Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher yesterday. The weekly export sales report was strong and helped support prices. The monthly USDA reports were mostly ignored as market factors. USDA increased yields and production to 13.090 million bales. Ending stocks levels increased to 320 million bales from 280 million last month. World ending stocks levels were also increased. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 72.53 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 85,306 bales, from 85,206 bales yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 67% harvested, from 57% last week, 70% last year, and 63% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 76.90, 74.80, and 73.20 December, with resistance of 78.00, 78.50 and 80.80 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday, and the trends on the daily charts are turning up. January was the leader n the way up. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 356.00, 347.00, and 336.00 January, with resistance at 382.00, 377.00, and 392.00 January.
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday on reports of logistical and weather related problems in Brazil ports. There was also some buying on the low certified stocks seen in New York. The stocks are at 24 year lows according to Reuters. Showers and rains are now being reported in central and southern growing areas of Brazil, with biggest amounts in the south by far. Loading at and transportation to ports has been affected by the rain as well. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas remains around the market. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.302 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 163.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 183.00 December. Support is at 171.00, 169.00, and 166.00 December, and resistance is at 182.00, 185.00 and 189.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2630 and 2610 January. Support is at 2440, 2400, and 2360 January, with resistance at 2570, 2600, and 2620 January.
DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Rose 22% in October to 4.4M Bags, Cecafe Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports jumped in October as sales abroad of robusta coffee soared amid production problems in other countries that also grow the variety, according to exporters group Cecafe.
The South American country exported 4.4 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, an increase of 22% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said. Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee rose 8% to 3.4 million bags, while exports of robusta beans more than quintupled to 662,051 bags from 114,247 bags a year earlier.
Exports of ground, roast and soluble coffee fell 7.4% to 274,164 bags, Cecafe said.
Brazil is the world’s biggest producer of arabica coffee and second-biggest grower of robusta, after Vietnam and just ahead of Indonesia. The El Nino weather phenomenon has provoked heavy rains in Indonesia that has damaged some crops, while farmers in Vietnam have reduced the area planted with robusta, according to the USDA.
“Problems in the harvests of important producers of this variety have been directing buyers” to Brazil’s production of robusta, said Cecafe President Márcio Ferreira.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday. There are still port delays in Brazil and too much rain in southern areas of the country. North and central areas are too dry and hot. The market is still short of Sugar. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2710, 2670, and 2650 March and resistance is at 2790, 2810, and 2840 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 734.00, 730.00, and 719.00 January, with resistance at 750.00, 760.00, and 766.00 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and at new highs for the move. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports dropped 16.2% for the marketing year when compared to last year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production. Port arrivals in top grower Ivory Coast in the marketing year to date totaled 350,000 metric tons down 25% from last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.507 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3950 December. Support is at 3970, 3870, and 3820 December, with resistance at 4060, 4090, and 4120 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 3570 December. Support4is at 3490, 3430, and 3370 December, with resistance at 3590, 3620, and 3650 December.