Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed higher again yesterday in range trading. Support came from ideas of reduced US and world production potential. Weak demand is still a problem and export demand was trimmed in the supply and demand reports. Ideas are around that Chinese economic data implies less US cotton demand for the coming year but demand from other buyers has been good. There is more talk of a contraction that could develop in China and Cotton demand could be hurt if people have less money to spend on clothes. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. However, there are also production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.32 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 9,821 bales, from 7,729 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.50, 85.20, and 84.90 December, with resistance of 88.60, 89.00 and 90.80 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday and made new highs for the move. The market has been dynamic as traders are wary about selling futures due to the hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage crops in Florida again. Hurricane Lee was the latest storm, but the track has kept it away from the southeast US. Another storm is forming in the Atlantic now to bring more risk to the start. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 356.00 and 382.00 November. Support is at 332.00, 325.00, and 322.00 November, with resistance at 347.00, 350.00, and 353.00 November.
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed lower yesterday as demand for lower quality Arabicas improved due to the recent price strength in Robusta and the lack of offers from Asia, mostly from Vietnam but also Indonesia. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers and the differentials offered have been very high. The Brazil harvest moving quickly and this fact has pressured prices. Vietnam is not offering much Coffee into the world market as domestic cash prices are very high.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.448 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 158.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 2 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,397 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 163.00 and 171.00 December. Support is at 160.00, 157.00, and 155.00 December, and resistance is at 164.00, 167.00 and 171.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2530, 2480, and 2460 November, with resistance at 2610, 2640, and 2670 November.
DJ Brazil Trims Total 2023 Coffee Crop Estimate to 54.4M Bags
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian government crop agency Conab on Wednesday trimmed its estimate for coffee production this year to 54.4 million bags as unfavorable weather in the state of Espirito Santo reduced the crop of the robusta variety of beans.
Brazil, the world’s biggest producer and exporter of coffee, grew 50.9 million 132-pound bags of coffee in 2022, and in May Conab forecast a total coffee crop of 54.7 million bags for this year.
Brazilian farmers produced 38.2 million bags of the more popular arabica beans, up from the 37.9 million bags Conab forecast in May. Brazil produced 32.7 million bags in 2022. The harvest of arabica coffee is in its final stages, the agency said.
Farmers grew 16.2 million bags of the robusta variety in 2023, down from the 16.8 million bags Conab forecast in May. Last year, Brazil grew 18.2 million bags. The robusta harvest ended in August, Conab said.
General Comments: Both markets closed higher again yesterday as the market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. Chart trends are mostly up. The Asian dryness the main feature. Traders are worried about the lack of Sugar exports from India. The Indian monsoon is expected to withdraw early this year and leave Sugarcane high and dry. Many growing areas have been dry, anyway. There are also worries about the Thai and Indian production potential for this year of El Nino. Reports of offers from Brazil are still around but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil reports very good harvest conditions but the weather in Southeast Asia is currently dry. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2850 and 2950 March. Support is at 2750, 2700, and 2670 March and resistance is at 2810, 2840, and 2870 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 728.00, 720,00, and 706.00 December, with resistance at 747.00, 750.00, and 753.00 December.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in recovery trading from the sharp move lower to start the week. The supply and demand situation remains bullish. Reports of diseases in West Africa that are hurting production continue. The diseases are from too much rain falling at this time. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.043 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3610, 3570, and 3530 December, with resistance at 3700, 3730, and 3770 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3020, 2990, and 2900 December, with resistance at 3100, 3130, and 3170 December.