Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. The weekly export sales report was strong and helped support prices. The monthly USDA reports were mostly ignored as market factors. USDA increased yields and production to 13.090 million bales. Ending stocks levels increased to 320 million bales from 280 million last month. World ending stocks levels were also increased. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 73.95 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 86,868 bales, from 86,425 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8140 and 8480 December. Support is at 78.00, 76.90, and 74.80 December, with resistance of 80.80, 81.50 and 83.40 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Nov 16
As of Nov 10. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 9,693 17,221 -7,528 17,148 21,670 -4,522
Mar 24 28,124 26,056 2,068 10,132 6,937 3,195
May 24 11,608 10,505 1,103 1,190 1,122 68
Jul 24 16,105 15,413 692 2,724 2,655 69
Oct 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 24 6,808 6,781 27 31,247 31,150 97
Mar 25 184 184 0 0 0 0
May 25 379 379 0 0 0 0
Jul 25 114 114 0 0 0 0
Dec 25 375 375 0 1,757 1,757 0
Total 73,390 77,028 -3,638 64,198 69,691 -1,093
Open Open Change
Oct 23 0 0 0
Dec 23 45,528 94,240 -48,712
Mar 24 88,123 68,560 19,563
May 24 37,584 37,750 -166
Jul 24 23,557 19,359 4,198
Oct 24 45 7 38
Dec 24 21,955 18,240 3,715
Mar 25 687 537 150
May 25 34 17 17
Jul 25 10 3 7
Dec 25 38 39 -1
Total 217,561 238,752 -21,191
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher to limit up again yesterday, and the trends on the daily charts are up. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 391.00, 382.00, and 370.00 January, with resistance at 417.00, 424.00, and 430.00 January.
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher yesterday on forecasts for Brazil weather that now call for drier conditions in the south and wet conditions in the north for next week. Traders will wonder if this is a pattern change or just a blip in the longer term weather patterns but for now the forecasts indicate that the change should be for next week only with drier conditions returning to the north and wetter conditions to the south during the following week. Cecafe said that Brazil Coffee exports were 4.4 million bags in October, up 22% from the previous year. There was some buying on the low certified stocks seen in New York. The stocks are at 24 year lows according to Reuters. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.289 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 164.19 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 183.00 December. Support is at 175.00, 171.00, and 169.00 December, and resistance is at 182.00, 185.00 and 189.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2610 January. Support is at 2520, 2480, and 2440 January, with resistance at 2600, 2620, and 2650 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher yesterday. Brazil weather that now call for drier conditions in the south and wet conditions in the north for next week. Traders will wonder if this is a pattern change or just a blip in the longer term weather patterns but for now the forecasts indicate that the change should be for next week only with drier conditions returning to the north and wetter conditions to the south during the following weekr. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2630 and 2550 March. Support is at 2670, 2650, and 2630 March and resistance is at 2760, 2790, and 2810 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 718.00 and 704.00 March. Support is at 729.00, 719.00, and 714.00 January, with resistance at 743.00, 750.00, and 760.00 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday after making new highs for the move. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production. Port arrivals in top grower Ivory Coast in the marketing year to date totaled 350,000 metric tons down 25% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.464 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3870, 3820, and 3800 December, with resistance at 4040, 4110, and 4140 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3430, 3370, and 3290 December, with resistance at 3630, 3660, and 3690 December.