About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday on ideas of smaller US crops that should be seen in the USDA data that will be released at the end of the week. Weak demand is still a problem and export demand was trimmed in the supply and demand reports. Ideas are around that Chinese economic data implies less US cotton demand for the coming year but demand from other buyers has been good. There is more talk of a contraction that could develop in China and Cotton demand could be hurt if people have less money to spend on clothes. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. However, there are also production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.46 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 30,203 bales, from 29,701 bales yesterday. ICEs said that 2 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 2 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.90, 86.30, and 85.60 December, with resistance of 88.60, 89.00 and 90.80 December.

DJ Ivory Coast’s Cotton Exports Dropped in Jan-July Period
By Emmanuel Tumanjong
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
Cotton exported by Ivory Coast between January and July fell on year, according to data released by the country’s customs department Monday.
Cotton exported by Ivory Coast between January and July was 157,707 tons, a 44% drop compared with exports of the crop in the same period of the season prior. Real figures of the prior season weren’t published.

Crop Progress
Date 24-Sep 17-Sep 2022 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 65 55 65 62
Cotton Harvested 13 9 14 13
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 20 22 20=8 25 5
Cotton Last Week 20 23 28 24 5
Cotton Last Year 15 27 27 27 4

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday in range trading. The market has been dynamic as traders are wary about selling futures due to the hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage crops in Florida again. Futures have stalled out in the last eek as the hurricanes are missing Florida and are instead landing farther north up the coast. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 338.00, 334.00, and 325.00 November, with resistance at 347.00, 350.00, and 353.00 November.

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Sep 25
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 36.872 million pounds, in August, 27.9% below the previous
month, and 3.3% above August 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Monday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Aug 31 Jul 31 Aug 31 Jul 31 warehouse
2023 2023 2022 2022 stocks/Aug
pork bellies 36,872 51,169 35,684 42,842
orange juice 235,472 325,125 396,208 493,826
french fries 958,390 974,329 988,765 976,071
other potatoes 226,535 235,263 225,443 237,906
chicken rstr (whole) 16,206 15,656 15,813 13,035
ham 153,959 137,646 163,992 151,634
total pork 471,091 470,764 542,602 526,496 418,973
total beef 421,627 410,459 513,788 511,845 402,554
total red meat 920,485 909,795 1,088,519 1,066,784 848,227
total chicken 834,891 845,566 832,414 814,432
total turkey 447,122 439,794 438,257 425,848
total poultry 1,284,383 1,287,665 1,272,356 1,242,582 1,197,825
===============================================================================

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Sep 25
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
9/9/2023 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
9/9/2023 9/10/2022 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 71.79 135.60 -47.1%
Retail/Institutional 5.80 6.52 -10.9%
Total 77.60 142.12 -45.4%
Pack
Bulk 0.36 0.54 -33.3%
Retail/Institutional 1.27 0.92 38.0%
Total Pack 1.63 1.46 11.7%
Reprocessed -1.63 -1.46 11.7%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.14 -0.04 257.6%
Imports – Foreign 0.00 0.04 -100.0%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.44 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.03 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 71.11 134.71 -47.2%
Retail/Institutional 7.07 7.44 -4.9%
Total 78.18 142.14 -45.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 2.53 5.38 -53.0%
Exports 0.03 0.23 -88.9%
Total (Bulk) 2.55 5.60 -54.4%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.03 1.17 -11.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.03 1.17 -11.9%
Total Movement 3.58 6.77 -47.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 68.56 129.10 -46.9%
Retail/Institutional 6.05 6.27 -3.6%
Ending Inventory 74.60 135.37 -44.9%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
9-Sep-23 10-Sep-22 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 119.13 226.65 -47.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.60 6.08 8.6%
Total 125.74 232.73 -46.0%
Pack
Bulk 39.67 82.69 -52.0%
Retail/Institutional 52.04 60.04 -13.3%
Total Pack 91.71 142.74 -35.7%
Reprocessed -85.58 -122.43 -30.1%
Pack from Fruit 6.13 20.31 -69.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 4.65 -2.70 72.1%
Imports – Foreign 167.54 181.58 -7.7%
Domestic Receipts 9.17 4.56 101.0%
Receipts of Florida Produ
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.27 1.06 -74.8%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 1.23 4.52 -72.8%
Reprocessed FCTJ 2.71 3.75 -27.6%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 258.80 379.69 -31.8%
Retail/Institutional 58.65 66.12 -11.3%
Total 317.44 445.81 -28.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 187.65 231.13 -18.8%
Domestic 2.59 19.45 -86.7%
Exports 190.24 250.58 -24.1%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 52.60 59.53 -11.6%
Exports 0.00 0.32 -100.0%
Total (Retail/Inst) 52.60 59.85 -12.1%
Total Movement 242.84 310.44 -21.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 68.56 129.10 -46.9%
Retail/Institutional 6.05 6.27 -3.6%
Ending Inventory 74.60 135.37 -44.9%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday with both markets collapsing as roasters left the market and speculators sold due to forecasts for rain in Brazil production areas in the short term after a very hot spell of temperatures. Demand for lower quality Arabicas has improved due to the recent price strength in Robusta and as Roasters left the market. The lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia remains a main feature of the market. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high. The Brazil harvest moving quickly and this fact has pressured prices. Vietnam is not offering much Coffee into the world market as domestic cash prices are very high.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.446 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 151.20 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 2 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,397 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 147.00, 145.00, and 142.00 December, and resistance is at 155.00, 1657.00 and 160.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2430, 2390, and 2350 November, with resistance at 2500, 2550, and 2570 November.

DJ Ivory Coast Robusta Coffee Exports Fell in Jan-July Period
By Emmanuel Tumanjong
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
Ivory Coast’s robusta coffee exports between January and July fell on year, the West African nation’s customs department reported on Monday.
The country exported 20,752 tons of coffee, down 17% compared with exports of the beans in the same prior-year period, the country’s customs said.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed lower yesterday on forecasts for rain in Brazil after a spell of very hot and dry conditions, but the market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. London closed lower but held to the recent trading range. Chart trends are mixed but the trends are turning down with the price action yesterday. The Asian dryness the main feature. Traders are worried about the lack of Sugar exports from India. The Indian monsoon is expected to withdraw early this year and leave Sugarcane high and dry. Many growing areas have been dry, anyway. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential for this year of El Nino. Reports of offers from Brazil are still around but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil reports very good harvest conditions but the weather in Southeast Asia is currently dry. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production. European beet producers are reported to be less interest in planting this year due to environmental regulations imposed by the EU.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2600 and 2490 March. Support is at 2620, 2600, and 2540 March and resistance is at 2700, 2730, and 2790 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 701.00 and 674.00 December. Support is at 706.00, 703,00, and 693.00 December, with resistance at 728.00, 733.00, and 741.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday in consolidation trading and despite more ideas of tight supplies. Futures seem to be high enough in price for now and some speculators are taking money off the table. The charts suggest that a correction has started and it is possible that futures and cash prices have gotten a little too high for the demand side of the market despite production losses seen during the growing season. The supply and demand situation remains bullish. Reports of diseases in West Africa that are hurting production continue. The diseases are from too much rain falling earlier in the growing season. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.001 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 3440 and 3250 December. Support is at 3490, 3440, and 3390 December, with resistance at 3570, 3600, and 3640 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2960, 2900, and 2810 December, with resistance at 3060, 3100, and 3130 December.

DJ Ivory Coast’s Cocoa Exports Plunge on Year
By Emmanuel Tumanjong
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
Cocoa exports by Ivory Coast between October 2022 and July 2023 fell year on year, according to figures released Monday by the country’s customs department.
Customs reported that 1,305,714 tons of cocoa were exported in the period, down 10% compared with the same period a year prior.
The cocoa season in Ivory Coast officially starts in October of each year, through September of the subsequent year.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322