Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Barr Speech at 7:00 A.M., Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Unemployment Rate at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Final, and S&P Global Services PMI Final at 8:45 A.M., ISM Services PMI, ISM Services Employment, ISM Services Business Activity, ISM Services New Orders, and ISM Services prices at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.m., Dairy Products at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Barr Speech at 2:30 P.M.
On the Corn Front Brazilian climate is a concern into December. The forecasting models are in agreement that near normal rainfall benefits Argentina into mid-month. However, the models also agree that a lengthy period of dryness and heat returns to Central and Northern Brazil in the 8 to 15 day period, while additional unwanted rainfall hammers RGDS and Parana in Southern Brazil. This is a stuck pattern a change is needed no later than mid-month to prevent crop stress and meaningful delays in Brazil’s soybean harvest this winter. Technical selling pressure continues in corn, but traders will be taking more note of South American crop risk. Brazil exported 5.553 MMT’s of soybeans vs. 3.81 MMT’s last year, and 8.45 MMT’s of corn vs. 6.78 MMT’s in 2022. Based on vessel counts, Brazil will continue to export sizable tonnages of corn and soybeans during November. However, US Gulf corn is now 15 to 20 cents cheaper than Brazil for Nov/Dec with no offers thereafter. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 470 ½ which is a ¼ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 470 ¾ to 468.
On the Ethanol Front Pro Farmers Editors reports corn-for-ethanol use totaled 430.1 million bushels in September, according to the USDA down 11.6 million bu. (2.6%) from August but up 46.9 million bu. (12.2%) from last year. Even with declines it beat the street of traders expectations that were pinpointed at 411.8 million bushels production of dried distillers grains with solubles totaled 1.700 million short tons, down from 1.783 million tons in August but up from 1.613 million tons in September 2022. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
Have A Great Trading Day!