Grains Report 10/31/2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Oct 30
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Oct 30, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 26, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————–
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/26/2023 10/19/2023 10/27/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 643 1,561
CORN 531,516 449,261 445,693 4,945,072 4,216,155
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 100
MIXED 0 0 0 24 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,794 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 65,568 3,484 72,154 450,424 213,269
SOYBEANS 1,890,227 2,625,693 2,586,228 9,949,392 10,226,606
SUNFLOWER 96 0 384 2,517 2,064
WHEAT 189,842 169,480 137,082 7,113,889 9,647,120
Total 2,677,249 3,247,918 3,241,541 22,465,755 24,313,361
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

0
Date 29-Oct 22-Oct 2022 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 93 90 95 95
Cotton Harvested 49 41 54 47
Corn Harvested 71 59 74 68
Soybeans Harvested 85 76 87 78
Sorghum Harvested 77 67 76 71
Peanuts Harvested 69 55 77 70
Sugarbeets Harvested 84 72 88 81
sunflowers Harvested 50 27 56 44
Rice Harvested 95 91 97 96
Winter Wheat Planted 84 77 86 85
Winter Wheat Emerged 64 53 60 64

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 23 19 29 24 5
Cotton Last Week 24 19 28 24 5
Cotton Last Year 21 24 25 26 4

Winter Wheat This Wee 7 11 35 39 8
Winter Wheat Last Week
Winter Wheat Last Year 17 18 37 22 5

Pasture and Range This Week 16 21 30 29 4
Pasture and Range Last Week 18 22 29 27 4
Pasture and Range Last Year 22 26 29 19 4

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 31
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November Nov 01, 2023 438 Sep 13, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed mixed yesterday in range trading as Kansas City closed a little higher and the other markets were lower. Trends are sideways in all three markets. Ukraine is still exporting through the Black Sea. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market and is reporting that it is larger than originally thought. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to averages. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead of milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 561, 552, and 546 December, with resistance at 583, 594, and 604 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 633, 624, and 612 December, with resistance at 668, 688, and 693 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 711, 708, and 705 December, and resistance is at 752, 777, and 791 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday as weakness hit most agricultural markets. The harvest is almost over and less Rice is on offer from producers. The export sales report last week was solid but not spectacular. The USDA reports showed little to get excited about either up or down in price. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas as the harvest moves forward. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1590 and 1578 January. Support is at 1600, 1594, and 1592 January and resistance is at 1620, 1637, and 1653 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to reports of and forecasts for an improvement in the South American weather and on clear weather in the US to promote active harvest progress. The dry weather in the central Midwest of the US is expected to return after some snow showers tomorrow. It has turned very cold and the growing season is over for almost everyone in the Midwest. Trends are mixed in the market now on the daily charts. Oats closed higher. The US Corn harvest is continuing with good weather and yield reports showing good and bad results with no real trend evident. Farmers report no real sales of Corn as they wait for higher prices. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. Demand is increasing now. The Brazil Corn harvest is over and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business. That could change in the coming year is the growing conditions deteriorate in Brazil as is possible in an El Nino year. It is already hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some beneficial rains have been reported in Argentina and a few showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil is too wet. Conditions are expected to continue to improve over the next couple of weeks as a few showers are expected for Argentina and central and northern Brazil. These will not be enough to save crops but could buy the crops a little time until better rains arrive, hopefully in the near future.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 478, 474, and 465 December, and resistance is at 495, 507, and 509 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 429 December. Support is at 388, 378, and 369 December, and resistance is at 410, 417, and 420 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday but Soybean Oil was higher. The trade remains concerned about the improving weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Some showers are in the forecast for northern Bazil. Argentina is also dry but has started to get some showers and rains. Yield results for the US new crop show that production and yields are above and below APH data with no real trend showing just yet. The data has been called disappointing to traders as production appears to be less than expected so far this crop year. Showers an rains are in the forecast for the rest of the week so harvest progress will be slower. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries and reports indicate that the availability of Brazil Soybeans might be ramping down. The US sales to China have ramped up in the last month.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 239,492 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1298, 1292, and 1270 January, and resistance is at 1331, 1339, and 1343 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 433.00, 422.00, and 420.00 December, and resistance is at 449.00, 452.00, and 455.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5120, 4990, and 4900 December, with resistance at 5300, 5350, and 5430 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on ideas of weaker demand. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Canola closed lower yesterday and was led lower by liquidation in the November contract before First Notice Day tomorrow. Trends are down on the weekly charts but mixed on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 665.00, 660.00, and 654.00 January, with resistance at 698.00, 700.00, and 707.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3710, 3690, and 3650 January, with resistance at 3820, 3880, and 3910 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry today but some snow tomorrow. Temperatures should average below normal.

\

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 85 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec
75 Nov

November
85 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec 75 Nov

December
70 Dec
140 Dec 120 Dec 75 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 792.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 802.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 812.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 820.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 800.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 810.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 820.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 827.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 757.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 740.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,610.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 229.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.757)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 113,660 lots, or 5.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,904 4,907 4,844 4,856 4,921 4,872 -49 3,868 7,327
Jan-24 4,888 4,897 4,852 4,856 4,910 4,869 -41 89,278 190,154
Mar-24 4,836 4,837 4,808 4,814 4,847 4,819 -28 17,260 26,237
May-24 4,877 4,882 4,852 4,857 4,888 4,863 -25 2,650 10,987
Jul-24 4,848 4,850 4,828 4,831 4,862 4,835 -27 391 4,882
Sep-24 4,828 4,829 4,807 4,807 4,840 4,815 -25 213 2,385
Corn
Turnover: 582,718 lots, or 14.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 2,518 2,526 2,508 2,519 2,526 2,517 -9 26,105 20,695
Jan-24 2,536 2,546 2,524 2,539 2,528 2,534 6 366,125 797,818
Mar-24 2,543 2,553 2,534 2,545 2,536 2,543 7 91,175 237,532
May-24 2,571 2,576 2,563 2,571 2,565 2,569 4 36,649 217,129
Jul-24 2,578 2,582 2,569 2,575 2,573 2,575 2 58,231 116,212
Sep-24 2,580 2,583 2,570 2,575 2,578 2,575 -3 4,433 12,821
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,572,121 lots, or 60.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,112 4,125 3,980 4,001 4,123 4,064 -59 36,029 16,948
Dec-23 4,050 4,055 3,985 3,995 4,046 4,019 -27 31,009 61,640
Jan-24 3,977 3,977 3,912 3,916 3,980 3,940 -40 1,146,756 1,355,984
Mar-24 3,802 3,802 3,751 3,757 3,794 3,774 -20 24,947 77,913
May-24 3,451 3,452 3,403 3,410 3,451 3,422 -29 223,480 787,986
Jul-24 3,439 3,439 3,396 3,403 3,437 3,415 -22 62,417 473,302
Aug-24 3,505 3,505 3,469 3,473 3,503 3,478 -25 10,667 65,421
Sep-24 3,475 3,478 3,441 3,446 3,476 3,455 -21 36,816 173,099
Palm Oil
Turnover: 777,331 lots, or 55.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 7,210 7,210 6,994 7,112 7,210 7,058 -152 1,135 89
Dec-23 7,220 7,222 7,032 7,070 7,242 7,102 -140 16,010 28,339
Jan-24 7,240 7,250 7,052 7,098 7,276 7,138 -138 671,565 450,890
Feb-24 7,274 7,274 7,090 7,136 7,290 7,172 -118 11,674 25,165
Mar-24 7,288 7,304 7,116 7,162 7,322 7,184 -138 10,576 19,454
Apr-24 7,290 7,304 7,116 7,160 7,318 7,192 -126 4,223 8,942
May-24 7,302 7,302 7,112 7,158 7,310 7,194 -116 59,869 106,993
Jun-24 7,268 7,278 7,100 7,138 7,290 7,192 -98 209 743
Jul-24 7,220 7,228 7,064 7,108 7,232 7,146 -86 109 1,278
Aug-24 7,170 7,182 7,030 7,068 7,172 7,096 -76 57 1,692
Sep-24 7,110 7,128 6,978 7,020 7,118 7,038 -80 1,851 3,235
Oct-24 7,082 7,098 6,966 7,006 7,110 7,020 -90 53 70
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 745,274 lots, or 58.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 8,152 8,180 8,058 8,058 8,152 8,138 -14 2,934 5,623
Dec-23 8,102 8,102 7,942 8,010 8,106 8,016 -90 9,259 37,544
Jan-24 8,014 8,036 7,878 7,926 8,018 7,948 -70 635,102 509,584
Mar-24 7,836 7,852 7,720 7,780 7,844 7,764 -80 5,230 32,685
May-24 7,632 7,638 7,478 7,524 7,628 7,550 -78 79,134 194,090
Jul-24 7,566 7,576 7,428 7,472 7,566 7,500 -66 8,425 122,047
Aug-24 7,536 7,560 7,424 7,462 7,546 7,490 -56 2,078 28,079
Sep-24 7,466 7,490 7,356 7,396 7,472 7,420 -52 3,112 7,921
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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