Grains Report 11/13/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November Nov 14, 2023 13 Nov 07, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower for HRW, but higher for SRW and HRS last week in lifeless trading. The USDA estimates that showed higher than expected ending stocks estimates or the US and the world. USDA increased imports by 10 million bushels and cut back slightly on domestic demand while leaving export demand unchanged. US ending stocks were estimated at 684 million bushels, from 670 million last month. USDA increased world Wheat production and also demand for ending stocks estimates of 258.7 million tons, from 258.1 million last month Ukraine is still exporting through the Black Sea. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that it is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to averages. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 571, 564, and 555 December, with resistance at 599, 604, and 636 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 630, 624, and 612 December, with resistance at 661, 668, and 688 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 721, 703, and 696 December, and resistance is at 740, 746, and 752 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 534,771
: Positions :
: 60,655 153,418 193,502 103,001 79,882 136,738 70,631 493,896 497,433: 40,875 37,338
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: 14,558) :
: 1,450 9,935 11,055 -554 -6,370 3,872 -500 15,823 14,120: -1,265 439
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 28.7 36.2 19.3 14.9 25.6 13.2 92.4 93.0: 7.6 7.0
: Total Traders: 404 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 111 110 134 106 88 47 35 335 307:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 246,478
: Positions :
: 30,441 69,782 69,534 49,589 57,511 76,033 27,192 225,596 224,019: 20,882 22,459
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: -779) :
: 267 1,737 1,147 -2,864 -4,770 278 792 -1,173 -1,094: 394 315
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.4 28.3 28.2 20.1 23.3 30.8 11.0 91.5 90.9: 8.5 9.1
: Total Traders: 220 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 54 64 56 65 37 23 171 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 81,928 :
: Positions :
: 52,427 25,595 2,488 734 499 3,857 32,739 4,672 1,938 1,728 5,432 :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: 4,049 -652 32 -28 284 -1,080 2,721 -743 -227 671 762 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 64.0 31.2 3.0 0.9 0.6 4.7 40.0 5.7 2.4 2.1 6.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 122 :
: 57 47 4 . 4 9 24 10 8 8 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again Friday in part on the USDA reports. Buying was seen all week as the harvest has ended and the crops are in the bin. The USDA reports showed that production was cut back and demand was left unchanged for an ending stocks estimate of 40.9 million cwt, from 41.8 million last month. The production losses were spread between long and medium/short grains. Ending stocks levels for long grain are now 22.2 million cwt and are 15.4 million cwt for medium/short grain. Futures on Friday smashed through some important resistance areas and completed a sharp five day rally. The weekly chart trends have turned up.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1658, 1637, and 1615 January and resistance is at 1694, 1702, and 1712 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,614 :
: Positions :
: 5,675 9,670 90 0 0 2,069 356 0 1,313 401 376 :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: -117 -271 2 0 0 253 -67 -5 -67 166 -310 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.9 83.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 17.8 3.1 0.0 11.3 3.4 3.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 18 19 . 0 0 11 . 0 9 5 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week and made new contract lows in response to the USDA reports. USDA increased yields and production much more than expected and US production is now estimated at 15.234 billion bushels, from 15.064 billion last month. Demand was increased slightly for just about all categories but ending stocks were higher at 2.156 billion bushels, from 2.111 billion last month. World ending stocks were increased to 315 million tons, from 312.4 million last month. The weekly export sales report was strong last week. Oats closed lower but made a hook reversal higher on Friday and could see additional buying this week. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is much too wet. The weather patterns seem stuck in South America.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 143,637 tons of uS Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 456 and 443 December. Support is at 458, 452, and 446 December, and resistance is at 468, 478, and 486 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 324, 322, and 316 December, and resistance is at 363, 371, and 374 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,775,914
: Positions :
: 138,230 320,607 527,833 567,582 592,312 354,975 117,545 1,588,621 1,558,297: 187,293 217,617
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: -12,700) :
: -9,465 24,295 -10,163 -444 -31,420 4,052 8,428 -16,018 -8,859: 3,318 -3,841
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.8 18.1 29.7 32.0 33.4 20.0 6.6 89.5 87.7: 10.5 12.3
: Total Traders: 762 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 171 204 358 344 51 33 652 632:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 3,932 :
: Positions :
: 1,307 2,300 109 0 18 355 215 0 258 108 192 :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: 8 66 -2 -61 -1 6 44 0 80 -76 -19 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 33.2 58.5 2.8 0.0 0.5 9.0 5.5 0.0 6.6 2.7 4.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20 :
: 9 6 . 0 . . . 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little higher last week despite late week selling that developed in response to the USDA reports. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil were higher. The weekly export sales report was strong and strong sales have been reported to China and unknown destinations on the daily reporting system. But, USDA issued bearish reports. USDA estimated yields and production a little higher at 4.129 billion bushels, from 3.104 billion last month. The trade had expected a slight decline in production. Ending stocks were 245 million bushels, from 220 million last month. World stocks were estimated at 114.5 million tons, from 115.6 million last month. Futures have rallied a lot lately and were due a correction. The selling could be running out of steam as futures are just above support areas on the daily charts. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. These weather trends are expected to continue.
Overnight News: China compro 204,000 toneladas de frijol de soya americano.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1334 and 1297 January. Support is at 1326, 1331, and 1319 January, and resistance is at 1361, 1382, and 1388 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 429.00, 423.00, and 422.00 December, and resistance is at 458.00, 464.00, and 470.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5000, 4900, and 4630 December, with resistance at 5210, 5300, and 5350 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 813,932
: Positions :
: 70,086 62,252 208,736 309,270 427,858 168,535 44,402 756,626 743,248: 57,306 70,684
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: -191,150) :
: 4,896 -9,886 -94,819 -77,201 -65,955 -14,965 -13,488 -182,090 -184,149: -9,060 -7,002
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.6 7.6 25.6 38.0 52.6 20.7 5.5 93.0 91.3: 7.0 8.7
: Total Traders: 545 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 123 162 204 230 47 29 447 461:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 542,089
: Positions :
: 52,953 69,577 142,279 168,773 268,572 143,719 33,912 507,725 514,341: 34,364 27,749
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: 16,393) :
: 3,333 9,425 -5,791 12,274 11,894 5,195 2,368 15,011 17,897: 1,381 -1,504
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 12.8 26.2 31.1 49.5 26.5 6.3 93.7 94.9: 6.3 5.1
: Total Traders: 305 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 72 97 87 86 44 24 255 233:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 588,359
: Positions :
: 89,963 24,295 163,972 134,780 353,232 143,049 12,079 531,764 553,578: 56,594 34,780
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: 19,765) :
: 12,429 3,009 -241 1,754 15,385 5,379 -363 19,321 17,790: 444 1,975
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.3 4.1 27.9 22.9 60.0 24.3 2.1 90.4 94.1: 9.6 5.9
: Total Traders: 308 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 44 93 108 105 43 18 278 227:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on news of strong export demand from MPOB. It as closed for a holiday today. Production was high but this was expected. The strong demand was not expected. Private surveyors showed that the strong demand continues for the month to date. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Canola closed higher and near the highs of the week. The crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are bottoming on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 681.00, 673.00, and 660.00 January, with resistance at 696.00, 704.00, and 711.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3730, 3710, and 3650 January, with resistance at 3810, 3820, and 3880 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 44,917 :
: Positions :
: 35,947 19,656 750 4,800 520 0 1,280 80 669 11,630 6,951 :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: 380 260 50 90 0 0 0 0 -40 40 40 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 80.0 43.8 1.7 10.7 1.2 0.0 2.8 0.2 1.5 25.9 15.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 34 :
: 10 12 . . . 0 . . . 10 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 281,797 :
: Positions :
: 228,359 124,952 8,557 2,720 1,465 3,201 109,370 23,321 6,557 9,795 8,440 :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 :
: 5,667 -3,607 594 391 -104 -1,568 9,013 1,103 -706 -1,457 -5,550 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.0 44.3 3.0 1.0 0.5 1.1 38.8 8.3 2.3 3.5 3.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 298 :
: 51 54 . 6 4 9 94 21 57 51 39 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 74 Dec 165 Dec
116 Dec
84 Nov

Secember
74 Dec 165 Dec
122 Dec 84 Jan

January
63 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 84 Jan

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