Softs Report 11/13/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower last week, but rallied late in the week despite bearish USDA reports. It appears that the bearish reports ere already part of the price and now the market is trying to form at least a short term bottom. On the charts The weekly export sales report was strong and helped support prices. The monthly USDA reports were mostly ignored as market factors. USDA increased yields and production to 13.090 million bales. The demand side showed a little lower domestic demand but unchanged export demand. Ending stocks levels were increased to 320 million bales from 280 million last month. World ending stocks levels were also increased. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 72.53 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 85,206 bales, from 84,374 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 76.90, 74.80, and 73.20 December, with resistance of 77.90, 78.50 and 80.80 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 284,742
: Positions :
: 37,343 29,787 78,281 83,460 151,220 71,080 12,782 270,165 272,071: 14,577 12,671
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: -208) :
: -720 431 3,990 -2,539 -5,304 -716 -633 16 -1,515: -224 1,307
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 10.5 27.5 29.3 53.1 25.0 4.5 94.9 95.5: 5.1 4.5
: Total Traders: 300 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 95 114 57 64 47 22 255 230:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week with most of the cart damage done early in the week, and the trends on the daily charts are mixed. January assumed top step position with the expiration of November futures and the change accounted for a large part of the decline on the weekly charts. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 346.00, 347.00, and 336.00 January, with resistance at 382.00, 377.00, and 392.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,889 :
: Positions :
: 1,703 6,488 1,037 0 6 3,826 468 310 927 885 1,722 :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: -252 -286 -8 -50 6 55 2 14 55 -16 209 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 54.6 8.7 0.0 0.1 32.2 3.9 2.6 7.8 7.4 14.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 8 9 4 0 . 21 . 5 9 17 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher last week on reports of logistical and weather related problems in Brazil ports. Showers and rains are now being reported in central and southern growing areas of Brazil, with biggest amounts in the south by far. Loading at and transportation to ports has been affected by the rain as well. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas remains around the market. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.302 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 161.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 183.00 December. Support is at 172.00, 169.00, and 166.00 December, and resistance is at 179.00, 183.00 and 185.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2630 and 2610 January. Support is at 2400, 2360, and 2300 January, with resistance at 2450, 2470, and 2500 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 241,991
: Positions :
: 30,930 28,603 77,100 58,923 115,429 64,985 10,162 231,938 231,295: 10,053 10,696
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: 4,669) :
: -345 -4,824 6,043 -1,783 3,862 1,427 -31 5,343 5,050: -674 -381
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8 11.8 31.9 24.3 47.7 26.9 4.2 95.8 95.6: 4.2 4.4
: Total Traders: 368 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 96 124 102 104 47 30 319 285:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/07/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
135,304 61,379 68,522 3,145 5,522 2,065
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 45.4% 50.6% 2.3% 4.1% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
155 49 41 6 12 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
34,298 17,156 8,040 2,126 11,575 17,834
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
25.3% 12.7% 5.9% 1.6% 8.6% 13.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 17 16 11 10 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,417 4,590
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.7% 3.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week as future shied away from making new contract highs. There are still port delays in Brazil and too much rain in central and southern areas of the country. The market is still short of Sugar. There are still forecasts for and reports of rain in Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower. Unica said that the Brazil Center South sugar crush was 34.6 million tons, up 8/1% from last year. Mills produced 2.4 million tons of Sugar, up 9.4% from last year, and 1.8 billion liters of Ethanol, up 11% from last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2710, 2670, and 2650 March and resistance is at 2790, 2810, and 2840 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 736.00, 730.00, and 719.00 January, with resistance at 750.00, 760.00, and 766.00 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,112,667
: Positions :
: 188,051 73,071 277,161 307,411 646,350 247,554 69,030 1,020,177 1,065,613: 92,490 47,054
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: 6,325) :
: -15,308 271 14,060 8,655 -7,319 5,181 3,440 12,589 10,452: -6,264 -4,127
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.9 6.6 24.9 27.6 58.1 22.2 6.2 91.7 95.8: 8.3 4.2
: Total Traders: 240 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 37 71 67 68 40 20 216 170:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/07/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
93,021 33,982 65,502 7,298 8,488 2,107
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 36.5% 70.4% 7.8% 9.1% 2.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
136 38 47 7 8 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
31,908 4,011 5,227 2,955 2,490 2,646
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
34.3% 4.3% 5.6% 3.2% 2.7% 2.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
44 7 14 8 7 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,898 2,550
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.4% 2.7%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and at new highs for the move. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports dropped 16.2% for the marketing year when compared to last year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production. Port arrivals in top grower Ivory Coast in the week to Nov. 5 totaled 63,000 metric tons, up from 53,000 tons in the same week last season. For the season-to-date, however, they are down 16.7% from the same period last season.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.517 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3950 December. Support is at 3970, 3870, and 3820 December, with resistance at 4000, 4030, and 4060 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 3570 December. Support4is at 3590, 3330, and 3370 December, with resistance at 3630, 3560, and 3590 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 465,679
: Positions :
: 85,718 43,874 186,380 122,960 205,015 55,727 17,875 450,785 453,144: 14,894 12,535
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: -1,153) :
: -2,974 5,940 2,003 963 -7,219 -795 -1,857 -802 -1,132: -351 -21
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.4 9.4 40.0 26.4 44.0 12.0 3.8 96.8 97.3: 3.2 2.7
: Total Traders: 266 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 82 88 44 44 35 19 209 195:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/07/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
579,261 299,687 331,556 28,929 72,968 50,089
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 51.7% 57.2% 5.0% 12.6% 8.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
165 48 39 17 9 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
69,922 3,568 36,675 12,073 6,153 76,655
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.1% 0.6% 6.3% 2.1% 1.1% 13.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
50 3 24 17 12 24
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,231 1,597
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.9% 0.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322