Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
Challenger Job Cuts at 6:30 A.M., Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., Wholesale Inventories 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage rate at 11:00 A.M., Us Consumer Credit Change and Used Car Prices MoM & YoY at 2;00 P.M.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey of home lenders showed that the average 30-Year Mortgage Rate declined for the 3rd consecutive week to 17.7%. The average rate is now 0.73% from the late October high. However, this marked the 18th straight week above 7% and the 115th consecutive year-over-year increases. The Mortgage Demand Index ticked higher for the 5th straight week on softening rates but is still down 11% from last year and remains at a level not seen since 1995. The mortgage refinance index remains similarly poor at historical lows. Brazilian weather forecast is consistent with previous runs staying wetter beyond Dec 12. Another 4-5 days of abnormal heat and near complete dryness in Central & Northern Brazil gives way to better rain chances in the 6-10 day period. The EU and GFS are in broad agreement, and both indicate that rainfall next week in excess of 2”-which is needed-will be rather scattered in nature across Mato Grosso and Goias. Otherwise, rainfall continues across RGDS in far South Brazil. A favorable improvement in Argentine soil moisture is projected next Thursday-Saturday. The heat is still unrelenting and amounts of rain in North and Central Brazil is well below normal. Looking ahead for tomorrows WASDE, the grains are recovering after Wednesday’s losses, after a Turnaround Tuesday spike on Brazilian exports, cash price ($1.50 above CBOT March futures), weather, and yields. Traders anticipating lower overall South American yields that could taint Brazil’s export market when historically restarts in February. China has shown signs of finally coming to the US market. In the overnight electronic session the March corn is currently trading at 487 which is 2 ¾ cents higher. The trading range has been 488 ¾ to 483. Buckle up your chinstrap for tomorrows Unemployment and WASDE data.
On the Ethanol Front India considering curbing ethanol production from sugarcane as the world’s largest consumer of the sweetener battles domestic shortage. No final decision has been made, and plans could change certain authorities said on anonymity. The proposal, which would help ease local sugar shortages if approved, sent sugar futures plunging as much as 7.9% in New York on Wednesday, the biggest decline in 10 months. It would also crush any potential for India to import the sweetener. This could potentially be good news for US ethanol exports. We will have corn use for ethanol data included in tomorrow’s Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand and WASDE data. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
In Remembrance “Of a day that will live in Infamy!” God Bless our Troops and bow our heads to the Greatest Generation. A grim reminder in today’s world.
Shortages WASDE & Global Food Fight. The Corn & Ethanol Report 12/07/2023
Challenger Job Cuts at 6:30 A.M., Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., Wholesale Inventories 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage rate at 11:00 A.M., Us Consumer Credit Change and Used Car Prices MoM & YoY at 2;00 P.M.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey of home lenders showed that the average 30-Year Mortgage Rate declined for the 3rd consecutive week to 17.7%. The average rate is now 0.73% from the late October high. However, this marked the 18th straight week above 7% and the 115th consecutive year-over-year increases. The Mortgage Demand Index ticked higher for the 5th straight week on softening rates but is still down 11% from last year and remains at a level not seen since 1995. The mortgage refinance index remains similarly poor at historical lows. Brazilian weather forecast is consistent with previous runs staying wetter beyond Dec 12. Another 4-5 days of abnormal heat and near complete dryness in Central & Northern Brazil gives way to better rain chances in the 6-10 day period. The EU and GFS are in broad agreement, and both indicate that rainfall next week in excess of 2”-which is needed-will be rather scattered in nature across Mato Grosso and Goias. Otherwise, rainfall continues across RGDS in far South Brazil. A favorable improvement in Argentine soil moisture is projected next Thursday-Saturday. The heat is still unrelenting and amounts of rain in North and Central Brazil is well below normal. Looking ahead for tomorrows WASDE, the grains are recovering after Wednesday’s losses, after a Turnaround Tuesday spike on Brazilian exports, cash price ($1.50 above CBOT March futures), weather, and yields. Traders anticipating lower overall South American yields that could taint Brazil’s export market when historically restarts in February. China has shown signs of finally coming to the US market. In the overnight electronic session the March corn is currently trading at 487 which is 2 ¾ cents higher. The trading range has been 488 ¾ to 483. Buckle up your chinstrap for tomorrows Unemployment and WASDE data.
On the Ethanol Front India considering curbing ethanol production from sugarcane as the world’s largest consumer of the sweetener battles domestic shortage. No final decision has been made, and plans could change certain authorities said on anonymity. The proposal, which would help ease local sugar shortages if approved, sent sugar futures plunging as much as 7.9% in New York on Wednesday, the biggest decline in 10 months. It would also crush any potential for India to import the sweetener. This could potentially be good news for US ethanol exports. We will have corn use for ethanol data included in tomorrow’s Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand and WASDE data. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
In Remembrance “Of a day that will live in Infamy!” God Bless our Troops and bow our heads to the Greatest Generation. A grim reminder in today’s world.
Have A Great Trading Day!
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Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn