Softs Report 12/04/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower and trends are mixed in this market. The export sales report was positive for prices once again last week. The US Dollar has been weaker and economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been rel positive and demand has been down. The weekly export sales report was strong. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and below normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.03 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 58,324 bales, from 87,770 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 814 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 78.90, 77.70, and 76.80 March, with resistance of 80.50, 81.00 and 82.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 28, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 218,833
: Positions :
: 39,347 47,880 45,114 53,337 98,335 68,638 13,578 206,436 204,908: 12,397 13,925
: Changes from: November 21, 2023 (Change in open interest: -1,941) :
: 928 335 2,287 -2,645 -4,611 -2,143 -239 -1,573 -2,229: -367 288
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.0 21.9 20.6 24.4 44.9 31.4 6.2 94.3 93.6: 5.7 6.4
: Total Traders: 286 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 78 88 52 61 45 21 221 215:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower, and the short term trends are now down in this market. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 381.00, 379.00, and 361.00 January. Support is at 381.00, 370.00, and 366.00 January, with resistance at 408.00, 418.00, and 422.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 28, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,145 :
: Positions :
: 1,899 6,298 982 21 109 3,725 584 113 815 934 1,965 :
: Changes from: November 21, 2023 :
: -239 -289 8 -12 44 99 61 -51 -52 221 71 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 51.9 8.1 0.2 0.9 30.7 4.8 0.9 6.7 7.7 16.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 70 :
: 9 9 4 . . 20 4 4 11 17 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed lower on Friday but higher for the week. Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production and there are reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam although not enough to meet all of the demand just yet. The forecasts some northern areas to get a few showers and rains and these areas should include some Coffee production regions that have dried recently. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia have been a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.224 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 169.76 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that there was 1 contract tendered for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the moth are 118 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 174.00, 169.00, and 165.00 March, and resistance is at 188.00, 191.00 and 194.00 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2700 January. Support is at 2530, 2510, and 2470 January, with resistance at 2620, 2650, and 2680 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 28, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 228,056
: Positions :
: 42,751 29,301 67,032 43,344 113,738 63,494 8,099 216,620 218,168: 11,436 9,888
: Changes from: November 21, 2023 (Change in open interest: 7,664) :
: 2,273 1,322 3,795 512 741 -7 895 6,573 6,753: 1,091 910
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.7 12.8 29.4 19.0 49.9 27.8 3.6 95.0 95.7: 5.0 4.3
: Total Traders: 366 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 108 75 112 94 105 47 25 312 267:
——————————————————————————————————————

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/28/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
146,302 52,335 76,932 4,191 10,037 1,406
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 35.8% 52.6% 2.9% 6.9% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
167 47 42 9 11 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
47,662 13,774 7,836 2,511 9,332 23,001
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
32.6% 9.4% 5.4% 1.7% 6.4% 15.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
54 12 17 12 14 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,360 3,984
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 2.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week on changes in the Brazil weather forecasts and on ,reports of greatly increased availability of Ukrainian Sugar in the EU. Brazil weather forecasts now call for a return to wet in the south and continued showers and rains in central and northern areas this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2460 and 2440 March. Support is at 2460, 2440, and 2420 March and resistance is at 2600, 2630, and 2660 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 690.00, 674.00, and 655.00 March, with resistance at 714.00, 719.00, and 729.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 28, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,129,500
: Positions :
: 182,784 61,055 282,770 340,944 657,316 227,589 77,483 1,034,087 1,078,624: 95,413 50,876
: Changes from: November 21, 2023 (Change in open interest: -3,576) :
: -17,019 2,889 705 12,411 -9,999 162 1,149 -3,742 -5,256: 165 1,680
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 5.4 25.0 30.2 58.2 20.1 6.9 91.6 95.5: 8.4 4.5
: Total Traders: 245 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 45 83 66 70 37 20 217 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/28/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
81,926 25,935 55,549 7,021 8,976 1,883
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 31.7% 67.8% 8.6% 11.0% 2.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
123 33 39 7 6 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
31,185 2,488 4,357 2,159 2,836 3,006
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
38.1% 3.0% 5.3% 2.6% 3.5% 3.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 5 16 6 7 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,380 2,831
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.8% 3.5%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. The ICOC cut its production deficit to 99,000 tons from 115,000 tons before. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.352 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 775 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 4040, 4020, and 3980 March, with resistance at 4290, 4350, and 4380 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3430, 3400, and 3380 March, with resistance at 3570, 3600, and 3630 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 28, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 418,391
: Positions :
: 97,479 46,488 159,879 97,682 182,262 48,410 16,600 403,450 405,229: 14,941 13,162
: Changes from: November 21, 2023 (Change in open interest: 16,012) :
: 1,896 2,800 8,392 7,099 5,977 -783 -1,180 16,604 15,989: -592 23
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.3 11.1 38.2 23.3 43.6 11.6 4.0 96.4 96.9: 3.6 3.1
: Total Traders: 276 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 102 68 87 41 46 36 17 220 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/28/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
618,022 322,315 352,567 30,901 78,636 54,725
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 52.2% 57.0% 5.0% 12.7% 8.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
165 49 40 15 9 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
66,762 3,931 36,438 16,281 5,257 84,711
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
10.8% 0.6% 5.9% 2.6% 0.9% 13.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
50 4 23 20 11 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,889 1,757
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 0.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322