William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
The October WASDE last Thursday at 11am came out a tiny bit friendly with yield at 49.6 (est-49.9) & production at 4.104 (4.132) but the mkt reacted with a bullish Explosion upside – finishing nearly 40 cents higher! This extreme reaction validates to us that the harvest lows are in – and why not! Harvest progress is predicted today to be about 60% in – reported today at 3pm! The “old wives’ tale” says lows are normally carved out at the half-way point of harvest! Plus, the Producer is storing not selling! And normally when the October #’s are down, the November #’s follow suit! Going forward, exports & S/A weather will dictate – we’ve had 8 flash sales of late & N Brazil & Argentina are dry!
Much like its sister mkt Nov Bean, Dec Corn had a very robust reaction to a basically Neutral USDA Report on Thur – yield 173.00 (173.8) & production – 15.064 (15.100) – rallying to the top of its 2 month trading range (4.70-5.00)! Exports have been corn’s bugaboo all year – but that’s starting to change! The $1.50 break in Dec Corn this summer has suddenly made the US competitive with S/A export-wise! Already, Mexico has been a major buyer of our corn for the last 3 weeks & we expect China to follow! South America has been very dry as they attempt to plant -possibly implying a lower production! Domestic Ethanol demand has been very strong – enhanced by the crude oil rally off the Israel/Hamas conflict! And the farmer – at current levels – is putting his crop in the bin! We fully expect the Nov & Jan USDA Reports to come in lower than September! The bad news of a healthy 2023 corn crop off the increased acreage has been discounted into today’s prices!
While the Oct 12 USDA Supply & Demand Report was a touch friendly to corn & beans, it was decidedly negative to Wht as US Stocks came in 670 MB (exp-646 & Sept-615)! But the mkt couldn’t make new lows & in fact has rallied almost 40 cents since the report! A classic example of bullish divergence off bad news! Possibly, low prices have finally cured Low prices in the Wht Mkt! Additional support is coming from the worsening violence in the Middle East, a prediction that global export stocks in 2024 will go to a 16 yr low & continued dryness in the wht areas of Australia & Argentina! Finally, the “path of least resistance” finally appears to be up!
BEND DON’T BREAK has been the MO for Dec Cat for the last 4-5 months as the supply-driven mkt relentlessly makes new contract highs at record levels – then retreats 6-7 dollars – then makes new highs once again! The demand has amazingly hung in there – albeit at record levels with a shaky economy & a much cheaper pork alternative! Recently the mkt broke several dollars off poor exports & domestic demand fears emanating from higher-than-expected inflation – but lower production estimates from the 4th Qtr rallied Dec Cat back into the middle of its range! And that’s been the trading pattern – short-term weakness offset by lower production keeps the mkt within striking distance of more contract highs!
The very interesting dichotomy between surging cattle prices & slumping hog prices continues into the last Qtr of 2023 – as higher production, weak pork prices & sluggish exports have driven Dec Hogs down to 6-month lows while Dec Cat hovers just a few dollars off record highs! One explanation is sheer #’s – extremely tight cattle supplies versus much more abundant pork supplies! And another is consumer preference – many apparently feel you just can’t pay too much for a delicious steak!Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337