Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday on buying related to market positive CPI dta released by the US government and the sharp move lower in the US Dollar. The weekly export sales report was strong and helped support prices. The monthly USDA reports were mostly ignored as market factors. USDA increased yields and production to 13.090 million bales. Ending stocks levels increased to 320 million bales from 280 million last month. World ending stocks levels were also increased. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 74.07 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 85,306 bales, from 85,306 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8140 and 8480 December. Support is at 78.00, 76.90, and 74.80 December, with resistance of 80.80, 81.50 and 83.40 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher to limit up yesterday, and the trends on the daily charts are turning up. January was the leader on the way up. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 370.00, 362.00, and 356.00 January, with resistance at 392.00, 400.00, and 407.00 January.
General Comments: Both markets closed lower yesterday on increased exports from Brazil despite reports of logistical and weather related problems in Brazil ports. Cecafe said that exports were 4.4 million bags in October, up 22% from the previous year. There was some buying on the low certified stocks seen in New York. The stocks are at 24 year lows according to Reuters. Showers and rains are now being reported in central and southern growing areas of Brazil, with biggest amounts in the south by far. Loading at and transportation to ports has been affected by the rain as well. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas remains around the market. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.297 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 162.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 183.00 December. Support is at 171.00, 169.00, and 166.00 December, and resistance is at 179.00, 182.00 and 185.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2630 and 2610 January. Support is at 2440, 2400, and 2360 January, with resistance at 2570, 2600, and 2620 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday along with the other tropical markets. There are still port delays in Brazil and too much rain in southern areas of the country. North and central areas are too dry and hot. The market is still short of Sugar. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2710, 2670, and 2650 March and resistance is at 2790, 2810, and 2840 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 730.00, 719.00, and 714.00 January, with resistance at 750.00, 760.00, and 766.00 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday after making new highs for the move as some speculative long liquidation hit the pit. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production. Port arrivals in top grower Ivory Coast in the marketing year to date totaled 350,000 metric tons down 25% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.496 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3870, 3820, and 3800 December, with resistance at 4000, 4110, and 4140 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 3570 December. Support4is at 3490, 3430, and 3370 December, with resistance at 3630, 3660, and 3690 December.