Softs Report 12/26/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher on Friday biut a little lower last week in follow through selling. Daily chart trends turned down. The weekly export sales report showed diminished sales. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see s fee showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.76 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 3,267 bales, from 3,267 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 78.60, 77.70, and 77.00 March, with resistance of 80.90, 83.10 and 83.70 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 19, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 223,473
: Positions :
: 36,603 44,168 46,225 53,567 101,767 73,646 18,726 210,041 210,886: 13,431 12,587
: Changes from: December 12, 2023 (Change in open interest: -4,699) :
: -5,881 301 -2,489 2,054 -4,281 330 699 -5,986 -5,770: 1,288 1,072
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.4 19.8 20.7 24.0 45.5 33.0 8.4 94.0 94.4: 6.0 5.6
: Total Traders: 277 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 83 90 50 62 45 25 217 215:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week and the trends are turning down in this market. Futures gapped lower a few times over the second half of the week. The moves imply that supply is finally getting bigger than demand and implies that consumer demand has dropped significantly in recent weeks.. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives oof 340.00 and 316.00 January. Support is at 352.00, 346.00, and 331.00 January, with resistance at 365.00, 370.00, and 379.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 19, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,398 :
: Positions :
: 2,505 5,911 921 62 92 2,874 808 183 556 741 1,675 :
: Changes from: December 12, 2023 :
: -151 -441 -13 23 6 -343 41 22 -105 -51 -596 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.0 51.9 8.1 0.5 0.8 25.2 7.1 1.6 4.9 6.5 14.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 59 :
: 9 7 4 . . 16 4 4 7 15 6 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower last week after making new highs for the move earlier in the week and despite less than expected rainfall for Brazil production areas. London closed lower after a sharp move higher Thursday based on less on offers from Asia and Brazil. The rally in January futures was extreme and is reflecting the lack of spot supplies to the market. London has given back most of the rally on Friday. Arabica and Robusta areas are affected by drought and forecasts call for reduced rainfall totals this week to keep ideas of stress alive. Espiritu Santo is the most affected state, but all states are being hurt to some degree. Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production, but there are reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam although not enough to meet all of the demand yet. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia have been a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.247 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 182.08 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 185.00, 183.00, and 179.00 March, and resistance is at 197.00, 200.00 and 203.00 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3020, 2900, and 2840 January, with resistance at 3200, 3230, and 3260 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 19, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 270,652
: Positions :
: 48,749 24,945 84,010 51,791 142,573 73,714 8,434 258,264 259,963: 12,388 10,689
: Changes from: December 12, 2023 (Change in open interest: 23,768) :
: 5,544 -991 10,020 3,830 15,180 3,846 -394 23,241 23,815: 527 -47
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.0 9.2 31.0 19.1 52.7 27.2 3.1 95.4 96.1: 4.6 3.9
: Total Traders: 377 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 112 79 103 99 121 50 23 313 281:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again last week on reports of greatly increased availability of Ukrainian Sugar in the EU. Less than expected rains fell in Brazil last week and Brazil weather forecasts now call for wet in the south and continued scattered showers in central and northern areas this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas but has noted that India has changed its Ethanol policy to make more Sugar available to the market. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south but has been lacking in the north. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2080, 2050, and 2020 March and resistance is at 2170, 2250, and 2310 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 582.00, 576.00, and 570.00 March, with resistance at 614.00, 614.00, and 633.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 19, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,043,522
: Positions :
: 78,264 68,397 278,561 395,512 564,968 211,159 74,189 963,495 986,114: 80,027 57,408
: Changes from: December 12, 2023 (Change in open interest: -23,260) :
: -10,454 6,752 -15,562 -1,950 -18,211 4,563 3,124 -23,403 -23,897: 143 638
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.5 6.6 26.7 37.9 54.1 20.2 7.1 92.3 94.5: 7.7 5.5
: Total Traders: 224 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 44 73 71 72 35 25 197 184:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed a little higher last week and remain in a trading range. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.196 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 4530 and 4770 Marh. Support is at 4230, 4190, and 4150 March, with resistance at 4340, 4370, and 4400 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3480, 3440, and 3400 March, with resistance at 3600, 3630, and 3660 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 19, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 432,306
: Positions :
: 89,876 41,310 178,280 105,048 183,335 43,293 14,770 416,497 417,695: 15,809 14,611
: Changes from: December 12, 2023 (Change in open interest: 8,001) :
: 1,027 -929 11,004 -2,338 -1,884 -992 -1,399 8,701 6,792: -701 1,209
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.8 9.6 41.2 24.3 42.4 10.0 3.4 96.3 96.6: 3.7 3.4
: Total Traders: 267 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 66 85 37 46 33 17 214 182:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322