About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on news that Russia might restrict grain exports in the near future. Russia has been the leading exporter of Wheat in the world market so the news could be very big for the US market. The weekly export sales report was bad once again last week and reports indicate that Ukraine is using Black Sea ports to load export Wheat. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase later in the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to average. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 504 December. Support is at 528, 524, and 518 December, with resistance at 555, 569, and 573 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 570 and 414 December. Support is at 588, 582, and 576 December, with resistance at 632, 649, and 663 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 708 and 691 December . Support is at 680, 674, and 668 December, and resistance is at 706, 731, and 739 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher after trading lower early in the session. Fundamentalists do not seem to understand why the market stays strong, and the rally from the lows made a couple of weeks ago has been remarkable. There is clearly a need for US Rice in domestic and export markets. Demand reports have been strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia ad some nontraditional buyers as well. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand from Latin America. The weekly chart trends are still up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1707, 1684, and 1663 January and resistance is at 1746, 1767, and 1772 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 29
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 23.92 15.02 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 23.43 15.64 0.00
Brokens 14.47 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday on demand concerns. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. Oats closed a little lower in consolidation trading and trends are mixed. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is much too wet. There was some beneficial rains reported in central and northern areas last week and a few more showers are possible this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 447 and 431 December. Support is at 452, 446, and 440 December, and resistance is at 460, 475, and 480 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 340, 337, and 332 December, and resistance is at 375, 380, and 389 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher, and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday as drought continued in central and northern Brazil and too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. Soybeans could be starting a recovery rally, but trends in the products are mixed. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was not strong after the record sales report the previous week but sales to China continue. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1339, 1327, and 1298 January, and resistance is at 1365, 1369, and 1391 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 451.00, 440.00, and 439.00 December, and resistance is at 467.00, 475.00, and 479.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5200, 5110, and 4980 December, with resistance at 5360, 5430, and 5510 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported weaker demand for the month so far. It was higher today on production concerns. Production was high in the MPOB reports released over a week ago but this was expected. The strong demand was not expected and came from China and other buyers. Trends are turning down on the daily charts but are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola closed higher yesterday on the weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and slightly wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 703.00, 691.00, and 684.00 January, with resistance at 725.00, 731.00, and 737.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3810 and 3680 February. Support is at 3850, 3840, and 3800 February, with resistance at 3950, 4000, and 4040 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 69 Dec 144 Dec
125 Dec
63 Jan

December
69 Dec 144 Dec
125 Dec 63 Jan

January
58 Mar 135 Mar 93 Mar 71 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 847.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 855.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 865.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 855.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 862.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 872.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 835.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 760.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,780.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 240.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6506)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 104,023 lots, or .53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 5,061 5,070 5,035 5,064 5,036 5,053 17 81,475 127,402
Mar-24 5,047 5,062 5,032 5,056 5,034 5,047 13 16,278 31,490
May-24 5,050 5,065 5,030 5,058 5,036 5,048 12 5,594 15,559
Jul-24 5,028 5,039 5,009 5,033 5,015 5,021 6 583 4,019
Sep-24 5,002 5,013 4,984 5,010 4,992 5,000 8 91 2,135
Nov-24 4,970 4,970 4,968 4,968 4,980 4,969 -11 2 23
Corn
Turnover: 425,052 lots, or 10.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,491 2,500 2,487 2,492 2,500 2,493 -7 223,455 662,020
Mar-24 2,481 2,489 2,477 2,481 2,488 2,482 -6 80,035 370,073
May-24 2,520 2,527 2,514 2,517 2,524 2,520 -4 64,228 342,210
Jul-24 2,527 2,533 2,519 2,521 2,530 2,525 -5 46,289 163,992
Sep-24 2,519 2,534 2,517 2,518 2,526 2,524 -2 10,933 34,872
Nov-24 2,491 2,495 2,491 2,495 2,493 2,492 -1 112 1,410
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,123,354 lots, or 41.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 3,918 3,940 3,890 3,903 3,926 3,912 -14 1,164 4,142
Jan-24 3,907 3,923 3,871 3,884 3,886 3,897 11 647,318 1,046,833
Mar-24 3,781 3,802 3,755 3,771 3,761 3,777 16 62,574 119,451
May-24 3,430 3,442 3,408 3,417 3,410 3,425 15 302,093 1,019,221
Jul-24 3,411 3,422 3,390 3,398 3,392 3,407 15 30,150 475,386
Aug-24 3,479 3,491 3,461 3,467 3,462 3,476 14 24,347 84,462
Sep-24 3,454 3,464 3,433 3,443 3,436 3,449 13 40,193 238,049
Nov-24 3,430 3,440 3,414 3,420 3,411 3,426 15 15,515 38,572
Palm Oil
Turnover: 886,735 lots, or 65.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 7,298 7,306 7,150 7,150 7,298 7,244 -54 345 2,173
Jan-24 7,372 7,434 7,238 7,248 7,404 7,326 -78 696,962 352,844
Feb-24 7,476 7,508 7,324 7,332 7,476 7,396 -80 19,015 37,195
Mar-24 7,504 7,568 7,390 7,402 7,526 7,466 -60 6,572 26,512
Apr-24 7,520 7,586 7,408 7,418 7,526 7,488 -38 4,102 15,615
May-24 7,524 7,588 7,402 7,406 7,516 7,484 -32 152,092 200,179
Jun-24 7,482 7,556 7,376 7,380 7,484 7,456 -28 4,055 6,492
Jul-24 7,418 7,496 7,338 7,340 7,424 7,416 -8 65 1,380
Aug-24 7,356 7,422 7,286 7,298 7,366 7,342 -24 23 3,637
Sep-24 7,310 7,372 7,230 7,240 7,308 7,290 -18 3,484 9,854
Oct-24 7,236 7,236 7,198 7,216 7,256 7,212 -44 13 96
Nov-24 7,232 7,232 7,174 7,174 7,212 7,202 -10 7 112
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 702,294 lots, or 57.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 8,240 8,332 8,222 8,222 8,240 8,272 32 75 158
Jan-24 8,248 8,306 8,160 8,172 8,224 8,226 2 500,735 419,567
Mar-24 8,144 8,214 8,084 8,094 8,134 8,138 4 12,256 52,516
May-24 7,926 7,998 7,860 7,878 7,900 7,920 20 171,731 298,832
Jul-24 7,806 7,866 7,756 7,760 7,788 7,804 16 7,600 134,133
Aug-24 7,786 7,880 7,738 7,744 7,772 7,780 8 2,560 32,144
Sep-24 7,724 7,780 7,668 7,680 7,704 7,714 10 4,324 14,537
Nov-24 7,688 7,750 7,644 7,644 7,684 7,684 0 3,013 10,834
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322