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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 11/28/2023

By Jack Scoville On November 28, 2023 - 11:07 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

Date 26-Nov 19-Nov 2022 Avg
Cotton Harvested 83 77 83 79
Corn Harvested 96 93 99 95
Peanuts Harvested 96 92 97 95
sunflowers Harvested 86 78 98 84
Winter Wheat Emerged 91 87 90 89

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 6 9 35 41 9
Winter Wheat Last Week 7 10 35 39 9
Winter Wheat Last Year 10 16 40 28 6

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 27
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Nov 27, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 23, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 11/23/2023 11/16/2023 11/24/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 499 0 0 1,142 1,708
CORN 406,680 601,068 311,658 7,267,785 5,817,123
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 200
MIXED 0 0 0 24 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,794 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 280,532 116,550 3,068 967,850 277,760
SOYBEANS 1,443,385 1,631,090 2,229,444 17,452,703 19,587,834
SUNFLOWER 440 96 0 3,293 2,160
WHEAT 276,585 366,472 284,476 8,124,467 10,575,460
Total 2,408,121 2,715,276 2,828,646 33,821,058 36,268,731
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on the poor demand potential for US Wheat and on fund selling due to cchart patterns. The weekly export sales report was bad once again last week and reports indicate that Ukraine is using Black Sea ports to load export Wheat. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase later in the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to average. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 504 December. Support is at 524, 518, and 512 December, with resistance at 573, 585, and 590 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 570 and 414 December. Support is at 688, 582, and 576 December, with resistance at 600, 632, and 649 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 708 and 691 December . Support is at 680, 674, and 668 December, and resistance is at 706, 731, and 739 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 521,351
: Positions :
: 65,568 168,385 174,044 101,454 74,215 138,212 66,548 479,279 483,192: 42,073 38,159
: Changes from: November 14, 2023 (Change in open interest: 7,133) :
: 1,569 16,899 -10,153 12,308 -4,833 1,434 4,601 5,158 6,514: 1,975 619
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 32.3 33.4 19.5 14.2 26.5 12.8 91.9 92.7: 8.1 7.3
: Total Traders: 386 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 93 112 123 102 90 44 31 313 298:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 242,800
: Positions :
: 29,426 80,164 63,064 54,539 50,610 73,791 25,829 220,820 219,667: 21,980 23,133
: Changes from: November 14, 2023 (Change in open interest: -3,168) :
: -329 8,861 -6,270 3,783 -7,608 -1,055 -231 -3,872 -5,248: 704 2,080
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.1 33.0 26.0 22.5 20.8 30.4 10.6 90.9 90.5: 9.1 9.5
: Total Traders: 217 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 43 57 57 55 65 35 17 162 172:
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 77,147 :
: Positions :
: 47,696 23,633 2,141 354 277 3,407 31,015 4,678 2,822 1,437 4,433 :
: Changes from: November 14, 2023 :
: -1,192 -2,191 -127 -178 90 -165 -283 933 577 -337 -228 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 61.8 30.6 2.8 0.5 0.4 4.4 40.2 6.1 3.7 1.9 5.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 110 :
: 52 42 . . . 7 26 11 9 7 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower and fell back into the trading range set last week. The weekly charts show that a big gap was closed with the price action last week. Futures had been consolidating the gains made the previously in early week trading, then exploded higher once again. Demand reports have been strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia ad some nontraditional buyers as well. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand from Latin America. The daily and weekly chart trends are still up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1707, 1684, and 1663 January and resistance is at 1767, 1772, and 1784 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 12,244 :
: Positions :
: 4,087 10,359 109 0 0 3,426 294 7 1,376 172 676 :
: Changes from: November 14, 2023 :
: -485 1,169 13 0 0 1,333 0 6 -5 -76 284 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 33.4 84.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 28.0 2.4 0.1 11.2 1.4 5.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 68 :
: 18 24 . 0 0 16 . . 11 6 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on demand concerns. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. Oats closed a little higher in consolidation trading and trends are up in this market. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is much too wet. There was some beneficial rains reported in central and northern areas last week and a few more showers are possible this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 447 and 431 December. Support is at 452, 446, and 440 December, and resistance is at 480, 506, and 507 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 364, 353, and 348 December, and resistance is at 380, 389, and 394 December.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,030 :
: Positions :
: 2,566 2,670 121 127 9 157 409 0 294 138 180 :
: Changes from: November 14, 2023 :
: 195 -25 -3 8 1 -34 96 0 0 -128 33 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.0 53.1 2.4 2.5 0.2 3.1 8.1 0.0 5.8 2.7 3.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 22 :
: 9 6 . . . . . 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed mixed and Soybean Oil Closed lower and Soybean Meal closed higher yesterday as drought continued in central and northern Brazil and too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. Soybean Oil was lower on weakness in /Crude Oil futures that could hurt demand for biofuels. Soybeans and Soybean Oil appears to be starting a new leg down on the charts. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was not strong after the record sales report the previous week but sales to China continue. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 123,300 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1309, 1294, and 1261 January. Support is at 1327, 1298, and 1292 January, and resistance is at 1365, 1369, and 1394 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 451.00, 440.00, and 439.00 December, and resistance is at 467.00, 475.00, and 479.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4970, 4840 and 4680 December. Support is at 4980, 4900, and 4830 December, with resistance at 5360, 5430, and 5510 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported weaker demand for the month so far. It was lower today on demand concerns. Production was high in the MPOB reports released over a week ago but this was expected. The strong demand was not expected and came from China and other buyers. Trends are turning down on the daily charts but are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola closed a little lower last week on the weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and slightly wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 691.00, 684.00, and 672.00 January, with resistance at 711.00, 725.00, and 733.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3810 and 3680 February. Support is at 3880, 3840, and 3800 February, with resistance at 3950, 4000, and 4040 February.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 41,231 :
: Positions :
: 31,585 19,689 790 9,196 760 80 700 0 856 3,672 7,160 :
: Changes from: November 14, 2023 :
: -890 1,203 0 -1,114 0 80 -180 -80 -75 -848 640 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 76.6 47.8 1.9 22.3 1.8 0.2 1.7 0.0 2.1 8.9 17.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 35 :
: 10 11 . 4 . . . 0 . 11 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 21, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 271,693 :
: Positions :
: 204,736 128,889 14,771 2,310 4,616 5,377 92,975 26,711 3,956 5,143 9,629 :
: Changes from: November 14, 2023 :
: -8,930 1,027 -756 -397 111 784 -10,543 -809 -1,392 -254 72 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 75.4 47.4 5.4 0.9 1.7 2.0 34.2 9.8 1.5 1.9 3.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 295 :
: 59 52 5 6 5 18 79 22 59 41 45 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 74 Dec 165 Dec
116 Dec
84 Nov

Secember
74 Dec 165 Dec
122 Dec 84 Jan

January
63 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 84 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 847.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 857.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 867.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 855.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 865.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 875.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 835.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 760.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,780.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 241.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.67)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 107,114 lots, or 5.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 5,039 5,056 5,020 5,042 5,068 5,036 -32 81,833 126,896
Mar-24 5,046 5,050 5,017 5,040 5,050 5,034 -16 18,753 31,649
May-24 5,053 5,053 5,024 5,041 5,066 5,036 -30 6,014 14,972
Jul-24 5,027 5,027 5,004 5,020 5,037 5,015 -22 342 4,082
Sep-24 4,990 5,005 4,983 4,996 5,015 4,992 -23 172 2,146
Nov-24 – – – 4,980 4,986 4,980 -6 0 25
Corn
Turnover: 585,333 lots, or 14.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,510 2,514 2,490 2,492 2,517 2,500 -17 303,587 674,036
Mar-24 2,503 2,506 2,480 2,481 2,506 2,488 -18 120,350 367,179
May-24 2,535 2,540 2,516 2,518 2,543 2,524 -19 79,231 328,063
Jul-24 2,541 2,544 2,521 2,521 2,547 2,530 -17 70,144 159,779
Sep-24 2,544 2,544 2,518 2,520 2,546 2,526 -20 11,652 31,508
Nov-24 2,504 2,508 2,488 2,492 2,507 2,493 -14 369 1,370
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,332,571 lots, or 4.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 3,944 3,944 3,878 3,915 3,944 3,926 -18 1,760 5,108
Jan-24 3,913 3,920 3,865 3,899 3,928 3,886 -42 765,252 1,067,063
Mar-24 3,791 3,797 3,739 3,769 3,815 3,761 -54 76,579 116,433
May-24 3,435 3,436 3,390 3,423 3,450 3,410 -40 334,290 1,015,965
Jul-24 3,412 3,418 3,373 3,404 3,434 3,392 -42 48,790 473,670
Aug-24 3,488 3,488 3,444 3,474 3,496 3,462 -34 32,839 83,203
Sep-24 3,454 3,458 3,420 3,447 3,463 3,436 -27 56,025 235,113
Nov-24 3,432 3,434 3,397 3,426 3,445 3,411 -34 17,036 37,834
Palm Oil
Turnover: 791,358 lots, or 58.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 7,262 7,364 7,262 7,276 7,262 7,298 36 320 2,393
Jan-24 7,410 7,460 7,362 7,372 7,316 7,404 88 620,069 325,043
Feb-24 7,476 7,524 7,438 7,448 7,386 7,476 90 15,001 34,923
Mar-24 7,510 7,568 7,482 7,502 7,444 7,526 82 6,896 26,468
Apr-24 7,530 7,574 7,482 7,516 7,450 7,526 76 4,942 15,777
May-24 7,500 7,568 7,468 7,514 7,440 7,516 76 138,426 195,316
Jun-24 7,488 7,530 7,438 7,482 7,412 7,484 72 3,455 6,653
Jul-24 7,422 7,452 7,394 7,418 7,368 7,424 56 55 1,381
Aug-24 7,346 7,388 7,332 7,354 7,318 7,366 48 28 3,640
Sep-24 7,300 7,342 7,276 7,306 7,266 7,308 42 2,138 9,220
Oct-24 7,266 7,290 7,210 7,252 7,212 7,256 44 18 92
Nov-24 7,224 7,230 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,212 12 10 106
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 661,034 lots, or 5.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 8,216 8,334 8,216 8,290 8,216 8,240 24 189 216
Jan-24 8,208 8,262 8,178 8,226 8,144 8,224 80 476,103 428,899
Mar-24 8,122 8,176 8,100 8,130 8,080 8,134 54 19,862 52,020
May-24 7,862 7,938 7,856 7,906 7,832 7,900 68 146,193 285,179
Jul-24 7,774 7,820 7,754 7,796 7,724 7,788 64 7,428 134,791
Aug-24 7,758 7,800 7,744 7,776 7,714 7,772 58 2,517 32,208
Sep-24 7,690 7,732 7,676 7,710 7,650 7,704 54 4,663 14,403
Nov-24 7,672 7,712 7,662 7,682 7,640 7,684 44 4,079 10,671
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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. Suite 1340A, Chicago, IL 60604 | (800) 769-7021 | (312) 264-4364 (Direct) | www.pricegroup.com
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
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