Grains Report 12/05/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
CORN December Dec 06, 2023 532 Nov 30, 2023
KC HRW WHEAT December Dec 06, 2023 5 Nov 27, 2023
OATS December Dec 06, 2023 1 Nov 30, 2023
WHEAT December Dec 06, 2023 228 Dec 04, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again and turned trends up yesterday on news of significant purchases of US Wheat by China over the weekend. The weekly export sales report was bad once again last week and reports indicate that Ukraine is using Black Sea ports to load export Wheat. However, costs for transport of Ukraine Wheat are high and this has hurt any sales. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are starting to increase. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal. Cgina bought 198,000 tons of US SRW.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 657 March. Support is at 605, 591 and 568 March, with resistance at 631, 642, and 653 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 674 and 711 March. Support is at 633, 622, and 617 March, with resistance at 670, 677, and 687 \March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 719, 716, and 698 March, and resistance is at 739, 753, and 768 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower and short term trends have turned down in this market. The weekly charts show that a big gap was closed with the price action last week since the gap was filled. Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia ad some nontraditional buyers as well. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand from Latin America. The daily and weekly chart trends are down.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1661 January. Support is at 1684, 1663, and 1648 January and resistance is at 1707, 1729, and 1746 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mostly lower as demand concerns kept futures on the defensive. Oats were higher. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is still much too wet. There was some beneficial rains reported in central and northern areas last weekend and more showers and rains are possible this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 477, 471, and 468 March, and resistance is at 489, 493, and 496 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 372, 365, and 356 March, and resistance is at 403, 405, and 409 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday on improved rains for central and northern Brazil over the weekend and still too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. Soybeans appears to be starting a new leg down on the charts. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was not strong after the record sales report the previous week but sales to China continue. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1294 and 1261 January. Support is at 1298, 1292, and 1270 January, and resistance is at 1324, 1339, and 1352 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 399.00 January. Support is at 406.00, 398.00, and 388.00 January, and resistance is at 425.00, 431.00, and 438.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5110, 4980, and 4900 January, with resistance at 5200, 5360, and 5420 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported improved demand for the month so far. Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola closed lower yesterday on the weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 674.00 and 652.00 January. Support is at 672.00, 666.00, and 660.00 January, with resistance at 693.00, 700.00, and 714.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3810 and 3680 February. Support is at 3810, 3800, and 3750 February, with resistance at 3860, 3920, and 3950 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 74 Dec 165 Dec
116 Dec
84 Nov

Secember
74 Dec 165 Dec
122 Dec 84 Jan

January
63 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 84 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 822.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 837.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 850.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 830.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 845.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 857.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 825.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 730.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,700.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 239.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6666)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 111,284 lots, or 5.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 4,957 4,987 4,934 4,940 4,988 4,960 -28 75,662 124,151
Mar-24 4,955 4,978 4,931 4,935 4,986 4,954 -32 27,215 39,060
May-24 4,943 4,974 4,939 4,953 4,981 4,958 -23 7,173 17,228
Jul-24 4,917 4,950 4,917 4,938 4,951 4,937 -14 671 5,129
Sep-24 4,900 4,927 4,898 4,915 4,930 4,917 -13 557 2,613
Nov-24 4,889 4,911 4,889 4,910 4,911 4,905 -6 6 41
Corn
Turnover: 516,540 lots, or 1.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,488 2,496 2,478 2,485 2,491 2,487 -4 259,382 545,065
Mar-24 2,465 2,471 2,451 2,455 2,468 2,461 -7 108,360 397,261
May-24 2,491 2,498 2,480 2,486 2,498 2,488 -10 87,334 395,443
Jul-24 2,500 2,504 2,488 2,494 2,505 2,497 -8 56,577 179,264
Sep-24 2,496 2,497 2,482 2,487 2,498 2,489 -9 4,757 40,124
Nov-24 2,467 2,474 2,465 2,470 2,472 2,469 -3 130 1,621
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,931,162 lots, or 71.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 – – – 3,894 3,894 3,894 0 10 207
Jan-24 3,886 3,939 3,872 3,905 3,881 3,905 24 1,024,713 823,748
Mar-24 3,795 3,835 3,766 3,786 3,800 3,796 -4 139,561 158,016
May-24 3,372 3,398 3,355 3,368 3,384 3,371 -13 595,407 1,131,114
Jul-24 3,366 3,388 3,347 3,362 3,375 3,362 -13 59,843 497,353
Aug-24 3,428 3,449 3,413 3,424 3,435 3,425 -10 24,497 81,224
Sep-24 3,382 3,408 3,373 3,388 3,395 3,386 -9 69,348 258,381
Nov-24 3,378 3,386 3,354 3,369 3,377 3,367 -10 17,783 41,409
Palm Oil
Turnover: 706,414 lots, or 50.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 – – – 7,040 7,250 7,040 -210 0 2,045
Jan-24 7,208 7,224 7,092 7,112 7,210 7,166 -44 509,850 304,882
Feb-24 7,270 7,288 7,162 7,174 7,282 7,232 -50 18,773 34,199
Mar-24 7,326 7,346 7,224 7,232 7,344 7,292 -52 9,592 26,977
Apr-24 7,344 7,356 7,238 7,246 7,360 7,308 -52 4,876 15,159
May-24 7,314 7,348 7,228 7,238 7,352 7,296 -56 155,024 226,272
Jun-24 7,302 7,316 7,204 7,210 7,326 7,270 -56 2,928 6,834
Jul-24 7,256 7,258 7,162 7,162 7,278 7,202 -76 135 1,337
Aug-24 7,198 7,206 7,112 7,122 7,236 7,150 -86 169 3,542
Sep-24 7,162 7,162 7,082 7,088 7,162 7,114 -48 4,966 10,196
Oct-24 7,080 7,106 7,064 7,090 7,124 7,088 -36 42 126
Nov-24 7,100 7,100 7,050 7,058 7,100 7,064 -36 59 185
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 675,564 lots, or 53.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 8,190 8,190 8,190 8,190 8,238 8,190 -48 4 100
Jan-24 8,118 8,138 8,060 8,084 8,118 8,100 -18 449,668 351,639
Mar-24 8,006 8,044 7,962 7,986 8,026 8,008 -18 14,664 55,760
May-24 7,782 7,798 7,700 7,712 7,804 7,750 -54 182,246 354,537
Jul-24 7,684 7,688 7,604 7,608 7,698 7,654 -44 10,314 138,252
Aug-24 7,656 7,672 7,602 7,610 7,680 7,642 -38 3,354 33,687
Sep-24 7,596 7,608 7,536 7,542 7,608 7,574 -34 8,282 16,833
Nov-24 7,570 7,582 7,522 7,522 7,588 7,556 -32 7,032 14,566
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322