Grains Report 09/15/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE September Sep 18, 2023 249 Aug 17, 2023
CORN September Sep 18, 2023 4 Sep 11, 2023
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 18, 2023 2 Sep 14, 2023
SOYBEAN September Sep 18, 2023 220 Sep 14, 2023
WHEAT September Sep 18, 2023 95 Sep 14, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower yesterday in response to another disappointing weekly export sales report. The WASDE reports released on Tuesday showed much less than expected world ending stocks estimates. USDA left US ending stocks unchanged and about as expected, but the dramatic drop in world stocks caught traders by surprise and implied that a rally is possible for US Wheat sooner or later. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible due to bombing by the Russians. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU but this is considered to be a very expensive option for them. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either as Ukraine has started to bomb Russian ports. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for Austraalia and Argentina, with production losses now expected for both countries.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 584, 570, and 564 December, with resistance at 616, 626, and 640 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 726, 709, and 704 November, with resistance at 745, 755, and 772 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 770, 760, and 756 December, and resistance is at 790, 793, and 810 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday in response to a week of solid export sales and in recovery trading from the lows seen after the release of the USDA crop reports on Tuesday. USDA increased production and also carry in stocks for the coming marketing year and ending stocks were increased as there was not enough new demand shown to absorb the significant supply increase. Trends are up on the daily charts. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. Some fields are getting abandoned due to extreme heat affecting the production in a very negative way. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because not enough rain in some production areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1720 and 1630 November. Support is at 1598, 1584, and 1573 November and resistance is at 1640, 1638, and 1687 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower in lifeless trading and Oats was lower yesterday in response to the StatsCan production estimates. Ideas that USDA could reduce Corn yields further in coming reports and therefore cut production and ending stocks estimates. The selling earlier in the week had been in response to the USDA reports that showed greater than expected production. Yields were cut but the planted and harvested area was increased by 800,000acres to cause the production increase. It seems possible that yields will be cut more in coming reports. Expectations are for stressful weather to continue Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. The harvest is coming so moisture needs are less, and many producers report that Corn is shtting down early and that the harvest could start sooner than normal. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 474, 471, and 468 December, and resistance is at 507, 517, and 523 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 468 and 456 December. Support is at 465, 456, and 445 December, and resistance is at 493, 503, and 510 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on speculative buying tied to ideas of better demand. The monthly crush data is due out today and expected to show very strong domestic demand. USDA cut yield estimates in line with trade expectations but increased planted and harvested acreage by 100,000 acres to keep production estimates higher than the trade had expected. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Weather forecasts call for warm and dry conditions for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1330 and 1298 November. Support is at 1351, 1334, and 1324 November, and resistance is at 1385, 1395, and 1409 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 393.00, 389.00, and 387.00 October, and resistance is at 403.00, 410.00, and 413.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6150, 6000, and 5940 October, with resistance at 6290, 6400, and 6480 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on price strength in outside markets. Support also came from ideas of less production in coming months due to adverse growing conditions caused by El Nini. MPOB estimated production for Augus at 1.703 million tons, up 8.91%, and exports at 1.223 million tons, down 9.78%. Ending stocks were estimated at 2.124 million tons, up 22.54% from July. AmSpec estimated September 1-15 exports at 574,936 tons, from 633,685 tons in August. Both sets of data were bearish for prices, but bullish traders still think that El Nino will cause big production problems down the road and are holding out hopes for rallies in the future.. Canola was also a little higher yesterday in sympathy with the price action in the outside markets and in response to the StatsCan production estimates. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed, but some rain is falling now. The StatsCan stocks report showed supplies were above trade expectations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 746.00 and 712.00 November. Support is at 744.00, 739.00, and 723.00 November, with resistance at 790.00, 802.00, and 821.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3780, 3750, and 3720 December, with resistance at 3910, 3940, and 5020 December.

DJ Malaysia Palm-Oil Exports Fell 9.3% on Month in Sept. 1-15, AmSpec Says
By Jiahui Huang
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the Sept. 1-15 period are estimated to have fallen 9.3% on month to 574,936 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Sept. 1-15 Aug. 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 149,759 170,315
RBD Palm Oil 26,430 50,565
RBD Palm Stearin 61,429 58,907
Crude Palm Oil 144,503 219,910
Total* 574,936 633,585
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry, but a few showers near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 125 Dec 130 Sep
85 Sep
120 Nov

October
125 Dec 130 Dec
85 Dec 120 Nov

November
112 Dec
140 Dec 100 Dec 100 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 837.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 837.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 852.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 872.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 845.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 845.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 860.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 880.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 790.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 785.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,750.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 240.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.689)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 144,839 lots, or 7.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 5,103 5,165 5,097 5,100 5,102 5,125 23 103,216 117,186
Jan-24 5,080 5,143 5,080 5,092 5,086 5,109 23 25,449 60,094
Mar-24 5,036 5,095 5,036 5,044 5,036 5,063 27 14,796 9,050
May-24 5,047 5,102 5,044 5,054 5,051 5,073 22 1,198 6,228
Jul-24 5,016 5,056 5,016 5,022 5,008 5,032 24 126 964
Sep-24 5,045 5,045 5,001 5,005 5,008 5,013 5 54 35
Corn
Turnover: 697,976 lots, or 18.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 2,660 2,695 2,660 2,692 2,661 2,679 18 417,902 522,544
Jan-24 2,600 2,622 2,596 2,615 2,588 2,609 21 165,787 444,245
Mar-24 2,587 2,608 2,584 2,602 2,576 2,595 19 50,709 160,342
May-24 2,605 2,622 2,600 2,616 2,595 2,611 16 24,179 123,835
Jul-24 2,601 2,619 2,595 2,613 2,589 2,607 18 38,741 69,178
Sep-24 2,620 2,620 2,596 2,615 2,589 2,608 19 658 498
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,870,097 lots, or 73.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 4,410 4,528 4,390 4,516 4,406 4,465 59 204,849 304,258
Dec-23 4,141 4,230 4,129 4,226 4,129 4,190 61 28,084 61,354
Jan-24 3,985 4,069 3,980 4,062 3,982 4,026 44 1,221,411 1,726,942
Mar-24 3,680 3,748 3,678 3,738 3,671 3,721 50 12,283 63,958
May-24 3,385 3,443 3,376 3,438 3,374 3,414 40 253,020 610,475
Jul-24 3,329 3,395 3,329 3,392 3,330 3,366 36 41,542 454,386
Aug-24 3,346 3,428 3,346 3,425 3,346 3,396 50 69,541 67,524
Sep-24 3,360 3,423 3,350 3,421 3,346 3,393 47 39,367 26,636
Palm Oil
Turnover: 725,631 lots, or 5.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-23 7,402 7,480 7,370 7,398 7,366 7,424 58 11,354 7,275
Nov-23 7,444 7,528 7,390 7,426 7,412 7,456 44 16,387 50,745
Dec-23 7,484 7,560 7,428 7,462 7,448 7,490 42 6,782 34,889
Jan-24 7,480 7,576 7,448 7,478 7,442 7,506 64 626,740 469,808
Feb-24 7,502 7,582 7,464 7,500 7,458 7,516 58 6,006 20,080
Mar-24 7,512 7,586 7,480 7,510 7,468 7,526 58 4,773 16,610
Apr-24 7,500 7,594 7,492 7,532 7,464 7,534 70 4,361 3,566
May-24 7,484 7,598 7,484 7,536 7,450 7,536 86 48,744 81,604
Jun-24 7,494 7,578 7,476 7,518 7,434 7,504 70 255 768
Jul-24 7,468 7,564 7,456 7,492 7,416 7,500 84 83 777
Aug-24 7,460 7,530 7,452 7,480 7,412 7,482 70 79 1,137
Sep-24 7,524 7,542 7,390 7,456 7,412 7,448 36 67 46
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 882,911 lots, or 73.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-23 8,502 8,616 8,492 8,516 8,462 8,536 74 25,025 98,768
Dec-23 8,418 8,508 8,408 8,430 8,362 8,442 80 2,286 33,492
Jan-24 8,312 8,402 8,284 8,310 8,236 8,328 92 796,213 596,632
Mar-24 8,096 8,182 8,080 8,146 8,000 8,120 120 2,167 30,656
May-24 7,872 7,986 7,872 7,920 7,826 7,920 94 48,744 98,906
Jul-24 7,798 7,890 7,784 7,818 7,730 7,822 92 6,294 114,404
Aug-24 7,800 7,896 7,794 7,824 7,750 7,830 80 1,930 21,972
Sep-24 7,800 7,888 7,708 7,786 7,750 7,792 42 252 144
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322