About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Nov 24
WINNIPEG — The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for week ended Nov. 19, 2023. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2851.4 501.8 312.4 497.4 48.9 1054.7 367.3 236.3 7068.2
Week Ago 2786.8 572.3 300.6 446.3 49.8 1121.7 363.3 106.7 7025.2
Year Ago 2682.2 766.6 251.6 525.4 47.0 1233.3 294.2 189.8 7153.8
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 582.1 68.8 34.0 77.5 2.8 307.9 31.3 10.1 1212.0
Week Ago 508.9 39.1 34.3 63.0 1.0 281.0 33.3 11.6 1078.3
To Date 7848.6 1220.6 681.7 1517.2 42.3 5212.7 1128.8 163.4 19578.0
Year Ago 7592.4 1774.8 852.5 1858.0 36.7 6074.9 1223.9 112.2 21141.9
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 589.8 46.4 5.8 37.5 0.0 105.0 16.1 65.7 1196.5
Week Ago 454.1 80.9 8.5 53.4 0.0 175.0 16.3 40.1 1250.1
To Date 8337.3 1147.0 221.4 781.2 0.0 2308.0 746.2 160.7 16794.0
Year Ago 7543.6 1642.8 71.6 1063.9 1.3 2825.0 919.8 337.6 17635.9
EXPORTS
This Week 472.1 60.6 9.7 114.5 1.2 143.6 12.4 35.6 1114.3
Week Ago 312.6 104.4 21.3 36.4 1.3 146.6 40.3 0.0 871.9
To Date 6297.5 881.9 551.4 742.7 15.3 1939.8 773.3 122.4 13129.2
Year Ago 5981.2 1283.0 463.4 1050.2 13.8 2376.6 812.2 257.9 14163.2
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 131.9 13.3 18.3 26.4 1.3 232.2 3.7 43.4 592.8
Week Ago 160.5 28.6 18.0 29.1 0.7 176.8 3.1 33.7 524.5
To Date 2139.7 217.7 274.0 462.0 19.7 3288.8 58.6 384.4 7598.9
Year Ago 1312.6 221.9 278.6 503.8 21.4 3005.4 95.8 442.4 6696.7
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again last week on the poor demand potential for US Wheat. The weekly export sales report was bad once again last week and reports indicate that Ukraine is using Black Sea ports to load export Wheat. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that the crop is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase later in the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to average. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 504 December. Support is at 537, 530, and 524 December, with resistance at 573, 585, and 590 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 570 and 414 December. Support is at 600, 584, and 588 December, with resistance at 632, 649, and 663 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 708 and 691 December . Support is at 703, 696, and 693 December, and resistance is at 731, 739, and 746 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again last week after a very strong day on Friday. The weekly charts show that a big gap was closed with the price action. Futures had been consolidating the gains made the previously in early week trading, then exploded higher once again. Demand reports have been strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia ad some nontraditional buyers as well. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand from Latin America. The daily and weekly chart trends are still up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1801 and 1848 January. Support is at 1740, 1725, and 1707 January and resistance is at 1772, 1784, and 1796 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower last week in sympathy with the weakness in Soybeans. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. Oats closed a little higher in consolidation trading and trends are up in this market. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is much too wet. There was some beneficial rains reported in central and northern areas last week and a few more showers are possible this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 461, 458, and 452 December, and resistance is at 480, 506, and 507 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 364, 353, and 348 December, and resistance is at 389, 394, and 399 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil Closed lower and Soybean Meal closed higher last week as drought continued in central and northern Brazil and too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and still very wet conditions in the south. Soybean Oil was lower on weakness in /Crude Oil futures that could hurt demand for biofuels. Soybeans and Soybean Oil appears to be starting a new leg down on the charts. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was not strong after the record sales report the previous week but sales to China continue. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1309, 1294, and 1261 January. Support is at 1327, 1298, and 1292 January, and resistance is at 1350, 1369, and 1394 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 451.00, 440.00, and 439.00 December, and resistance is at 464.00, 475.00, and 479.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4970, 4840 and 4680 December. Support is at 5120, 4980, and 4900 December, with resistance at 5360, 5430, and 5510 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported weaker demand for the month so far. It was lower today on demand concerns. Production was high in the MPOB reports released over a week ago but this was expected. The strong demand was not expected and came from China and other buyers. Trends are turning down on the daily charts but are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola closed a little lower last week on the weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for very wet weather in southern Brazil and slightly wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 691.00, 684.00, and 672.00 January, with resistance at 711.00, 725.00, and 733.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3810 and 3680 February. Support is at 3880, 3840, and 3800 February, with resistance at 3950, 4000, and 4040 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 74 Dec 165 Dec
116 Dec
84 Nov

Secember
74 Dec 165 Dec
122 Dec 84 Jan

January
63 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 84 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 845.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 855.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 862.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 852.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 862.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 870.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 835.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 760.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,800.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 242.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6812)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 173,299 lots, or 8.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 5,068 5,108 5,034 5,051 5,058 5,068 10 136,730 128,918
Mar-24 5,070 5,092 5,018 5,046 5,053 5,050 -3 28,198 29,047
May-24 5,084 5,106 5,036 5,053 5,068 5,066 -2 7,353 13,660
Jul-24 5,063 5,079 5,017 5,032 5,043 5,037 -6 457 4,093
Sep-24 5,040 5,043 4,994 5,009 5,012 5,015 3 552 2,160
Nov-24 4,986 5,006 4,970 4,974 4,973 4,986 13 9 25
Corn
Turnover: 684,050 lots, or 17.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,530 2,540 2,505 2,510 2,538 2,517 -21 383,153 680,320
Mar-24 2,514 2,523 2,498 2,500 2,526 2,506 -20 145,632 360,238
May-24 2,552 2,560 2,534 2,535 2,559 2,543 -16 82,851 307,441
Jul-24 2,557 2,564 2,539 2,540 2,564 2,547 -17 59,881 154,426
Sep-24 2,558 2,565 2,536 2,541 2,562 2,546 -16 12,277 25,527
Nov-24 2,516 2,517 2,501 2,505 2,514 2,507 -7 256 1,206
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,561,445 lots, or 5.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 3,982 4,010 3,908 3,919 3,982 3,944 -38 1,138 5,865
Jan-24 3,978 3,991 3,886 3,902 3,966 3,928 -38 885,472 1,080,697
Mar-24 3,853 3,886 3,766 3,782 3,851 3,815 -36 104,864 109,794
May-24 3,483 3,507 3,414 3,425 3,483 3,450 -33 386,084 1,015,260
Jul-24 3,470 3,485 3,399 3,407 3,466 3,434 -32 48,288 473,051
Aug-24 3,534 3,546 3,468 3,477 3,526 3,496 -30 32,452 81,494
Sep-24 3,500 3,516 3,439 3,448 3,495 3,463 -32 79,835 228,003
Nov-24 3,478 3,488 3,414 3,426 3,473 3,445 -28 23,312 35,923
Palm Oil
Turnover: 884,262 lots, or 64.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 7,274 7,316 7,164 7,316 7,274 7,262 -12 430 2,597
Jan-24 7,310 7,414 7,252 7,410 7,370 7,316 -54 694,951 352,423
Feb-24 7,380 7,484 7,332 7,484 7,438 7,386 -52 15,735 33,930
Mar-24 7,440 7,530 7,382 7,526 7,498 7,444 -54 7,591 26,612
Apr-24 7,508 7,534 7,388 7,528 7,522 7,450 -72 5,735 15,545
May-24 7,458 7,524 7,372 7,516 7,512 7,440 -72 148,396 191,913
Jun-24 7,474 7,490 7,348 7,480 7,474 7,412 -62 4,807 6,632
Jul-24 7,340 7,420 7,320 7,420 7,418 7,368 -50 206 1,381
Aug-24 7,314 7,368 7,266 7,368 7,368 7,318 -50 126 3,636
Sep-24 7,268 7,322 7,200 7,308 7,294 7,266 -28 6,246 8,974
Oct-24 7,218 7,268 7,180 7,242 7,258 7,212 -46 30 97
Nov-24 7,206 7,220 7,188 7,220 7,208 7,200 -8 9 111
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 714,768 lots, or 57.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 8,154 8,284 8,152 8,234 8,214 8,216 2 113 343
Jan-24 8,150 8,212 8,082 8,208 8,190 8,144 -46 512,359 455,246
Mar-24 8,104 8,134 8,014 8,132 8,110 8,080 -30 17,543 48,113
May-24 7,856 7,896 7,774 7,892 7,870 7,832 -38 159,103 282,418
Jul-24 7,762 7,780 7,680 7,772 7,762 7,724 -38 9,175 136,038
Aug-24 7,702 7,766 7,668 7,760 7,742 7,714 -28 4,349 32,402
Sep-24 7,676 7,702 7,606 7,694 7,672 7,650 -22 7,838 14,510
Nov-24 7,636 7,684 7,594 7,666 7,654 7,640 -14 4,288 9,675
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322