About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher yesterday and trends are sideways in all three markets. The war in Ukraine continues with Russia still bombing Ukrainian ports near the Black Sea and Danube River and has been having success. Ukraine moved yesterday to end shipping of grain from the Black Sea in response. Russia is still exporting and offering Wheat into the world market. Ukraine and the EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are expected to increase for the rest of the marketing year. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Australia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries. There are reports of some showers in both countries to raise production estimates slightly but not enough to bring production close to averages. It has been too wet in southern Brazil and much of the Wheat grown there is expected to be feed grade instead o milling grade.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 561, 552, and 546 December, with resistance at 583, 594, and 604 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 633, 624, and 612 December, with resistance at 668, 688, and 693 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 711, 708, and 705 December, and resistance is at 752, 777, and 791 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and was led higher by November on what appeared to be commercial buying. The harvest is almost over and less Rice is on offer from producers. The USDA reports showed little to get excited about either up or down in price. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas as the harvest moves forward. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat seen during the growing season. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of bad weather in some production areas. They have imposed export taxes o 20% on sales to keep the Rice in the country.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1630 and 1710 November. Support is at 1600, 1590, and 1576 November and resistance is at 1629, 1637, and 1640 November.

\CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to forecasts for an improvement in the South American weather and on clear weather in the US to promote active harvest progress. The dry weather in the central Midwest of the US is expected to change with frequent rains through the end of the week. Trends are mixed in the market now. Oats closed higher. The US Corn harvest is continuing with good weather and yield reports showing good and bad results with no real trend evident. Farmers report no real sales of Corn as they wait for higher prices. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. Demand is increasing now. The Brazil Corn harvest is over and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business. That could change in the coming year is the growing conditions deteriorate in Brazil as is possible in an El Nino year. It is already hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina. Southern Brazil is too wet. Conditions are expected to improve over the next couple of weeks as a few showers are expected for Argentina and central and northern Brazil. These will not be enough to save crops but could buy the crops a little time until better rains arrive, hopefully in the near future.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 478, 474, and 465 December, and resistance is at 495, 507, and 509 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 378, 369, and 367 December, and resistance is at 400, 410, and 417 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower yesterday, but Soybean Meal was higher. The weekly export sales report showed the highest sales for the marketing year, but the trade was more concerned about the improving weather forecasts for South America. Brazil remains mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Some showers are in the forecast for northern Bazil. Argentina is also dry. Yield results for the US new crop show that production and yields are above and below APH data with no real trend showing just yet. The data has been called disappointing to traders as production appears to be less than expected so far this crop year. Showers an rains are in the forecast for the rest of the week so harvest progress will be slower. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries and reports indicate that the availability of Brazil Soybeans might be ramping down. The US sales to China have ramped up in the last month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1270, 1251, and 1244 November, and resistance is at 1301, 1318, and 1332 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 420.00, 417.00, and 415.00 December, and resistance is at 425.00, 428.00, and 431.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4990, 4900, and 4770 December, with resistance at 5350, 5430, and 5510 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today speculative buying and stronger demand indications from India and China. Some say the market still needs to see less production coming. Traders still think that El Nino will cause big production problems down the road and are holding out hopes for rallies in the future, but supplies appear to be very strong for now. Canola closed lower again yesterday along with the price action in Chicago and trends are down in this market. Most were paying attention to improving weather forecasts for South America. Harvest has been active and speculators were selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 666.00, 660.00, and 654.00 November, with resistance at 691.00, 701.00, and 710.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3690, 3650, and 3610 January, with resistance at 3780, 3810, and 3880 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry, but a few showers near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 87 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec
87 Nov

November
87 Dec 140 Dec
115 Dec 87 Nov

December
82 Dec
140 Dec 115 Dec 73 Jan

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 805.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 815.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 830.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 835.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 812.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 822.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 837.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 842.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 770.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 745.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,690.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 230.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7745)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 132,033 lots, or 6.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,934 4,951 4,906 4,937 4,898 4,927 29 6,807 10,960
Jan-24 4,914 4,932 4,893 4,927 4,874 4,913 39 99,494 175,544
Mar-24 4,848 4,865 4,825 4,850 4,823 4,845 22 23,291 25,658
May-24 4,887 4,902 4,870 4,892 4,866 4,885 19 2,065 9,761
Jul-24 4,863 4,872 4,846 4,862 4,834 4,860 26 241 4,335
Sep-24 4,843 4,846 4,823 4,840 4,812 4,835 23 135 2,088
Corn
Turnover: 637,373 lots, or 1.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 2,518 2,534 2,512 2,529 2,522 2,520 -2 25,393 43,883
Jan-24 2,500 2,520 2,492 2,515 2,498 2,506 8 414,606 820,807
Mar-24 2,506 2,527 2,499 2,521 2,505 2,512 7 95,429 242,139
May-24 2,545 2,558 2,536 2,552 2,543 2,547 4 30,986 220,527
Jul-24 2,553 2,567 2,546 2,559 2,553 2,555 2 66,157 119,669
Sep-24 2,566 2,573 2,555 2,568 2,563 2,563 0 4,802 11,506
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,324,381 lots, or 50.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,056 4,089 4,050 4,080 4,033 4,072 39 13,034 51,618
Dec-23 3,990 4,015 3,980 4,005 3,962 3,999 37 24,479 64,496
Jan-24 3,910 3,938 3,905 3,929 3,890 3,923 33 995,740 1,396,980
Mar-24 3,708 3,737 3,707 3,732 3,701 3,724 23 16,962 69,172
May-24 3,410 3,428 3,400 3,411 3,406 3,413 7 192,573 758,396
Jul-24 3,405 3,417 3,392 3,402 3,397 3,403 6 51,366 470,381
Aug-24 3,467 3,482 3,461 3,472 3,465 3,472 7 5,161 64,486
Sep-24 3,455 3,455 3,432 3,444 3,438 3,443 5 25,066 158,971
Palm Oil
Turnover: 789,769 lots, or 57.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 7,198 7,226 7,096 7,206 7,052 7,172 120 815 2,262
Dec-23 7,198 7,244 7,130 7,234 7,130 7,184 54 14,918 30,664
Jan-24 7,248 7,270 7,146 7,260 7,128 7,214 86 695,042 445,410
Feb-24 7,276 7,288 7,170 7,284 7,148 7,236 88 9,709 25,014
Mar-24 7,288 7,314 7,200 7,314 7,192 7,262 70 8,724 19,571
Apr-24 7,272 7,308 7,198 7,306 7,176 7,260 84 3,011 9,077
May-24 7,260 7,296 7,184 7,290 7,164 7,246 82 56,221 107,337
Jun-24 7,228 7,260 7,158 7,254 7,124 7,208 84 82 803
Jul-24 7,188 7,212 7,112 7,202 7,084 7,170 86 86 1,337
Aug-24 7,142 7,156 7,066 7,148 7,048 7,088 40 355 1,693
Sep-24 7,102 7,106 7,020 7,106 7,018 7,060 42 788 2,981
Oct-24 7,072 7,084 7,012 7,084 7,004 7,048 44 18 37
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 966,182 lots, or 76.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 8,126 8,146 8,002 8,090 7,976 8,090 114 2,300 9,016
Dec-23 8,006 8,078 7,952 8,056 7,922 8,024 102 8,819 40,504
Jan-24 7,976 8,010 7,866 7,974 7,874 7,938 64 835,788 518,507
Mar-24 7,818 7,842 7,714 7,812 7,728 7,778 50 3,934 30,735
May-24 7,594 7,624 7,500 7,602 7,518 7,562 44 99,802 182,353
Jul-24 7,554 7,556 7,444 7,540 7,466 7,496 30 11,594 120,721
Aug-24 7,498 7,520 7,428 7,514 7,434 7,466 32 1,318 27,466
Sep-24 7,424 7,444 7,356 7,442 7,374 7,398 24 2,627 6,970
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

rt were obtained from sources consider

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322