Grains Report 12/21/2023

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 21
For the week ended Dec 14, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 322.7 3.2 14857.1 14444.6 6127.8 154.5
hrw 40.3 0.0 2546.6 3954.5 952.5 21.3
srw 82.1 3.2 4227.9 2309.5 2398.9 90.8
hrs 77.9 0.0 4718.8 4386.5 1547.6 39.4
white 89.3 0.0 3002.8 3552.3 1116.5 0.0
durum 33.1 0.0 361.0 241.8 112.3 3.0
corn 1013.1 1.0 28179.1 20639.6 17749.9 1061.7
soybeans 1989.4 144.0 35360.0 42333.5 14661.6 153.0
soymeal 147.8 0.0 6798.1 5856.2 4027.0 5.7
soyoil 3.1 0.0 31.5 31.3 25.1 0.6
upland cotton 146.7 1.3 8122.5 8664.5 5295.2 641.0
pima cotton 5.3 0.0 183.3 115.1 85.1 2.7
sorghum 237.2 0.0 3902.7 361.0 2275.4 240.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.7 16.3 0.0
rice 97.8 0.0 1755.5 917.2 813.5 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday as no new big export sales have been reported for more than a week now. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be about 260.00 per tons FOB. News that Argentina will restructure its economy with a shock devaluation of the peso and structural changes inside the country created ideas that farmers would sell, but it is unlikely they will sell right away and might be better off to wait and see a more calm situation. China was a big buyer of US Wheat a couple of weeks ago and helped produce a big rally in the market. China has stopped buying for now and the market gave back about half the rally before finding its footing yesterday. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are starting to increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 603, 591, and 568 March, with resistance at 625, 632, and 643 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 620, 612, and 590 March, with resistance at 646, 658, and 670 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 709, 699, and 692 March, and resistance is at 731, 734, and 749 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and trends are up on the daily charts again. Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady, but industry and speculators have been busy. The roll out of January positions has been very active and some selling is noted on rallies in September. Most farmers are hunting and getting ready for the holidays and are not interested in Rice markets. Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia. The sales were very good last week again.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1761 and 1784 January. Support is at 1724, 1704, and 1680 January and resistance is at 1746, 1767, and 1772 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Dec 20
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 24.52 15.40 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 24.04 16.05 0.00
Brokens 14.83 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on ideas of big US production. The market anticipates increased selling from producers, but many have sold enough and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Oats were higher. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some showers have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is still much too wet.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 464 and 463 March. Support is at 468, 465, and 462 March, and resistance is at 477, 479, and 482 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 375, 353, and 338 March, and resistance is at 392, 402, and 405 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower along with the other markets on long liquidation. Less than expected rains in central and northern Brazil last week and forecasts for reduced rains this week were supportive. Too much rain was reported for southern Brazil again. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production well over 150 million tons. Our source s suggest that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already.. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week. The market also heard that Argentina has devalued the Peso in a drastic way and plans to cut government spending in a major change for the economy there. Soybeans export taxes could be cut but Corn and Wheat taxes raised. The market anticipates an uptick in selling but might have to wait until the economy becomes more stable.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1306, 1302, and 1292 January, and resistance is at 1322, 1344, and 1352 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 394.00, 384.00, and 379.00 January. Support is at 388.00, 387.00, and 382.00 January, and resistance is at 406.00, 414.00, and 418.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4860, 4820, and 4590 January, with resistance at 5280, 5360, and 5470 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher along with strength in Soybean Oil and despite ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported improved demand for Palm Oil. Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola closed lower with Chicago Soybeans and the Argentine news. Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 640.00, 636.00, and 630.00 January, with resistance at 655.00, 663.00, and 678.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3750, 3730, and 3670 March, with resistance at 3850, 3890, and 3940 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

December 50 Mar 150 Mar
125 Dec
54 Jan

January
60 Mar 150 Mar 95 Mar 78 Jan

February
66 Mar 150 Mar 90 Mar 66 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 825.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 827.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 832.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 832.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 822.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 832.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 835.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 840.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 840.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 830.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 827.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 715.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,720.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 240.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.653)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 141,870 lots, or 6.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 4,833 4,863 4,825 4,862 4,833 4,843 10 9,689 21,115
Mar-24 4,838 4,885 4,832 4,881 4,832 4,860 28 118,186 191,448
May-24 4,795 4,840 4,794 4,837 4,799 4,816 17 12,055 39,150
Jul-24 4,780 4,822 4,777 4,819 4,782 4,800 18 899 7,410
Sep-24 4,774 4,806 4,765 4,806 4,769 4,783 14 967 7,193
Nov-24 4,760 4,782 4,755 4,782 4,758 4,761 3 74 263
Corn
Turnover: 729,472 lots, or 17.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,417 2,417 2,377 2,390 2,373 2,390 17 49,550 101,255
Mar-24 2,372 2,388 2,368 2,381 2,362 2,377 15 135,703 404,887
May-24 2,392 2,403 2,386 2,396 2,382 2,393 11 418,688 769,350
Jul-24 2,391 2,409 2,391 2,405 2,390 2,400 10 107,062 230,571
Sep-24 2,400 2,412 2,394 2,408 2,391 2,403 12 17,171 78,150
Nov-24 2,391 2,405 2,389 2,399 2,391 2,395 4 1,298 6,958
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,508,538 lots, or 51.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 3,876 3,909 3,866 3,903 3,879 3,883 4 150,693 186,159
Mar-24 3,757 3,797 3,750 3,785 3,760 3,769 9 139,311 188,562
May-24 3,355 3,365 3,328 3,355 3,362 3,345 -17 1,024,227 1,381,303
Jul-24 3,336 3,348 3,313 3,340 3,343 3,327 -16 54,915 489,967
Aug-24 3,406 3,417 3,384 3,410 3,416 3,399 -17 21,711 72,741
Sep-24 3,394 3,394 3,361 3,384 3,390 3,375 -15 90,421 335,681
Nov-24 3,369 3,369 3,340 3,360 3,365 3,353 -12 25,731 44,189
Dec-24 3,357 3,359 3,333 3,352 3,358 3,343 -15 1,529 6,955
Palm Oil
Turnover: 802,970 lots, or 57.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 7,150 7,180 7,044 7,102 7,120 7,124 4 43,279 41,796
Feb-24 7,156 7,236 7,094 7,156 7,166 7,164 -2 15,234 31,037
Mar-24 7,218 7,286 7,142 7,214 7,218 7,210 -8 11,980 31,044
Apr-24 7,204 7,276 7,124 7,192 7,204 7,196 -8 5,324 16,198
May-24 7,186 7,260 7,098 7,168 7,176 7,178 2 707,402 421,945
Jun-24 7,140 7,216 7,064 7,134 7,140 7,136 -4 3,905 7,800
Jul-24 7,108 7,166 7,038 7,070 7,090 7,114 24 146 1,227
Aug-24 7,070 7,118 6,970 7,032 7,048 7,056 8 82 3,503
Sep-24 7,022 7,088 6,930 6,996 7,024 7,010 -14 15,465 18,222
Oct-24 7,020 7,064 6,930 6,986 7,024 7,014 -10 72 280
Nov-24 7,012 7,054 6,930 6,974 7,014 7,016 2 73 382
Dec-24 6,950 6,994 6,950 6,988 7,036 6,962 -74 8 9
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 696,434 lots, or 53.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 7,966 8,006 7,924 7,976 7,972 7,964 -8 66,124 85,646
Mar-24 7,888 7,970 7,854 7,918 7,884 7,912 28 23,222 51,531
May-24 7,634 7,688 7,566 7,644 7,624 7,632 8 563,053 549,870
Jul-24 7,534 7,580 7,474 7,538 7,534 7,534 0 11,527 137,937
Aug-24 7,546 7,596 7,486 7,550 7,546 7,542 -4 3,960 31,549
Sep-24 7,510 7,562 7,450 7,516 7,510 7,512 2 18,809 46,274
Nov-24 7,480 7,528 7,424 7,482 7,478 7,476 -2 7,189 14,942
Dec-24 7,482 7,534 7,438 7,494 7,492 7,482 -10 2,550 6,660
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322