About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little lower last week in consolidation trading. Daily chart trends turned down with the price action on Friday but the weekly charts show a sideways trend. The weekly export sales report showed diminished sales. The domestic estimates showed a decrease in production and a smaller decrease in demand for ending stocks of 4.10 million bales. World data showed a slight increase in ending stocks to 82.4 million bales. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see big rains again and below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 77.86 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 5,268 bales, from 5,268 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 78.20, 75.80, and 75.70 Marh. Support is at 80.00, 78.60, and 77.70 March, with resistance of 80.70, 83.10 and 83.70 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 12, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 228,171
: Positions :
: 42,484 43,867 48,714 51,513 106,048 73,316 18,027 216,027 216,656: 12,144 11,515
: Changes from: December 5, 2023 (Change in open interest: 2,702) :
: 1,907 -2,978 -161 -2,015 3,938 2,927 3,179 2,657 3,977: 45 -1,275
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.6 19.2 21.3 22.6 46.5 32.1 7.9 94.7 95.0: 5.3 5.0
: Total Traders: 281 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 78 87 54 61 46 24 223 209:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ On-Call Cotton – Dec 14
As of Dec 8. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Dec 23 0 0 0 5 0 5
Mar 24 30,975 30,711 264 21,059 21,538 -479
May 24 13,312 13,296 16 2,828 2,788 40
Jul 24 19,530 18,833 697 3,796 3,583 213
Oct 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 24 8,049 7,169 880 32,769 32,210 559
Mar 25 284 271 13 20 20 0
May 25 436 347 89 0 0 0
Jul 25 343 343 0 4 4 0
Dec 25 498 498 0 2,706 2,812 -106
Total 73,427 71,468 1,959 63,187 62,955 232
Open Open Change
Int Int
Dec 23 0 36 -36
Mar 24 102,258 105,528 -3,270
May 24 40,237 40,003 234
Jul 24 29,322 26,503 2,819
Oct 24 25 37 -12
Dec 24 22,837 23,092 -255
Mar 25 2,654 715 1,939
May 25 38 34 4
Jul 25 10 10 0
Dec 25 45 38 7
Total 197,426 195,996 1,430

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed slightly lower last week but remain in a trading range. The short term trends are still mixed in this market as USDA showed unchanged 2023-24 production estimates for Florida at 20.5 million boxes and the US at 68.5 million boxes in its reports two weeks ago. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 361.00, 352.00, and 346.00 January, with resistance at 398.00, 405.00, and 408.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 12, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,477 :
: Positions :
: 2,656 6,351 934 39 86 3,217 766 161 662 792 2,271 :
: Changes from: December 5, 2023 :
: 206 126 -34 5 -38 -308 120 -2 87 -87 -22 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.3 50.9 7.5 0.3 0.7 25.8 6.1 1.3 5.3 6.3 18.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 64 :
: 8 8 4 . . 21 4 5 9 13 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher last week on less than expected rainfall for Brazil production areas. Arabica and Robusta areas are affected by drought and forecasts call for reduced rainfall totals this week to keep ideas of stress alive. Espiritu Santo is the most affected state, but all states are being hurt to some degree. Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production, but there are reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam although not enough to meet all of the demand yet. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia have been a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.242 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 177.64 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that there were 7 contracts tendered for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 233 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 200.00 and 213.00 March. Support is at 185.00, 183.00, and 179.00 March, and resistance is at 194.00, 197.00 and 200.00 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 2800, 2700, and 2660 January, with resistance at 2788, 2910, and 2940 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 12, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 246,884
: Positions :
: 43,204 25,936 73,990 47,961 127,394 69,868 8,829 235,023 236,148: 11,861 10,736
: Changes from: December 5, 2023 (Change in open interest: -4,341) :
: -1,061 -1,847 -4,979 1,033 2,495 954 135 -4,053 -4,197: -288 -144
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.5 10.5 30.0 19.4 51.6 28.3 3.6 95.2 95.7: 4.8 4.3
: Total Traders: 356 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 99 76 106 95 109 49 22 301 268:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/12/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
149,290 55,841 82,195 3,501 10,122 2,794
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 37.4% 55.1% 2.3% 6.8% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
170 47 45 10 10 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
41,944 9,897 5,764 3,462 5,196 28,327
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
28.1% 6.6% 3.9% 2.3% 3.5% 19.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
61 8 18 14 13 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,657 4,995
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.1% 3.3%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week on selling tied to the Brazil weather and on reports of greatly increased availability of Ukrainian Sugar in the EU. Less than expected rains fell in Brazil last week and Brazil weather forecasts now call for wet in the south and continued scattered showers in central and northern areas this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas but has noted that India has changed its Ethanol policy to make more Sugar available to the market. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south but has been lacking in the north. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2150, 2120, and 2090 March and resistance is at 2310, 2390, and 2400 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 616.00 March. Support is at 616.00, 613.00, and 610.00 March, with resistance at 648.00, 668.00, and 674.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 12, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,066,781
: Positions :
: 88,719 61,645 294,123 397,461 583,178 206,595 71,065 986,898 1,010,011: 79,883 56,770
: Changes from: December 5, 2023 (Change in open interest: -43,920) :
: -51,081 943 17,155 11,940 -54,268 -19,743 -6,124 -41,729 -42,294: -2,192 -1,626
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 5.8 27.6 37.3 54.7 19.4 6.7 92.5 94.7: 7.5 5.3
: Total Traders: 222 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 44 74 70 68 35 23 198 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/12/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
73,387 31,754 45,272 6,524 8,192 2,888
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 43.3% 61.7% 8.9% 11.2% 3.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
120 38 36 7 7 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
17,197 3,620 4,689 2,111 2,700 2,699
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.4% 4.9% 6.4% 2.9% 3.7% 3.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
26 15 16 6 6 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,525 3,327
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.5% 4.5%

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower last week and held to a trading range. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.248 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 4190, 4150, and 4100 March, with resistance at 4310, 4340, and 4370 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3480, 3440, and 3400 March, with resistance at 3580, 3600, and 3630 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 12, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 424,305
: Positions :
: 88,849 42,239 167,276 107,386 185,219 44,285 16,170 407,796 410,903: 16,509 13,402
: Changes from: December 5, 2023 (Change in open interest: 18,153) :
: -3,881 -2,783 14,127 8,454 8,234 -854 -1,458 17,847 18,121: 306 32
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.9 10.0 39.4 25.3 43.7 10.4 3.8 96.1 96.8: 3.9 3.2
: Total Traders: 259 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 58 83 38 46 33 18 206 182:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/12/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
538,909 298,381 309,382 24,035 87,008 42,261
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 55.4% 57.4% 4.5% 16.1% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
158 52 39 16 8 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
64,451 3,852 29,326 15,590 5,724 57,111
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.0% 0.7% 5.4% 2.9% 1.1% 10.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
49 3 20 19 10 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,754 4,245
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.8%

DJ Harmattan Wind Arrives in Nigeria’s Cocoa-Producing Regions
By Obafemi Oredein
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
IBADAN, Nigeria-The Harmattan season has started in Nigeria’s two cocoa producing regions and should enhance the development of cocoa, industry officials and traders said Thursday.
“The Harmattan has begun in the southeast cocoa regions. It will hasten the ripening of cocoa,” said Mazi Uche, an official of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria in southeastern Abia state.
Tunji Adebola, a trader in Ibadan, capital of Oyo state in the key southwest cocoa region, said the Harmattan began blowing into the region on Monday, adding that it will aid the fermentation and drying of cocoa beans leading to better-quality cocoa beans.
The Harmattan is a cold, dusty wind that comes from the Sahara Desert and blows over West Africa. It usually starts in December each year and ends in January-March.
However, if it becomes harsh, it dries up moisture rapidly from the soil in cocoa plantations and slows the development of cocoa pods, Adebola said.
He said that attention should be paid to wether the wind becomes harsh and damages cocoa in the coming weeks, especially at the end of December and beginning of January.
According to Adebola, the Harmattan is not yet causing damage to cocoa, and is instead expected to bring a lot of early morning dews, which add more moisture to the soil in cocoa farms and plantations.
Nigeria’s southwest and southeast cocoa regions are currently harvesting the 2023-24 main cocoa crop, which industry officials and traders said hasn’t developed well so far.
Prolonged heavy rainfall resulted in an outbreak of the black pod disease attack on cocoa pods and damaged substantial cocoa, an official of the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria said. The official added that cocoa may still do well toward the end of the main crop period, in January or February.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322