Grains Report 11/17/2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower as the market remains pessimistic about demand potential for US Wheat. The weekly export sales report was bad once again this week and reports indicate that Ukraine is determined to use Black Sea ports to load export Wheat. Ukraine is still exporting through the Black Sea. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that it is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to average. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 5a04 December. Support is at 546, 537, and 530 December, with resistance at 573, 585, and 590 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 612, 606, and 600 December, with resistance at 649, 663, and 668 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 721, 703, and 696 December, and resistance is at 740, 746, and 752 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed sharply higher yesterday and pries are still in an uptrend. Futures had been consolidating the gains made last week for the last couple of days. The USDA reports showed that production was cut back and demand was left unchanged for an ending stocks estimate of 40.9 million cwt, from 41.8 million last month. Ending stocks levels for long grain are now 22.2 million cwt and are 15.4 million cwt for medium/short grain. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand from Latin America and Asia. The daily and weekly chart trends are still up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1684, 1664, and 1658 January and resistance is at 1748, 1760, and 1772 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday as the weekly export sales report showed very strong demand and despite some forecasts for showers and rains in central and northern Brazil. Oats closed lower. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is much too wet. These patterns could change next week as forecasts call for significant precipitation in central and northern Brazl and drier conditions to the south. The patterns could shift again the following week to hot and dry in the north and too much rain in the south, but the second week forecast is a long way off and very subject to change.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 469, 461, and 458 December, and resistance is at 480, 506, and 507 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 333, 325, and 322 December, and resistance is at 363, 371, and 374 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday as drought continued in central and northern Brazil and too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. There are some forecasts for scattered showers next week in central and northern Brazil and drier conditions in the south. It could be a pattern change but current forecasts call for rains to move south again and dry conditions to return to the north the following week. That is a long way off and no one dan br sure as to what will happen. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil were higher. The weekly export sales report was strong and strong sales have been reported to China and unknown destinations on the daily reporting system. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. These weather trends are expected to continue.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 135a3, 1336, and 1331 January, and resistance is at 1368, 1390, and 1396 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 454.00, 451.00, and 439.00 December, and resistance is at 479.00, 482.00, and 488.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5400, 5620 and 5690 December. Support is at 4980, 4900, and 4630 December, with resistance at 5350, 5430, and 5510 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Production was high but this was expected. The strong demand was not expected. Private surveyors showed that the strong demand continues for the month to date. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Canola closed higher on the weather in Brazil. The crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are bottoming on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 743.00 and 775.00 January. Support is at 706.00, 698.00, and 681.00 January, with resistance at 725.00, 731.00, and 737.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4070 and 4290 February. Support is at 3920, 3900, and 3880 February, with resistance at 4070, 4130, and 4220 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 74 Dec 165 Dec
116 Dec
84 Nov

Secember
74 Dec 165 Dec
122 Dec 84 Jan

January
63 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 84 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 852.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 852.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 867.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 875.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 860.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 860.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 875.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 882.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 830.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 775.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,820.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 248.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.684)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 140,411 lots, or 7.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 5,042 5,074 5,024 5,067 5,009 5,048 39 113,367 142,631
Mar-24 4,971 5,005 4,965 4,996 4,951 4,982 31 21,280 25,435
May-24 5,000 5,034 4,998 5,026 4,991 5,015 24 5,063 10,845
Jul-24 4,979 4,995 4,963 4,987 4,963 4,980 17 365 4,384
Sep-24 4,951 4,960 4,929 4,958 4,928 4,948 20 306 2,437
Nov-24 4,911 4,935 4,911 4,931 4,900 4,925 25 30 43
Corn
Turnover: 527,527 lots, or 1.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,553 2,557 2,536 2,543 2,550 2,546 -4 313,647 718,285
Mar-24 2,553 2,555 2,536 2,543 2,552 2,546 -6 109,326 298,350
May-24 2,577 2,581 2,564 2,570 2,579 2,573 -6 43,587 255,695
Jul-24 2,577 2,582 2,564 2,571 2,579 2,573 -6 55,884 135,605
Sep-24 2,575 2,579 2,565 2,569 2,579 2,573 -6 4,747 20,190
Nov-24 2,547 2,555 2,534 2,538 2,553 2,543 -10 336 451
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,674,263 lots, or 65.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 4,131 4,132 4,038 4,042 4,146 4,098 -48 13,456 14,704
Jan-24 4,097 4,105 4,028 4,036 4,118 4,058 -60 1,075,939 1,245,175
Mar-24 3,926 3,950 3,884 3,897 3,963 3,907 -56 70,223 100,097
May-24 3,553 3,553 3,507 3,529 3,566 3,526 -40 369,847 958,666
Jul-24 3,538 3,538 3,490 3,514 3,545 3,511 -34 60,684 480,056
Aug-24 3,594 3,594 3,550 3,568 3,597 3,565 -32 27,692 75,192
Sep-24 3,557 3,557 3,515 3,529 3,564 3,532 -32 48,580 204,908
Nov-24 3,532 3,532 3,489 3,499 3,537 3,504 -33 7,842 12,141
Palm Oil
Turnover: 866,022 lots, or 65.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 7,526 7,526 7,346 7,414 7,534 7,496 -38 1,898 3,874
Jan-24 7,590 7,610 7,418 7,490 7,612 7,508 -104 698,636 411,021
Feb-24 7,692 7,692 7,500 7,568 7,692 7,578 -114 11,639 34,280
Mar-24 7,730 7,738 7,556 7,620 7,742 7,630 -112 5,195 24,841
Apr-24 7,732 7,764 7,584 7,644 7,758 7,658 -100 4,925 14,934
May-24 7,736 7,770 7,586 7,644 7,758 7,666 -92 137,984 177,561
Jun-24 7,702 7,726 7,556 7,610 7,724 7,616 -108 3,010 6,464
Jul-24 7,620 7,654 7,494 7,540 7,658 7,558 -100 136 1,360
Aug-24 7,552 7,552 7,426 7,448 7,572 7,472 -100 53 3,630
Sep-24 7,458 7,500 7,342 7,366 7,504 7,394 -110 2,483 6,350
Oct-24 7,392 7,422 7,288 7,336 7,438 7,346 -92 30 77
Nov-24 7,368 7,368 7,238 7,250 7,382 7,296 -86 33 62
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,056,656 lots, or 87.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 8,482 8,486 8,302 8,354 8,482 8,442 -40 4,790 1,226
Jan-24 8,440 8,454 8,262 8,310 8,470 8,346 -124 833,993 569,992
Mar-24 8,340 8,352 8,170 8,210 8,354 8,244 -110 15,237 41,302
May-24 8,066 8,108 7,924 7,956 8,094 7,998 -96 182,445 259,736
Jul-24 7,918 7,952 7,796 7,816 7,956 7,858 -98 8,662 136,666
Aug-24 7,894 7,930 7,776 7,780 7,928 7,828 -100 4,332 33,039
Sep-24 7,834 7,860 7,708 7,720 7,862 7,766 -96 6,231 12,055
Nov-24 7,794 7,810 7,620 7,668 7,820 7,722 -98 966 4,283
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322