About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 7
For the week ended Nov 30, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 356.4 -9.5 13044.0 13641.4 4941.7 133.3
hrw 61.0 2.5 2469.5 3714.7 997.1 21.3
srw 30.8 -12.0 2963.5 2240.6 1220.9 87.6
hrs 151.2 0.0 4477.1 4155.6 1538.2 21.4
white 113.4 0.0 2806.5 3309.7 1061.7 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 327.4 220.8 123.8 3.0
corn 1288.9 22.9 25747.3 19044.0 17040.0 1060.7
soybeans 1517.6 0.0 32399.9 38793.6 14077.0 9.0
soymeal 110.0 0.5 6324.5 5335.2 4133.6 5.2
soyoil -1.6 0.0 28.1 30.7 22.3 0.6
upland cotton 116.4 29.6 7918.1 8733.6 5461.9 626.1
pima cotton 3.2 0.0 170.2 112.4 96.5 1.5
sorghum 119.1 0.0 3587.3 360.5 2553.0 180.0
barley 0.5 0.0 16.6 11.6 16.3 0.0
rice 128.4 0.0 1579.4 844.3 782.9 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 7
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
CORN December Dec 08, 2023 13 Nov 30, 2023
WHEAT December Dec 08, 2023 10 Dec 05, 2023

DJ Lower Brazil Production Outlooks Support Grains — Market Talk
1113 ET – Corn and soybeans trading on the CBOT are getting support from cuts made to Brazilian production outlooks by Conab, which is one of the country’s agricultural agencies. Conab says that corn production in Brazil is expected at 160.2 million metric tons, while soybeans are seen at 118.5 million tons. The soybean harvest is expected to be large, but adverse weather appears to be chipping output off of that figure. Some traders see Conab’s moves as precursor to tomorrow’s WASDE report from the USDA.

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U. S. Stockpiles (millions)
2023-24
Average Range USDA Nov.
Corn 2,157 2,106-2,293 2,156
Soybeans 242 215-259 245
Wheat 684 670-706 684
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2022-23
Average Range USDA Nov
Corn 299.2 299.0-299.6 299.2
Soybeans 100.3 100.0-100.4 100.3
Wheat 269.6 269.3-270.0 269.6
2023-24
Average Range USDA Nov
Corn 313.0 310.0-315.0 315.0
Soybeans 112.9 110.5-116.8 114.5
Wheat 258.8 257.9-260.2 258.7

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly lower and trends are still up on news of significant purchases of US Wheat by China over the weekend. Costs for transport of Ukraine Wheat are high and this has hurt any sales. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are starting to increase. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 657 March. Support is at 631, 622 and 609 March, with resistance at 653, 670, and 680 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 633, 622, and 617 March, with resistance at 670, 677, and 687 \March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 719, 716, and 698 March, and resistance is at 748, 753, and 768 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher on some short covering. Short term trends remain down in this market. The weekly charts show that a big gap was closed with the price action last week since the gap was filled. Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia ad some nontraditional buyers as well. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand from Latin America. The daily and weekly chart trends are down.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1661 January. Support is at 1681, 1663, and 1648 January and resistance is at 1707, 1729, and 1746 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower as demand concerns kept futures on the defensive. Oats were higher. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is still much too wet. There was some beneficial rains reported in central and northern areas last weekend and more showers and rains are possible this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 477, 471, and 468 March, and resistance is at 489, 493, and 496 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 365, 356, and 351 March, and resistance is at 398, 403, and 405 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday on more reports of improved rains for central and northern Brazil this week although still too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. Soybeans appears to be starting a new leg down on the charts. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was not strong after the record sales report the previous week but sales to China continue. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1294 and 1261 January. Support is at 1292, 1270, and 1258 January, and resistance is at 1324, 1339, and 1352 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 399.00 January. Support is at 406.00, 398.00, and 388.00 January, and resistance is at 425.00, 431.00, and 438.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4980, 4900, and 4820 January, with resistance at 5200, 5360, and 5420 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today along with weakness in Soybean Oil and on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported improved demand for the month so far. Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola closed lower yesterday on the weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 648.00, 642.00, and 636.00 January, with resistance at 672.00, 682.00, and 693.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3680 February. Support is at 3680, 3640, and 3590 February, with resistance at 3760, 3860, and 3920 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

December 48 Mar 150 Mar
124 Dec
56 Jan

January
57 Mar 150 Mar 95 Mar 66 Jan

February
63 Mar 150 Mar 90 Mar 58 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 812.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 822.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 832.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 820.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 830.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 840.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 815.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 715.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,630.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 236.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6745)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 168,056 lots, or 8.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 4,902 4,913 4,869 4,903 4,902 4,894 -8 115,117 140,721
Mar-24 4,890 4,890 4,858 4,870 4,891 4,870 -21 39,329 50,389
May-24 4,890 4,904 4,875 4,886 4,912 4,886 -26 11,002 22,884
Jul-24 4,883 4,888 4,864 4,878 4,906 4,875 -31 1,501 6,753
Sep-24 4,869 4,874 4,850 4,864 4,889 4,860 -29 1,085 3,968
Nov-24 4,843 4,849 4,838 4,839 4,865 4,843 -22 22 66
Corn
Turnover: 528,943 lots, or 13.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,499 2,503 2,483 2,492 2,489 2,493 4 251,523 465,594
Mar-24 2,468 2,473 2,454 2,456 2,462 2,462 0 122,075 409,600
May-24 2,509 2,510 2,494 2,498 2,497 2,501 4 99,186 424,569
Jul-24 2,506 2,514 2,498 2,505 2,500 2,507 7 51,053 182,965
Sep-24 2,502 2,510 2,492 2,496 2,496 2,500 4 4,797 40,792
Nov-24 2,493 2,493 2,477 2,478 2,482 2,481 -1 309 1,829
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,641,098 lots, or 6.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 3,902 3,937 3,902 3,937 3,894 3,931 37 6 187
Jan-24 3,927 3,953 3,878 3,943 3,901 3,922 21 765,724 746,036
Mar-24 3,817 3,835 3,774 3,817 3,788 3,810 22 100,222 178,209
May-24 3,401 3,411 3,347 3,389 3,371 3,384 13 628,899 1,152,204
Jul-24 3,381 3,400 3,340 3,380 3,362 3,373 11 54,864 501,596
Aug-24 3,456 3,461 3,409 3,445 3,426 3,436 10 21,960 81,343
Sep-24 3,410 3,424 3,374 3,407 3,390 3,402 12 53,216 276,719
Nov-24 3,396 3,404 3,355 3,384 3,371 3,383 12 16,207 41,888
Palm Oil
Turnover: 950,509 lots, or 65.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 – – – 7,040 7,040 7,040 0 0 2,045
Jan-24 6,950 6,952 6,732 6,916 6,990 6,858 -132 615,761 274,786
Feb-24 7,016 7,034 6,814 6,994 7,060 6,934 -126 21,948 32,993
Mar-24 7,066 7,098 6,864 7,042 7,116 6,980 -136 13,860 27,924
Apr-24 7,116 7,116 6,866 7,042 7,126 6,988 -138 6,962 14,780
May-24 7,100 7,108 6,860 7,044 7,124 6,988 -136 278,600 275,917
Jun-24 7,092 7,092 6,844 7,014 7,110 6,958 -152 4,398 7,044
Jul-24 7,016 7,046 6,808 6,976 7,052 6,930 -122 312 1,199
Aug-24 6,992 7,014 6,746 6,948 7,020 6,910 -110 157 3,526
Sep-24 6,988 6,998 6,780 6,924 6,980 6,886 -94 8,211 14,822
Oct-24 6,970 6,990 6,794 6,932 6,978 6,900 -78 143 228
Nov-24 6,960 6,986 6,788 6,938 6,962 6,888 -74 157 265
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 897,138 lots, or 69.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 8,100 8,100 8,100 8,100 8,190 8,100 -90 5 72
Jan-24 7,970 8,012 7,814 7,936 8,008 7,910 -98 516,656 286,253
Mar-24 7,880 7,922 7,736 7,858 7,916 7,832 -84 25,010 51,299
May-24 7,602 7,656 7,458 7,572 7,654 7,556 -98 297,201 395,911
Jul-24 7,544 7,576 7,400 7,500 7,552 7,482 -70 16,520 143,213
Aug-24 7,526 7,566 7,416 7,492 7,540 7,484 -56 7,932 34,587
Sep-24 7,462 7,510 7,368 7,448 7,478 7,426 -52 23,833 29,837
Nov-24 7,438 7,494 7,356 7,430 7,456 7,412 -44 9,981 15,618
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322