Grains Report 11/15/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 16, 2023 166 Oct 27, 2023
SOYBEAN November Nov 16, 2023 73 Nov 14, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower despite a much weaker US Dolar as the market remains pessimistic about demand potential for US Wheat. Ukraine is still exporting through the Black Sea. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that it is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to averages. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 567, 564, and 555 December, with resistance at 599, 604, and 636 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 630, 624, and 612 December, with resistance at 668, 688, and 697 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 721, 703, and 696 December, and resistance is at 740, 746, and 752 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday. Futures have been consolidating the gains made last week for the last couple of days. The USDA reports showed that production was cut back and demand was left unchanged for an ending stocks estimate of 40.9 million cwt, from 41.8 million last month. Ending stocks levels for long grain are now 22.2 million cwt and are 15.4 million cwt for medium/short grain. The daily and weekly chart trends are still up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1658, 1637, and 1615 January and resistance is at 1688, 1694, and 1702 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday in sympathy with the rally in Soybeans and on weather conditions in Brazil. Oats closed mostly higher. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is much too wet. The weather patterns seem stuck in South America.
Overnight News: Japan bought 2124,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 469, 461, and 458 December, and resistance is at 506, 507, and 509 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 396 and 408 December. Support is at 325, 322, and 316 December, and resistance is at 363, 371, and 374 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher yesterday as drought continued in central and northern Brazil and too much rain was reported for southern Brazil. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil were higher. The weekly export sales report was strong and strong sales have been reported to China and unknown destinations on the daily reporting system. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. These weather trends are expected to continue.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1361, 1350, and 1336 January, and resistance is at 1398, 1406, and 1420 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 464.00, 451.00, and 493.00 December, and resistance is at 476.00, 482.00, and 488.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5400, 5620 and 5690 December. Support is at 5180, 4980, and 4900 December, with resistance at 5350, 5430, and 5510 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Production was high but this was expected. The strong demand was not expected. Private surveyors showed that the strong demand continues for the month to date. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Canola closed higher on the weather in Brazil. The crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are bottoming on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 743.00 and 775.00 January. Support is at 706.00, 698.00, and 681.00 January, with resistance at 725.00, 731.00, and 737.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4070 and 4290 February. Support is at 3900, 3860, and 3820 February, with resistance at 4010, 4070, and 4130 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 74 Dec 165 Dec
116 Dec
84 Nov

Secember
74 Dec 165 Dec
122 Dec 84 Jan

January
63 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 84 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 867.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 867.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 887.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 895.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 875.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 875.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 895.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 902.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 830.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 785.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,850.00 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 249.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6707)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 149,493 lots, or 7.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 4,952 5,010 4,950 5,007 4,937 4,981 44 127,084 149,614
Mar-24 4,900 4,946 4,895 4,943 4,884 4,919 35 16,392 26,664
May-24 4,941 4,987 4,939 4,987 4,927 4,964 37 5,290 11,150
Jul-24 4,913 4,950 4,911 4,949 4,901 4,930 29 343 4,618
Sep-24 4,881 4,919 4,880 4,918 4,866 4,897 31 331 2,681
Nov-24 5,179 5,179 4,828 4,897 4,866 4,891 25 53 41
Corn
Turnover: 477,295 lots, or 12.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,542 2,549 2,537 2,544 2,533 2,543 10 287,512 715,105
Mar-24 2,546 2,551 2,539 2,545 2,534 2,545 11 81,800 286,886
May-24 2,580 2,580 2,568 2,572 2,567 2,573 6 35,933 249,435
Jul-24 2,570 2,579 2,570 2,573 2,570 2,575 5 36,732 131,078
Sep-24 2,578 2,582 2,571 2,575 2,567 2,576 9 35,218 20,923
Nov-24 2,564 2,575 2,556 2,557 2,567 2,563 -4 100 74
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,321,354 lots, or 52.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 4,112 4,173 4,112 4,162 4,124 4,146 22 21,075 21,063
Jan-24 4,094 4,145 4,086 4,138 4,097 4,118 21 894,691 1,302,100
Mar-24 3,927 3,986 3,921 3,977 3,924 3,957 33 42,584 102,816
May-24 3,544 3,587 3,544 3,580 3,559 3,569 10 253,406 946,629
Jul-24 3,527 3,562 3,524 3,557 3,524 3,546 22 37,169 475,774
Aug-24 3,590 3,614 3,581 3,608 3,588 3,597 9 24,002 75,251
Sep-24 3,556 3,585 3,553 3,577 3,565 3,569 4 39,763 202,237
Nov-24 3,565 3,565 3,527 3,544 3,565 3,540 -25 8,664 5,726
Palm Oil
Turnover: 875,963 lots, or 66.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 7,442 7,558 7,424 7,558 7,340 7,502 162 3,215 8,634
Jan-24 7,502 7,636 7,496 7,634 7,406 7,582 176 735,396 457,469
Feb-24 7,578 7,720 7,576 7,708 7,500 7,668 168 8,173 33,798
Mar-24 7,624 7,768 7,614 7,762 7,522 7,718 196 7,139 24,985
Apr-24 7,648 7,784 7,632 7,782 7,550 7,728 178 4,849 14,802
May-24 7,646 7,788 7,626 7,782 7,542 7,728 186 111,351 171,858
Jun-24 7,592 7,750 7,592 7,744 7,508 7,700 192 2,346 6,484
Jul-24 7,568 7,686 7,560 7,674 7,500 7,638 138 201 1,312
Aug-24 7,492 7,610 7,492 7,600 7,434 7,570 136 107 2,696
Sep-24 7,410 7,538 7,408 7,528 7,330 7,494 164 3,108 5,423
Oct-24 7,354 7,456 7,354 7,448 7,268 7,416 148 61 71
Nov-24 7,418 7,418 7,350 7,406 7,268 7,392 124 17 9
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 948,751 lots, or 79.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-23 8,418 8,522 8,398 8,504 8,320 8,456 136 3,476 11,011
Jan-24 8,370 8,494 8,362 8,474 8,294 8,440 146 761,847 596,444
Mar-24 8,228 8,358 8,226 8,344 8,138 8,314 176 13,468 40,657
May-24 7,968 8,122 7,956 8,112 7,896 8,048 152 151,406 254,258
Jul-24 7,876 7,990 7,858 7,980 7,792 7,946 154 6,231 135,164
Aug-24 7,854 7,968 7,836 7,948 7,764 7,926 162 3,864 32,984
Sep-24 7,760 7,916 7,760 7,882 7,702 7,856 154 6,038 11,759
Nov-24 7,718 7,846 7,712 7,822 7,702 7,798 96 2,421 1,669
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322