaluation of the peso and structural changes inside the country created ideas that farmers would sell, but it is unlikely they will sell right away and might be better off to wait and see a more calm situation. EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are starting to increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 652 March. Support is at 632, 625, and 617 March, with resistance at 643, 670, and 690 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 674 and 711 March. Support is at 633, 620, and 612 March, with resistance at 658, 670, and 677 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 712, 709, and 699 March, and resistance is at 734,749, and 767 March.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday in range trading. Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady, but industry and speculators have been busy. The roll out of January positions has been very active and some selling is noted on rallies in September. Most farmers are hunting and getting ready for the holidays and are not interested in Rice markets. Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia. The sales were very good last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1761 and 1784 January. Support is at 1724, 1704, and 1680 January and resistance is at 1746, 1767, and 1772 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday along with strength in Soybeans and Wheat. The market anticipates increased selling from producers, but many have sold enough and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Oats were higher. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some showers have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is still much too wet.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 481 and 488 March. Support is at 474, 468, and 465 March, and resistance is at 482, 484, and 492 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 353, 338, and 330 March, and resistance is at 375, 388, and 392 March.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher yesterday, but Soybean Oil closed lower. Less than expected rains in central and northern Brazil last week and forecasts for reduced rains this week were supportive. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production well over 150 million tons. Our source suggests that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week. The market also heard that Argentina has devalued the Peso in a drastic way and plans to cut government spending in a major change for the economy there. Soybeans export taxes could be cut but Corn and Wheat taxes raised. The market anticipates an uptick in selling but might have to wait until the economy becomes more stable.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at1292, 1270, and 1250 January, and resistance is at 1322, 1344, and 1352 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 394.00, 388.00, and 387.00 January, and resistance is at409.00, 414.00, and 418.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4540 and 4230 January. Support is at 4590, 4400, and 4280 January, with resistance at4920, 5000, and 5280 January.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on weekly continuation charts, but lower overall on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported improved demand for Palm Oil and as the weather situation is good for production. There had been concerns about too dry weather caused by El Nino. Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola was closed. Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 645.00, 640.00, and 636.00 January, with resistance at 655.00, 663.00, and 678.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3740, 3670, and 3650 March, with resistance at 3850, 3890, and 3940 March.
Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.
January
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 827.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 830.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 832.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 837.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 827.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 835.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 837.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 840.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 845.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 835.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 835.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 722.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,730.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 242.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.637)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 128,163 lots, or .63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 4,888 4,947 4,888 4,941 4,877 4,920 43 3,807 12,688
Mar-24 4,921 4,974 4,915 4,968 4,904 4,945 41 107,810 179,298
May-24 4,898 4,939 4,887 4,936 4,879 4,910 31 14,211 37,180
Jul-24 4,861 4,907 4,856 4,903 4,858 4,873 15 1,338 6,235
Sep-24 4,841 4,885 4,836 4,885 4,839 4,854 15 961 5,847
Nov-24 4,818 4,845 4,817 4,844 4,815 4,834 19 36 240
Corn
Turnover: 614,425 lots, or 14.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,400 2,413 2,388 2,397 2,426 2,398 -28 16,880 28,767
Mar-24 2,391 2,396 2,381 2,387 2,404 2,388 -16 113,528 381,738
May-24 2,416 2,424 2,404 2,410 2,427 2,413 -14 386,903 730,000
Jul-24 2,419 2,429 2,410 2,417 2,434 2,418 -16 82,686 236,142
Sep-24 2,422 2,433 2,414 2,420 2,439 2,422 -17 13,622 83,285
Nov-24 2,402 2,406 2,393 2,398 2,409 2,398 -11 806 7,483
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,415,482 lots, or 4.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 3,955 3,955 3,878 3,936 3,903 3,912 9 73,224 63,332
Mar-24 3,760 3,836 3,760 3,833 3,787 3,803 16 156,437 225,026
May-24 3,330 3,367 3,326 3,364 3,351 3,350 -1 996,284 1,396,052
Jul-24 3,328 3,347 3,312 3,346 3,335 3,334 -1 49,915 476,334
Aug-24 3,391 3,416 3,385 3,415 3,405 3,402 -3 16,238 71,373
Sep-24 3,378 3,396 3,364 3,394 3,386 3,384 -2 92,072 349,920
Nov-24 3,345 3,371 3,341 3,362 3,362 3,359 -3 27,816 44,050
Dec-24 3,342 3,357 3,333 3,349 3,352 3,347 -5 3,496 9,058
Palm Oil
Turnover: 694,539 lots, or 50.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 7,206 7,236 7,146 7,226 7,110 7,194 84 24,832 12,276
Feb-24 7,136 7,274 7,136 7,264 7,148 7,222 74 14,730 28,753
Mar-24 7,252 7,324 7,226 7,316 7,204 7,276 72 13,433 30,914
Apr-24 7,232 7,304 7,216 7,296 7,184 7,260 76 3,933 15,190
May-24 7,220 7,294 7,200 7,284 7,172 7,250 78 620,963 447,542
Jun-24 7,180 7,250 7,166 7,242 7,140 7,210 70 3,265 7,884
Jul-24 7,100 7,200 7,100 7,200 7,086 7,154 68 197 1,196
Aug-24 7,088 7,156 7,082 7,156 7,056 7,100 44 110 3,474
Sep-24 7,042 7,136 7,042 7,128 7,016 7,094 78 12,674 25,346
Oct-24 7,036 7,106 7,032 7,096 7,010 7,076 66 232 279
Nov-24 7,030 7,090 7,026 7,070 7,008 7,058 50 159 378
Dec-24 7,034 7,072 7,028 7,032 6,996 7,046 50 11 13
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 589,799 lots, or 4.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 7,924 8,002 7,924 8,002 7,924 7,964 40 30,419 17,953
Mar-24 7,892 7,960 7,884 7,958 7,886 7,930 44 21,633 48,104
May-24 7,616 7,720 7,612 7,714 7,616 7,674 58 500,654 599,788
Jul-24 7,530 7,612 7,530 7,606 7,516 7,574 58 12,114 129,564
Aug-24 7,542 7,608 7,536 7,598 7,524 7,574 50 5,547 29,117
Sep-24 7,502 7,564 7,494 7,558 7,488 7,536 48 13,176 49,634
Nov-24 7,478 7,520 7,458 7,508 7,452 7,494 42 5,808 14,190
Dec-24 7,462 7,508 7,462 7,494 7,460 7,490 30 448 6,660
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322