Grains Report 11/10/2023

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Friday, November 10, 2023

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024
jslsa@comcast.net

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DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November Nov 13, 2023 18 Nov 07, 2023

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2023 Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn Production 15,234.0 15,076 14,900-15,302 15,064
Corn Yield 174.9 173.2 172.0-175.7 173.0
Harvested Acres 87.1 87.1 86.6-87.1 87.1
Soybean Production 4,129.0 4,098 4,037-4,162 4,104
Soybean Yield 49.9 49.5 49.0-50.3 49.6
Harvwsted Acres 82.8 82.7 82.1-82.8 82.8
****
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 2,156.0 2,129 1,996-2,498 2,111
Soybeans 245.0 221 190-261 220
Wheat 684.0 670 650-696 670
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2022-23
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 299.2 297.8 295.6-298.2 298.1
Soybeans 100.3 102.0 101.9-102.8 101.9
Wheat 269.6 267.6 267.5-267.8 267.6
2023-24
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Oct.
Corn 315.0 312.0 309.0-314.0 312.4
Soybeans 114.5 115.6 114.0-117.8 115.6
Wheat 258.7 257.9 256.0-259.4 258.1

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Nov 9
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
23/24 22/23 21/22: 23/24 22/23 21/22: 23/24 22/23 21/22
Soybeans 245.0 268.0 274.0:168.29 170.95 154.25:400.42 372.24 360.43
Brazil na na na: 97.50 95.51 79.06:163.00 158.00 130.50
Argentina na na na: 4.60 4.19 2.86: 48.00 25.00 43.90
China na na na: 0.10 0.09 0.10: 20.50 20.28 16.40
Soyoil 1,577 1,602 1,991: 11.50 11.39 12.25: 61.93 59.03 59.27
Corn 2,156 1,361 1,377:199.62 180.94 206.59: 1,221 1,157 1,217
China na na na: 0.02 0.01 0.00:277.00 277.20 272.55
Argentina na na na: 41.00 23.00 34.69: 55.00 34.00 49.50
S.Africa na na na: 3.40 3.80 3.65: 16.80 17.10 16.14
Cotton(a) 3.20 4.25 4.05: 43.31 37.03 43.20:113.46 116.65 114.55
All Wheat 684 582 698:205.01 220.42 202.76:781.98 789.49 781.01
China na na na: 0.90 0.95 0.88:137.00 137.72 136.95
European
Union na na na: 37.50 35.08 31.93:134.30 134.19 138.16
Canada na na na: 23.00 25.57 15.12: 31.00 34.34 22.42
Argentina na na na: 10.00 4.00 16.00: 15.00 12.55 22.15
Australia na na na: 17.50 31.82 27.51: 24.50 39.69 36.24
Russia na na na: 50.00 47.50 33.00: 90.00 92.00 75.16
Ukraine na na na: 12.00 17.12 18.84: 22.50 21.50 33.01
Sorghum 26.0 24.0 47.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 69.0 58.0 42.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 39.0 35.0 33.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 40.9 30.3 39.7: 52.68 53.93 56.90:517.80 513.36 514.35

• 09 Nov 2023 11:50:26 AM – FARMERS ENROLLED 93.260 MLN ACRES CORN (VS 93.248 MLN ACRES REPORTED LAST MONTH), IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2023 AS OF NOV. 1 – USDA
• 09 Nov 2023 11:50:26 AM – FARMERS ENROLLED 82.764 MLN ACRES SOYBEANS (VS 82.755 MLN ACRES REPORTED LAST MONTH), IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2023 AS OF NOV. 1 – USDA
• 09 Nov 2023 11:50:26 AM – FARMERS ENROLLED 53.280 MLN ACRES WHEAT (VS 53.276 MLN ACRES REPORTED LAST MONTH), IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2023 AS OF NOV. 1 – USDA
• 09 Nov 2023 11:50:27 AM – U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 1.436 MLN ACRES CORN (VS 1.435 MLN ACRES REPORTED LAST MONTH) FOR 2023 AS OF NOV. 1 – USDA
• 09 Nov 2023 11:50:27 AM – U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 0.475 MLN ACRES SOYBEANS (VS 0.473 MLN ACRES REPORTED LAST MONTH) FOR 2023 AS OF NOV. 1 – USDA
• 09 Nov 2023 11:50:27 AM – U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 0.643 MLN ACRES WHEAT (VS 0.643 MLN ACRES REPORTED LAST MONTH) FOR 2023 AS OF NOV. 1 – USDA
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday in response to the USDA estimates that showed higher than expected ending stocks estimates or the US and the world. USDA increased imports by 10 million bushels and cut back slightly on domestic demand while leaving export demand unchanged. US ending stocks were estimated at 684 million bushels, from 670 million last month. USDA increased world Wheat production and also demand for ending stocks estimates of 258.7 million tons, from 258.1 million last month Ukraine is still exporting through the Black Sea. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that it is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia, with production losses now expected. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to averages. Argentine conditions are reported to be good after a very dry start but showers and rains in recent weeks. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 571, 564, and 555 December, with resistance at 599, 604, and 636 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 630, 624, and 612 December, with resistance at 661, 668, and 688 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 721, 703, and 696 December, and resistance is at 740, 746, and 752 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday on the USDA reports. Production was cut back and demand was left unchanged for an ending stocks estimate of 40.9 million cwt, from 41.8 million last month. The production losses were spread between long and medium/short grains. Ending stocks levels for long grain are now 22.2 million cwt and are 15.4 million cwt for medium/short grain. Near term cash market strength is going against some chart resistance just above the market after a sharp three day rally. Some selling could develop today.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1637, 1615, and 1600 January and resistance is at 1675, 1690, and 1702 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday and made new contract lows at one point in response to the USDA reports. USDA increased yields and production much more than expected and US production is now estimated at 15.234 billion bushels, from 15.064 billion last month. Demand was increased slightly for just about all categories but ending stocks were higher at 2.156 billion bushels, from 2.111 billion last month. World ending stocks were increased to 315 million tons, from 312.4 million last month. The weekly export sales report was strong last w2eek. Oats closed lower. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is much too wet. The weather patterns seem stuck in South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 465, 458, and 452 December, and resistance is at 478, 486, and 507 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 296 December. Support is at 328, 322, and 316 December, and resistance is at 351, 363, and 371 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower yesterday, and Soybean Meal was lower and Soybean Oil was higher. The weekly export sales report was strong and strong sales have been reported to China and unknown destinations on the daily reporting system. But, USDA issued bearish reports. USDA estimated yields and production a little higher at 4.129 billion bushels, from 3.104 billion last month. The trade had expected a slight decline in production. Ending stocks were 245 million bushels, from 220 million last month. World stocks were estimated at 114.5 million tons, from 115.6 million last month. Futures have rallied a lot lately and were due a correction. The selling could continue today. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. These weather trends are expected to continue.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1334 and 1297 January. Support is at 1326, 1331, and 1319 January, and resistance is at 1361, 1382, and 1388 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 429.00, 423.00, and 422.00 December, and resistance is at 458.00, 464.00, and 470.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5060, 4980, and 4670 December, with resistance at 5210, 5300, and 5350 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on news of striong export demand. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Canola closed lower with the price action in Chicago. Trends are down on the weekly charts but mixed on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 681.00, 673.00, and 660.00 January, with resistance at 696.00, 704.00, and 711.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3730, 3710, and 3650 January, with resistance at 3810, 3820, and 3880 January.

DJ Malaysia’s October Palm Oil Exports 1.47M Tons; Up 21%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 21% on month at 1.47 million metric tons in October, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the October crop data and revised numbers for September, issued by MPOB:
October September Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,937,224 1,829,434 Up 5.89%
Palm Oil Exports 1,466,065 1,211,251 Up 21.04%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 90,793 84,741 Up 7.14%
Palm Oil Imports 47,557 49,054 Dn 3.05%
Closing Stocks 2,448,852 2,313,741 Up 5.84%
Crude Palm Oil 1,396,485 1,371,016 Up 1.86%
Processed Palm Oil 1,052,367 942,725 Up 11.63%

DJ Malaysia Palm-Oil Exports Rose 1.92% on Month in Nov. 1-10, AmSpec Says
By Ronnie Harui
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the Nov. 1-10 period are estimated up 1.92% on month at 403,505 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Nov. 1-10 Oct. 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 126,865 128,310
RBD Palm Oil 17,830 22,715
RBD Palm Stearin 38,113 23,030
Crude Palm Oil 106,237 147,885
Total* 403,505 395,890
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 74 Dec 165 Dec
116 Dec
84 Nov

Secember
74 Dec 165 Dec
122 Dec 84 Jan

January
63 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 84 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 822.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 827.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 845.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 852.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 830.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 835.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 852.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 860.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 795.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 765.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,700.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 238.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.706)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 124,000 lots, or 6.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 – – – 4,950 4,963 4,950 -13 0 13
Jan-24 4,982 4,983 4,918 4,921 4,964 4,942 -22 104,238 159,715
Mar-24 4,897 4,911 4,867 4,868 4,894 4,884 -10 15,529 26,921
May-24 4,945 4,945 4,904 4,905 4,934 4,918 -16 3,578 11,404
Jul-24 4,918 4,918 4,876 4,876 4,908 4,889 -19 225 5,162
Sep-24 4,900 4,900 4,852 4,852 4,879 4,859 -20 430 3,007
Corn
Turnover: 759,207 lots, or 19.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 2,569 2,569 2,537 2,537 2,580 2,567 -13 33 9,174
Jan-24 2,544 2,548 2,516 2,520 2,549 2,527 -22 478,513 740,361
Mar-24 2,542 2,543 2,521 2,521 2,544 2,530 -14 166,001 282,848
May-24 2,577 2,577 2,552 2,556 2,578 2,562 -16 49,273 239,568
Jul-24 2,569 2,571 2,552 2,559 2,573 2,561 -12 60,679 133,778
Sep-24 2,570 2,570 2,553 2,559 2,571 2,561 -10 4,708 19,644
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,958,134 lots, or 76.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 – – – 4,340 4,340 4,340 0 0 8,671
Dec-23 4,145 4,148 4,048 4,050 4,177 4,091 -86 29,592 28,283
Jan-24 4,115 4,126 4,027 4,028 4,130 4,070 -60 1,355,205 1,340,955
Mar-24 3,921 3,925 3,837 3,841 3,936 3,870 -66 58,830 83,067
May-24 3,572 3,572 3,495 3,495 3,573 3,526 -47 370,605 888,019
Jul-24 3,559 3,559 3,477 3,477 3,559 3,515 -44 51,210 485,044
Aug-24 3,601 3,607 3,540 3,541 3,610 3,573 -37 30,960 74,354
Sep-24 3,571 3,574 3,512 3,512 3,576 3,537 -39 61,732 192,333
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,117,412 lots, or 82.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 – – – 7,270 7,270 7,270 0 0 6
Dec-23 7,204 7,374 7,190 7,308 7,226 7,268 42 7,671 11,679
Jan-24 7,284 7,476 7,268 7,398 7,306 7,356 50 942,243 430,775
Feb-24 7,364 7,546 7,354 7,484 7,384 7,434 50 16,269 33,122
Mar-24 7,390 7,576 7,390 7,520 7,428 7,472 44 8,176 24,629
Apr-24 7,416 7,580 7,412 7,532 7,426 7,484 58 6,905 14,274
May-24 7,400 7,560 7,382 7,514 7,418 7,470 52 129,337 152,704
Jun-24 7,368 7,522 7,364 7,486 7,380 7,452 72 4,166 5,681
Jul-24 7,332 7,448 7,318 7,418 7,340 7,382 42 153 1,175
Aug-24 7,270 7,362 7,260 7,358 7,268 7,318 50 63 2,330
Sep-24 7,208 7,304 7,186 7,288 7,208 7,250 42 2,321 4,697
Oct-24 7,192 7,248 7,178 7,230 7,186 7,208 22 108 115
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,220,290 lots, or 99.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 – – – 8,358 8,358 8,358 0 0 3,370
Dec-23 8,282 8,288 8,192 8,242 8,282 8,256 -26 4,718 14,378
Jan-24 8,210 8,242 8,132 8,232 8,208 8,198 -10 1,015,404 563,334
Mar-24 8,034 8,076 7,970 8,072 8,026 8,034 8 12,923 38,869
May-24 7,788 7,862 7,728 7,850 7,778 7,798 20 162,190 240,024
Jul-24 7,688 7,768 7,650 7,762 7,698 7,710 12 14,116 133,224
Aug-24 7,676 7,740 7,638 7,730 7,666 7,692 26 4,517 32,095
Sep-24 7,594 7,668 7,558 7,660 7,590 7,612 22 6,422 11,162
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322