William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
For the past 10 weeks, Dec Corn has found an ideal equilibrium where headwinds & tailwinds have offset one another – keeping the mkt in a tight range (470-505)! Bullish factors have included harvest more than half-way over, the producer storing – not selling, strong domestic demand & delayed planting in South America! Bearish factors have been better rains in S/A, a strong dollar, geopolitical issues in the Ukraine & Israel/Gaza & slack exports! Going forward we see exports improving with our prices now competitive globally & South American having just an average crop – not a record – due to early dryness! Both of which should ignite a rally from current harvest lows!
Last week, Dec Meal posted its largest weekly gain since 2006 – energized by large export sales & slow planting progress in South American – 38% (avg-52)! This coupled with 3-4 million less acres planted – should give the Bean Complex much upside momentum once harvest is complete (85% done)!
Dec Wht has had some disappointing market action in the past week – being unable to rally off the geopolitical events in Ukraine & Israel/Gaza! While Chicago Dec Wht has stayed in its tight range, KC Dec Wht has made new contract lows! Australia remains very dry while Argentina has received some rains. First Winter Wheat Crop conditions are out today! The Wht Complex may need help from post harvest rally in corn & beans!
Dec Cat has staged a remarkable comeback rally after a bearish shocker from the USDA a week ago last Friday – recovering nearly all the $6.50 it gave up! The cash has rallied as well & exports were strong last week! Supplies are still very tight & the report may have been a one-off bearish event – as the mkt seems primed now to retest its highs as we enter the high holiday demand period of Thanksgiving thru Christmas!
The $7.00 rally in Dec Hogs emanated from an extremely over-sold position & an extreme discount to cash ($12 – avg – $7) but both those conditions have been alleviated & any further rally is jeopardized by the expectation of a 705MP 4th Qtr production increase as well as rising avg weights! Upcoming holiday demand might be the impetus needed for an extension of the current rally!Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337