Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Wheat: Wheat markets were lower again last week on the poor demand potential for US Wheat. The weekly export sales report was bad once again last week and reports indicate that Ukraine is using Black Sea ports to load export Wheat. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase later in the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to average. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Corn: Corn closed a little lower last week in sympathy with the weakness in Soybeans. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. Oats closed a little higher in consolidation trading and trends are up in this market. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is much too wet. There was some beneficial rains reported in central and northern areas last week and a few more showers are possible this week.
Weekly Corn Futures
Weekly Oats Futures
Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and Soybean Oil Closed lower and Soybean Meal closed higher last week as drought continued in central and northern Brazil and too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. Soybean Oil was lower on weakness in /Crude Oil futures that could hurt demand for biofuels. Soybeans and Soybean Oil appears to be starting a new leg down on the charts. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was not strong after the record sales report the previous week but sales to China continue. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures
Rice: Rice closed higher again last week after a very strong day on Friday. The weekly charts show that a big gap was closed with the price action. Futures had been consolidating the gains made the previously in early week trading, then exploded higher once again. Demand reports have been strong for the last couple of week and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia ad some nontraditional buyers as well. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand from Latin America. The daily and weekly chart trends are still up.
Weekly Chicago Rice Futures
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported weaker demand for the month so far. Production was high in the MPOB reports released over a week ago but this was expected. The strong demand was not expected and came from China and other buyers. Trends are turning down on the daily charts but are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola closed a little lower last week on the weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and slightly wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in this market.
Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures
Weekly Canola Futures
Cotton: Cotton closed a little higher last week and near the highs of the week. The export sales report was positive for prices once again last week. The US Dollar has been weaker and economic data has been positive. The weekly export sales report was strong. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Weekly US Cotton Futures
Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed a little lower, and the trends are turning mixed. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Weekly FCOJ Futures
Coffee: New York closed higher last week as Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production and London closed lower on reports of increasing Coffee availability from Vietnam. The forecasts now call for a return to the dominant pattern of a wet south and a dry north this week. Some northern areas will get a few showers and these areas might include some Coffee production regions. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia have been a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing.
Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures
Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures
Sugar: New York was lower last week and London closed higher in choppy trading on changes in the Brazil weather forecasts. Brazil weather forecasts now call for a return to wet in the south and hot and dry in central and northern areas this week after more moderate conditions were seen last week, although Sao Paulo should get moderate showers. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures
Weekly London White Sugar Futures
Cocoa: New York closed higher last week and at new highs for the move. London closed lower and it looks like US Dollar weakness was responsible for a large part of the move between markets. Price trends for both markets are pointed higher. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Weekly New York Cocoa Futures
Weekly London Cocoa FuturesQuestions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322