Softs Report 11/10/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday despite bearish USDA reports. The weekly export sales report was strong and helped support prices. The monthly USDA reports were mostly ignored as market factors. USDA increased yields and production to 13.090 million bales. The demand side showed a little lower domestic demand but unchanged export demand. Ending stocks levels were increased to 320 million bales from 280 million last month. World ending stocks levels were also increased. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 71.73 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 84,374 bales, from 83,652 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 74.80, 73.20, and 72.60 December, with resistance of 77.90, 78.50 and 80.80 December.

Cottonseed Production – United States: 2022 and Forecasted November 1, 2023
—————————————————————————–
: Production
State :———————————————————–
: 2022 : 2023 1/
—————————————————————————–
: 1,000 tons
United States …: 4,415.0 3,985.0
—————————————————————————–
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and United States: 2022 and
Forecasted November 1, 2023
——————————————————————————————–
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production 1/
:————————————————————————–
Type and State : : : : 2023 : :
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 :———————–: 2022 : 2023
: : : : October 1 :November 1 : :
——————————————————————————————–
: — 1,000 acres — ———- pounds ———- 1,000 bales 2/
Upland :
United States …: 7,131.5 7,879.8 942 759 776 13,998.0 12,736.0 :
American Pima :
United States …: 176.2 141.1 1,280 1,211 1,204 470.0 354.0
All :
United States …: 7,307.7 8,020.9 950 767 783 14,468.0 13,090.0
——————————————————————————————–
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Item Oct Nov
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 11.22 13.76 10.23 10.23
Harvested 10.27 7.31 8.02 8.02
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 819 950 767 783
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 3.15 4.05 4.25 4.25
Production 17.52 14.47 12.82 13.09
Imports 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 20.68 18.52 17.07 17.35
Domestic Use 2.55 2.05 2.15 2.05
Exports, Total 14.48 12.77 12.20 12.20
Use, Total 17.03 14.82 14.35 14.25
Unaccounted 2/ -0.40 -0.55 -0.08 -0.11
Ending Stocks 4.05 4.25 2.80 3.20
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 91.4 84.8 80.0 77.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 642 – 18 November 2023

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2023/24 Proj.
World
Oct 82.84 112.60 43.23 115.79 43.24 -0.28 79.92
Nov 83.04 113.46 43.30 115.30 43.31 -0.31 81.50
World Less China
Oct 45.43 85.60 33.23 78.29 43.14 -0.28 43.12
Nov 45.64 86.46 32.80 77.80 43.21 -0.31 44.20
United States
Oct 4.25 12.82 0.01 2.15 12.20 -0.08 2.80
Nov 4.25 13.09 0.01 2.05 12.20 -0.11 3.20
Total Foreign
Oct 78.59 99.79 43.22 113.64 31.04 -0.20 77.12
Nov 78.79 100.37 43.30 113.25 31.11 -0.20 78.30
Major Exporters 4/
Oct 29.62 57.32 2.04 33.22 27.30 -0.20 28.67
Nov 29.76 57.54 2.04 33.30 27.00 -0.20 29.26
Major Importers 8/
Oct 46.07 39.39 38.72 76.43 2.20 0.00 45.55
Nov 46.07 39.26 38.79 75.95 2.30 0.00 45.88
================================================================================
WASDE – 642 – 28 November 2023

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday, and the trends on the daily charts are mixed. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 367.00, 344.00, and 336.00 January, with resistance at 382.00, 377.00, and 392.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher Gin on reports of logistical and weather related problems in Brazil ports. Showers and rains are now being reported in central and southern growing areas of Brazil, with biggest amounts in the south by far. Loading at and transportation to ports has been affected by the rain as well. Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas remains strong. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve with the Vietnam harvest progressing. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.362 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 161.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 175.00 and 183.00 December. Support is at 172.00, 169.00, and 166.00 December, and resistance is at 176.00, 179.00 and 182.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2450 and 2530 January. Support is at 2410, 2360, and 2300 January, with resistance at 2470, 2500, and 2530 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on port delays in Brazil and too much rain in central and southern areas of the country. The market is still short of Sugar. There are still forecasts for and reports of rain in Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. The Brail rains is underway now and have been heavy in the south. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2760, 2720, and 2700 March and resistance is at 2810, 2840, and 2870 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 776.00 and 804.00 Marh. Support is at 736.00, 730.00, and 719.00 January, with resistance at 760.00, 766.00, and 772.00 January.

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Up 8.1% in 2H Oct, Unica Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the second half of October compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 34.6 million metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 8.1% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Friday. They produced 2.4 million tons of sugar, up 9.4%, and made 1.8 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 11%.
The production mix for the second half of October was 49% sugar to 51% ethanol, unchanged from the same period a year ago.
In the six-month period from April 1 through Oct. 31, mills in the region crushed 560.5 million tons of cane, up 14% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 23% to 37.2 million tons, and ethanol output climbed 10% to 27.0 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Oct. 31 was 49% sugar to 51% ethanol, compared with 46% sugar and 54% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.

Sugarbeet Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2022 and
Forecasted November 1, 2023
[Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except California]
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2023 : :
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 :————————-: 2022 : 2023
: : : : October 1 : November 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: — 1,000 acres — ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
California 1/ : 17.7 17.6 45.8 45.8 45.8 811 806
Colorado …..: 20.5 20.6 28.7 27.3 28.2 588 581
Idaho ……..: 170.0 173.0 38.1 39.2 39.4 6,477 6,816
Michigan …..: 138.0 131.0 28.8 33.4 33.4 3,974 4,375
Minnesota ….: 431.0 438.0 25.7 28.5 29.5 11,077 12,921
Montana ……: 33.5 23.5 30.5 33.7 33.7 1,022 792
Nebraska …..: 39.6 46.0 24.2 28.4 28.5 958 1,311
North Dakota .: 249.0 228.0 26.1 27.7 28.9 6,499 6,589
Oregon …….: 7.9 10.4 33.9 36.8 36.8 268 383
Washington …: 2.0 2.0 44.1 44.8 44.8 88 90
Wyoming ……: 27.9 28.5 29.1 29.6 29.6 812 844
United States : 1,137.1 1,118.6 28.6 31.1 31.7 32,574 35,508
——————————————————————————————
1/ Relates to year of planting for overwintered beets in southern California.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and
United States: 2022 and Forecasted November 1, 2023
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2023 : :
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 :————————-: 2022 : 2023
: : : : October 1 : November 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: 1,000 acres ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
Florida ……: 401.9 399.0 44.6 45.5 45.4 17,931 18,115
Louisiana ….: 497.1 505.0 32.3 27.7 28.3 16,035 14,292
Texas ……..: 31.2 19.0 22.6 21.5 22.2 705 422
United States : 930.2 923.0 37.3 35.2 35.6 34,671 32,829
——————————————————————————————
1/ Net tons.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Item Oct Nov
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1705 1820 1977 1875
Production 2/ 9157 9249 8969 9229
Beet Sugar 5155 5187 5151 5363
Cane Sugar 4002 4062 3817 3866
Florida 1934 1983 2037 2037
Louisiana 1944 2002 1738 1787
Texas 124 76 42 42
Imports 3646 3614 3277 3130
TRQ 3/ 1579 1862 1617 1457
Other Program 4/ 298 141 200 200
Non-program 1769 1611 1459 1474
Mexico 1379 1156 1284 1199
High-tier tariff/other 390 455 175 275
Total Supply 14508 14684 14222 14234
Exports 29 82 35 35
Deliveries 12578 12589 12630 12630
Food 12470 12473 12525 12525
Other 5/ 107 116 105 105
Miscellaneous 81 138 0 0
Total Use 12688 12809 12665 12665
Ending Stocks 1820 1875 1557 1569
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 14.6 12.3 12.4
================================================================================

Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2022/23 Est.
Oct 964 5224 285 4627 1011 836
Nov 964 5224 285 4627 1011 835
2023/24 Proj.
Oct 836 5575 322 4699 1124 909
Nov 835 5330 434 4648 1051 900
================================================================================
WASDE – 642 – 17 November 2023

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday, and the trends are still up in both markets. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports dropped 16.2% for the marketing year when compared to last year. The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report that many areas have too much rain that has caused harvest delays and could lead to disease. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production. Port arrivals in top grower Ivory Coast in the week to Nov. 5 totaled 63,000 metric tons, up from 53,000 tons in the same week last season. For the season-to-date, however, they are down 16.7% from the same period last season.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.539 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3950 December. Support is at 3870, 3820, and 3800 December, with resistance at 3970, 4000, and 4030 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3370, 3330, and 3290 December, with resistance at 3440, 3470, and 3500 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 31, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 465,679
: Positions :
: 85,718 43,874 186,380 122,960 205,015 55,727 17,875 450,785 453,144: 14,894 12,535
: :
: Changes from: October 24, 2023 (Change in open interest: -1,153) :
: -2,974 5,940 2,003 963 -7,219 -795 -1,857 -802 -1,132: -351 -21
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.4 9.4 40.0 26.4 44.0 12.0 3.8 96.8 97.3: 3.2 2.7
: :
: Total Traders: 266 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 82 88 44 44 35 19 209 195:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/31/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
561,568 292,565 323,134 27,204 73,311 48,733
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 52.1% 57.5% 4.8% 13.1% 8.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
160 49 40 15 8 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
71,152 3,850 30,468 10,696 5,550 74,968
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.7% 0.7% 5.4% 1.9% 1.0% 13.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 5 25 15 12 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,782 1,554
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 0.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322