About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Wheat:  Wheat markets were mixed last week, with KRW lower but SRW and HRS higher.  WRW was supporte byt a strong weekly export sles report tat featured sales to China that were at least as large as those seen in the daily reporting system.  News that Argentina will restructure its economy with a shock devaluation of the peso and structural changes inside the country created ideas that farmers would sell, but it is unlikely they will sell right away and might be better off to wait and see a more calm situation.  China has been a big buyer of US Wheat in the last couple of weeks and helped produce a big rally in the market.  China has stopped buying for now and the market gave back about half the rally before finding its footing yesterday. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought.  Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business.  Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are starting to increase.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn:  Corn closed higher on news of stronger export demand.  The Argentine government plans to devalue the peso and cut its value in half and to cut government spending.  It also plans to raise taxes on Wheat and Corn and maybe cut taxes on Soybeans.  Th market anticipates increased selling from producers there, but many may wit until the situation calms and that could take a while.  Oats were higher.  Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks.  The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand.  It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some showers have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil.  Southern Brazil is still much too wet.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and the products closed lower last week on some profit taking and despite less than expected rains in central and northern Brazil last week and forecasts for reduced rains this week.  Too much rain was reported for southern Brazil again.  There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south.  The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America.  Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas.  Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture.  These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.  The market also heard that Argentina has devalued the Peso in a drastic way and plans to cut government spending in a major change for the economy there.  Soybeans export taxes could be cut but Corn and Wheat taxes raised.  The market anticipates an uptick in selling but might have to wait until the economy becomes more stable.  Over a million tons of Soybeans were sold in two days late last week.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice closed a little higher last week in range trading.  Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady.  Short term trends are mixed in this market.  Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia.   The sales were very good last week again.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil held was lower last week.  Palm Oil was lower along with weakness in Soybean Oil and on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported improved demand for the month so far.  Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports.  Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts.  Canola closed lower with Chicago Soybeans and the Argentine news.  Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week.  The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.  Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:   Cotton closed a little lower last week in consolidation trading.  Daily chart trends turned down with the price action on Friday but the weekly charts show a sideways trend.  The weekly export sales report showed diminished sales.  The domestic estimates showed a decrease in production and a smaller decrease in demand for ending stocks of 4.10 million bales.   World data showed a slight increase in ending stocks to 82.4 million bales. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down.  There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.  There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  FCOJ closed slightly lower last week but remain in a trading range.  The short term trends are still mixed in this market as USDA showed unchanged 2023-24 production estimates for Florida at 20.5 million boxes and the US at 68.5 million boxes in its reports two weeks ago.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently.  The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week.  Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend.  Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around.  Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  Both markets closed higher last week on less than expected rainfall for Brazil production areas.  Arabica and Robusta areas are affected by drought and forecasts call for reduced rainfall totals this week to keep ideas of stress alive.  Espiritu Santo is the most affected state, but all states are being hurt to some degree.  Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production, but there are reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam although not enough to meet all of the demand yet.  The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia have been a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York and London closed lower last week on selling tied to the Brazil weather and on reports of greatly increased availability of Ukrainian Sugar in the EU.  Less than expected rains fell in Brazil last week and Brazil weather forecasts now call for wet in the south and continued scattered showers in central and northern areas this week.  The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas but has noted that India has changed its Ethanol policy to make more Sugar available to the market.  The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south but has been lacking in the north.  There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino.  Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong.  Brazil ports are very congested, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:  Both markets closed lower last week and held to a trading range.  Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year.  The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease.  Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming.  Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322