Grains Report 11/03/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November Nov 06, 2023 175 Nov 02, 2023

DJ Food Prices Fall Slightly in October, Despite Tightening Supply for Sugar, says UN
By Yusuf Khan
Food prices fell slightly in October, led by falls in prices for grains, vegetable oils and meats, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
The UN FAO’s food price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods, averaged prices at 120.6 points in October, 0.7 points or 0.5% lower than last month. Prices now stand about 11% lower than where they were a year ago, with the trend of falling food prices continuing, the FAO said Friday.
In particular, the FAO said that cereal prices fell 1% from September, putting prices 18% lower than a year ago. Higher exports of wheat from the U.S. helped to lower prices, as did lower demand for rice, the Rome-based body said.
Sugar prices meanwhile fell 2.2% from last month, having risen sharply since August on supply concerns from Asia, amid the El-Nino weather pattern wreaking havoc on production. However, prices are still 47% higher than where they were a year ago, and the FAO said that despite strong production in Brazil, a weak Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar weighed on world sugar quotations. It added that shipment delays from Brazil combined with a tighter global supply outlook is keeping prices well supported.
Meanwhile, prices for vegetable oils were also slightly lower than last month, down 0.7%, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and putting prices 21% lower than a year ago. The FAO said this was led by lower quotations for palm oil.
Prices for meat were also 0.6% lower than September, marking the fourth month of consecutive decline. However meat prices are only 3.4% lower than a year ago. The FAO said lower pork prices led the decline, despite higher prices for poultry, beef and sheep.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher again yeysterda. Trends are mixed in all three markets. Ukraine is still exporting through the Black Sea. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that it is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to averages. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 552, 546, and 537 December, with resistance at 571, 583, and 594 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 624, 612, and 606 December, with resistance at 574, 583, and 584 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 696, 693, and 686 December, and resistance is at 730, 746, and 752 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday. Near term cash market strength is going against bearish attitudes seen in later months. The harvest is almost over and less Rice is on offer from producers. The export sales report last week was solid but not spectacular. The USDA reports showed little to get excited about either up or down in price. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas as the harvest moves forward. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1578 January. Support is at 1573, 1560, and 1553 January and resistance is at 1592, 1600, and 1620 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday and trends remain down on the daily charts on clear weather in the US to promote active harvest progress. The dry weather in the central Midwest of the US is expected to return after some snow showers yesterday. It has turned very cold and the growing season is over for almost everyone in the Midwest. Trends are mixed in the market now on the daily charts. Oats closed lower. The US Corn harvest is continuing with good weather and yield reports showing good and bad results with no real trend evident. Farmers report no real sales of Corn as they wait for higher prices. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. Demand is increasing now. It is already hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is too wet. Conditions are expected to continue to improve over the next couple of weeks as a few showers are expected for Argentina and central and northern Brazil. These will not be enough to save crops but could buy the crops a little time until better rains arrive, hopefully in the near future.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 467, 456, and 443 December. Support is at 465, 458, and 452 December, and resistance is at 478, 484, and 495 December. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 370, 369, and 367 December, and resistance is at 389, 396, and 406 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher again yesterday, but Soybean Oil was lower again. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Some showers are in the forecast for northern Bazil. Argentina is also dry but has started to get some showers and rains. Yield results for the US new crop show that production and yields are above and below APH data with no real trend showing just yet. The data has been called disappointing to traders as production appears to be less than expected so far this crop year. Showers and rains are in the forecast for the rest of the week so harvest progress will be slower. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone, and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries and reports indicate that the availability of Brazil Soybeans might be ramping down. The US sales to China have ramped up in the last month but have been quiet for the last week or so.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 131.150 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1319, 1298, and 1292 January, and resistance is at 1311, 1339, and 1343 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 422.00, 420.00, and 417.00 December, and resistance is at 439.00, 448.00, and 452.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4980, 4900, and 4470 December, with resistance at 5080, 5210, and 5300 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on news of reduced Indian imports. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Canola closed higher yesterday. Trends are down on the weekly charts but mixed on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 672.00, 666.00, and 660.00 January, with resistance at 690.00, 704.00, and 711.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3730, 3650, and 3610 January, with resistance at 3810, 3820, and 3880 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry today but some snow tomorrow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 85 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec
75 Nov

Secember
70 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec 75 Jan

January
71 Mar 145 Mar 90 Mae 74 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 802.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 812.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 832.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 832.50 -05.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 810.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 820.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 840.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 840.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 777.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 752.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,670.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 232.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.725)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 114,233 lots, or 5.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,922 4,945 4,922 4,922 4,882 4,929 47 229 1,874
Jan-24 4,892 4,930 4,889 4,922 4,859 4,912 53 92,669 180,129
Mar-24 4,837 4,857 4,829 4,847 4,809 4,844 35 17,217 27,040
May-24 4,860 4,902 4,860 4,892 4,858 4,891 33 3,436 11,325
Jul-24 4,853 4,873 4,853 4,867 4,833 4,863 30 265 5,141
Sep-24 4,835 4,846 4,829 4,842 4,813 4,838 25 417 2,928
Corn
Turnover: 520,457 lots, or 13.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 2,530 2,556 2,525 2,550 2,528 2,550 22 1,191 10,197
Jan-24 2,548 2,555 2,535 2,553 2,544 2,547 3 329,959 760,435
Mar-24 2,558 2,562 2,544 2,559 2,551 2,555 4 88,715 261,225
May-24 2,581 2,588 2,572 2,585 2,579 2,581 2 42,945 217,809
Jul-24 2,583 2,590 2,575 2,583 2,582 2,582 0 48,223 122,385
Sep-24 2,580 2,585 2,570 2,581 2,576 2,575 -1 9,424 15,764
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,363,976 lots, or 52.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,132 4,191 4,119 4,119 4,132 4,185 53 1,151 13,537
Dec-23 4,065 4,119 4,057 4,110 4,054 4,089 35 31,387 38,417
Jan-24 3,998 4,050 3,986 4,039 3,983 4,016 33 980,092 1,416,407
Mar-24 3,818 3,852 3,804 3,850 3,797 3,829 32 21,524 77,137
May-24 3,446 3,481 3,443 3,479 3,442 3,463 21 220,301 806,165
Jul-24 3,451 3,470 3,435 3,468 3,431 3,452 21 53,092 483,834
Aug-24 3,484 3,533 3,484 3,533 3,494 3,517 23 21,544 68,566
Sep-24 3,481 3,510 3,476 3,508 3,473 3,492 19 34,885 173,876
Palm Oil
Turnover: 657,173 lots, or 48.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 – – – 7,246 7,246 7,246 0 0 88
Dec-23 7,266 7,338 7,258 7,302 7,162 7,294 132 11,726 18,297
Jan-24 7,328 7,378 7,296 7,350 7,212 7,332 120 565,971 429,291
Feb-24 7,370 7,416 7,336 7,394 7,256 7,376 120 10,404 30,098
Mar-24 7,378 7,430 7,348 7,412 7,274 7,390 116 5,173 20,792
Apr-24 7,354 7,420 7,332 7,404 7,268 7,382 114 3,729 10,848
May-24 7,370 7,412 7,318 7,394 7,264 7,366 102 56,656 112,558
Jun-24 7,316 7,376 7,284 7,360 7,238 7,334 96 1,976 3,135
Jul-24 7,262 7,332 7,236 7,292 7,214 7,284 70 376 1,117
Aug-24 7,138 7,254 7,138 7,230 7,138 7,212 74 60 1,764
Sep-24 7,132 7,188 7,116 7,180 7,082 7,154 72 1,064 3,533
Oct-24 7,118 7,152 7,104 7,152 7,072 7,128 56 38 82
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 822,122 lots, or 66.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 8,248 8,248 8,248 8,248 8,172 8,248 76 130 5,090
Dec-23 8,240 8,308 8,218 8,286 8,152 8,268 116 9,160 24,048
Jan-24 8,120 8,198 8,104 8,178 8,048 8,156 108 720,059 569,390
Mar-24 7,998 8,010 7,920 7,984 7,884 7,976 92 4,644 37,147
May-24 7,650 7,730 7,626 7,722 7,596 7,686 90 73,492 205,273
Jul-24 7,542 7,646 7,542 7,638 7,520 7,610 90 9,147 127,605
Aug-24 7,556 7,634 7,540 7,618 7,512 7,600 88 2,889 29,759
Sep-24 7,498 7,562 7,476 7,552 7,444 7,524 80 2,601 8,454
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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