About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton closed lower again yesterday on follow through selling and tends are down on the daily charts.  The USDA reports showed less production and ending stocks for the current marketing year but did not really move the market that much.  The weekly export sales report showed bad demand.  Ideas are that the US could be headed into a recession and cause demand to be soft.  Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness, but prices are supported by ideas of tight supplies here in the US and around the world.  There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.  There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.  The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 80.47 ct/lb.  ICE daily certified stocks are now 53,400 bales, from 50,240 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 17 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 82.10 and 81.70 December.  Support is at 84.20, 83.40, and 83.70 December, with resistance of 86.50, 86.80 and 88.00 December.

Crop Progress  
Date 15-Oct 8-Oct 2022 Avg  
Cotton Bolls Opening 87 82 88 88  
Cotton Harvested 33 25 30 32  
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 23 20 27 25 5
Cotton Last Week 21 20 27 27 5
Cotton Last Year 17 29 23 26 5

 

FCOJ                                   

General Comments:  FCOJ closed lower yesterday, but the trends on the daily charts are still up.  Futures are now testing all time highs seen in the weekly charts and set several weeks ago.  Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around.  Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again.  Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 415.00 November.  Support is at 373.00, 369.00, and 366.00 November, with resistance at 392.00, 398.00, and 404.00 November.

 

COFFEE

General Comments:  New York closed a little lower and London closed higher yesterday in consolidation trading.  Trends are up on the New York daily charts but are mixed in London.  Light rains are now b3ing reported in central and southern growing areas of Brazil and conditions are called good.  Demand for Robusta and lower quality Arabicas has improved.  The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market, but the offers are starting to improve with the Vietnam harvest progressing and the US Dollar moving higher.  Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high.  These are moderating as the new harvest comes to the market.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.434 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 151.22 ct/lb.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get mostly dry conditions.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 151.00 and 163.00 December.  Support is at 150.00, 146.00, and 144.00 December, and resistance is at 157.00, 160.00 and 164.00 December.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 2320 November.  Support is at 2360, 2330, and 2310 November, with resistance at 2410, 2460, and 2500 November.

 

SUGAR                                                                                                              

General Comments:  New York closed mixed and London closed a little lower yesterday and trends are mixed on the daily charts.  There are still forecasts for and reports of rain in Brazil after a spell of very hot and dry conditions, but the market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas.  The Brail rains is underway now, but showers have been light and scattered.  The Asian dryness is still the main feature.  Many growing areas in India have been dry, and exports have indi84ted that production has suffered.  The government there now says it will have more than enough production for the domestic demand but will limit exports to help control inflation.  There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino.  Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong.  Mexico is hot and dry and there are increasing concerns about production.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2670, 2620, and 2540 March and resistance is at 2740, 2810, and 2790 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 729.00, 740.00, and 753.00 December.  Support is at 719.00, 709.00, and 703.00 December, with resistance at 733.00, 741.00, and 744.00 December.

 

COCOA

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher yesterday and the trends are up again in both markets.  The EU grind data was stronger than expected and was down 0.9% from last year.  Ivory Coast exports are down 10% so far this year.  Arrivals at ports are 8.5% less than last year.  The main crop harvest comes into focus and as farmers in West Africa report good pod development.  The supply and demand situation remains bullish.  Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.

Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.817 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3650 and 3800 December.  Support is at 3500, 3440, and 3370 December, with resistance at 3640, 3700, and 3750 December.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 3250 December.  Support is at 3050, 3000, and 2950 December, with resistance at 3170, 3200, and 3230 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322