Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Wheat: Wheat markets were lower last week as the market remains pessimistic about demand potential for US Wheat. The weekly export sales report was bad once again this week and reports indicate that Ukraine is determined to use Black Sea ports to load export Wheat. Ukraine is still exporting through the Black Sea. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that it is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to average. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Corn: Corn closed higher last week as the weekly export sales report showed very strong demand and despite some forecasts for showers and rains in central and northern Brazil. Oats closed a little lower in consolidation trading. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is much too wet. These patterns could change this week as forecasts call for significant precipitation in central and northern Brazl and drier conditions to the south. The patterns could shift again the following week to hot and dry in the north and too much rain in the south, but the second week forecast is a long way off and very subject to change.
Weekly Corn Futures
Weekly Oats Futures
Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher last week, but Soybean Meal was lower as drought continued in central and northern Brazil and too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers this week in central and northern Brazil and drier conditions in the south. It could be a pattern change but current forecasts call for rains to move south again and dry conditions to return to the north the following week. That is a long way off and no one dan br sure as to what will happen. Soybean Oil was higher as disappearance was very high in the NOPA reports issued in the middle of last week. Soybean Oil appears to be completing a bottom on the daily charts. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans was very strong and strong sales have been reported to China. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures
Rice: Rice closed sharply higher and at new highs for the move last week and pries are still in an uptrend. Futures had been consolidating the gains made the previously in early week trading, then exploded higher once again. Demand reports have been strong for the last couple of week and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia ad some nontraditional buyers as well The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand from Latin America and Asia. The daily and weekly chart trends are still up.
Weekly Chicago Rice Futures
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil was higher last week along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and on ideas of stronger demand for Palm. Production was high in the MPOB reports released over a week ago but this was expected. The strong demand was not expected and came from China and other buyers. Private surveyors showed that the strong demand continues for the month to date. Trends are mixed on the daily charts but are quietly turning up on the weekly charts. Canola closed higher last week on the weather in Brazil. It gave back the best gains of the week on forecasts for drier weather ion southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas. The crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mostly up on the daily charts in this market.
Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures
Weekly Canola Futures
Cotton: Cotton closed a little higher last week as ideas of good demand continue. The US Dollar has been weaker and economic data has been positive. The weekly export sales report was strong. The monthly USDA reports were mostly ignored as market factors. USDA increased yields and production to 13.090 million bales. Ending stocks levels increased to 320 million bales from 280 million last month. World ending stocks levels were also increased. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Weekly US Cotton Futures
Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed sharply higher last week, and the trends on the daily and weekly charts are up. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Weekly FCOJ Futures
Coffee: Both markets closed higher last week on reports of logistical and weather related problems in Brazil ports. Showers and rains are now being reported in central and southern growing areas of Brazil, with biggest amounts in the south by far. Loading at and transportation to ports has been affected by the rain as well. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas remains around the market. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing
Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures
Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures
Sugar: Both markets closed a little lower last week. Brazil weather forecasts now call for drier conditions in the south and wet conditions in the north for this week before a return to wet in the south and hot and dry in central and northern areas next week. Traders will wonder if this is a pattern change or just a blip in the longer term weather patterns but for now the forecasts indicate that the change should be for next week only. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures
Weekly London White Sugar Futures
Cocoa: New York and London closed higher last week after making new highs for the move. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production. Port arrivals in top grower Ivory Coast in the marketing year to date totaled 350,000 metric tons down 25% from last year.
Weekly New York Cocoa Futures
Weekly London Cocoa Futures
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