Grains Report 09/15/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep 15, 2023 1 Sep 12, 2023
ROUGH RICE September Sep 15, 2023 74 Aug 15, 2023
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 15, 2023 2 Sep 13, 2023
WHEAT September Sep 15, 2023 38 Sep 13, 2023
MINI-SIZED WHEAT September Sep 15, 2023 5 Sep 13, 2023

DJ Statistics Canada Crop Production Report
WINNIPEG – Canada 2023-24 grain/oilseed production estimates. The model-
based results were compiled using satellite imagery. Source: Statistics
Canada. Production in thousand metric tons, yield in kg/hectare, area
harvested in thousand hectares.
Harvested Avg Production
area yield 2023-24 2023-24 2022-23
SEP AUG FINAL
barley 2,662.0 2,946 7,842.1 7,923.9 9,986.7
edible beans 118.7 2,331 276.6 269.9 313.0
canaryseed 101.3 1,223 123.9 127.1 159.3
canola 8,857.9 1,961 17,368.4 17,561.4 18,694.8
chickpeas 124.0 1,084 134.4 132.6 127.9
corn 1,503.1 9,934 14,931.8 14,726.9 14,538.9
faba beans N/A N/A N/A N/A 87.8
flaxseed 237.2 1,129 267.9 265.4 473.2
lentils 1,463.3 1,054 1,542.2 1,536.6 2,300.6
mixed grains 59.9 2,367 141.8 145.9 202.8
mustard 248.3 676 167.8 157.4 161.8
oats 828.8 2,938 2,434.9 2,428.8 5,226.5
dry peas 1,203.6 1,888 2,272.2 2,191.1 3,423.3
fall rye* 118.0 2,989 352.7 357.9 520.2
soybeans 2,262.2 2,972 6,722.4 6,734.8 6,543.2
sugar beets N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,278.6
sunflower seed 34.8 2,231 77.7 75.5 84.1
triticale N/A N/A N/A N/A 60.5
all wheat 10,649.5 2,802 29,834.8 29,472.1 34,334.8
durum wheat 2,362.9 1,718 4,058.8 4,258.6 5,789.6
spring wheat 7,717.7 2,933 22,637.2 22,101.5 25,844.1
winter wheat* 568.9 5,517 3,138.8 3,112.0 2,701.1
*Fall rye and winter wheat numbers represent what was remaining
after winterkill.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 14
For the week ended Sep 7, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 437.9 0.0 8313.1 10222.6 3721.7 44.3
hrw 62.3 0.0 1491.2 2980.3 590.8 11.2
srw 34.6 0.0 1917.1 1898.3 707.9 33.0
hrs 167.7 0.0 2973.5 2922.3 1419.4 0.2
white 133.2 0.0 1690.7 2293.5 787.4 0.0
durum 40.0 0.0 240.5 128.1 216.2 0.0
corn 753.3 25.4 11159.9 12301.2 10433.9 145.0
soybeans 703.9 0.0 16644.9 25281.0 16236.5 0.0
soymeal -201.6 454.7 12893.4 12037.0 1213.6 2920.2
soyoil -3.9 0.0 126.6 703.3 13.5 6.0
upland cotton 67.4 25.3 5379.3 7956.7 4336.2 386.8
pima cotton 1.0 0.0 58.1 102.4 29.5 1.5
sorghum 67.5 0.0 1997.4 239.7 1864.9 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.0 15.5 16.0 0.0
rice 67.2 0.0 655.9 422.3 429.1 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying seen in reaction to the WASDE reports released on Tuesday that showed much less than expected world ending stocks estimates., USDA left US ending stocks unchanged and about as expected, but the dramatic drop in world stocks caught traders by surprise and implied that a rally is possible for US Wheat sooner or later. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible due to bombing by the Russians. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU but this is considered to be a very expensive option for them. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 591, 570, and 564 December, with resistance at 616, 626, and 640 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 733, 709, and 704 November, with resistance at 755, 772, and 789 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 770, 760, and 756 December, and resistance is at 790, 793, and 810 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday in recovery trading from the big selling seen on Tuesday in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA increased production and also carry in stocks for the coming marketing year and ending stocks were increased as there was not enough new demand shown to absorb the significant supply increase. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. Some fields are getting abandoned due to extreme heat affecting the production in a very negative way. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because not enough rain in some production areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is once again possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1573, 1561, and 1555 November and resistance is at 1600, 1619, and 1640 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher yesterday on ideas tht USDA could reduce yields further in coming reports and therefore cut production and ending stocks estimates. The selling the previous day came in response to the USDA reports that showed greater than expected production. Yields were cut but the planted and harvested area was increased by 800,000acres to cause the production increase. It seems possible that yields will be cut more in coming reports. Expectations are for stressful weather to continue Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 474, 471, and 468 December, and resistance is at 507, 517, and 523 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 481, 477, and 456 December, and resistance is at 510, 522, and 528 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday in response to the release of the WASDE and US production reports. USDA cut yield estimates in line with trade expectations but increased planted and harvested acreage by 100,000 acres to keep production estimates higher than the trade had expected. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Weather forecasts call for warm and dry conditions for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1330 and 1298 November. Support is at 1334, 1324, and 1303 November, and resistance is at 1373, 1385, and 1395 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objective of 388.00 and 370.00 Octoer. Support is at 393.00, 389.00, and 387.00 October, and resistance is at 403.00, 410.00, and 413.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6150, 6000, and 5940 October, with resistance at 6290, 6400, and 6480 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower. MPOB estimated production for Augus at 1.703 million tons, up 8.91%, and exports at 1.223 million tons, down 9.78%. Ending stocks were estimated at 2.124 million tons, up 22.54% from July. AmSpec estimated September 1-10 exports at 305,825 tons, from 393,795 tons in August. Both sets of data were bearish for prices, but bullish traders still think that El Nino will cause big production problems down the road and are holding out hopes for rallies in the future.. Canola was lower yesterday in sympathy with the price action in the outside markets and on a stronger Canadian Dollar. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed, but some rain is falling now. The StatsCan stocks report showed supplies were above trade expectations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 746.00 and 712.00 November. Support is at 747.00, 739.00, and 723.00 November, with resistance at 764.00, 790.00, and 802.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3680, 3620, and 3540 November, with resistance at 3800, 3910, and 3990 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry, but a few showers near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 125 Dec 130 Sep
85 Sep
120 Nov

October
125 Dec 130 Dec
85 Dec 120 Nov

November
112 Dec
140 Dec 100 Dec 100 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 835.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 835.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 845.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 867.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 845.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 845.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 855.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 877.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 780.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 775.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,750.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 240.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6825)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 153,899 lots, or 7.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 – – – 5,274 5,194 5,274 80 100 0
Nov-23 5,126 5,138 5,083 5,103 5,165 5,102 -63 113,066 118,725
Jan-24 5,117 5,117 5,066 5,085 5,140 5,086 -54 26,560 58,561
Mar-24 5,063 5,065 5,020 5,036 5,087 5,036 -51 13,340 8,492
May-24 5,066 5,066 5,036 5,045 5,097 5,051 -46 720 5,933
Jul-24 5,020 5,023 4,994 5,008 5,049 5,008 -41 113 920
Corn
Turnover: 616,988 lots, or 16.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,780 2,780 2,750 2,750 2,925 2,842 -83 100 0
Nov-23 2,654 2,672 2,644 2,664 2,646 2,661 15 381,633 532,545
Jan-24 2,584 2,599 2,577 2,598 2,586 2,588 2 140,762 447,991
Mar-24 2,571 2,586 2,567 2,585 2,575 2,576 1 46,749 164,506
May-24 2,588 2,603 2,588 2,602 2,594 2,595 1 17,507 119,405
Jul-24 2,590 2,600 2,583 2,599 2,590 2,589 -1 30,237 66,056
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,762,190 lots, or 68.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,600 4,630 4,600 4,610 4,596 4,830 234 1,268 0
Nov-23 4,404 4,438 4,361 4,404 4,397 4,406 9 147,813 303,217
Dec-23 4,140 4,163 4,095 4,133 4,146 4,129 -17 21,389 60,620
Jan-24 3,996 4,014 3,948 3,979 4,004 3,982 -22 1,263,498 1,736,765
Mar-24 3,693 3,698 3,640 3,672 3,712 3,671 -41 16,741 63,082
May-24 3,393 3,397 3,343 3,372 3,415 3,374 -41 244,990 606,891
Jul-24 3,346 3,352 3,303 3,326 3,369 3,330 -39 46,382 455,614
Aug-24 3,367 3,368 3,316 3,343 3,386 3,346 -40 20,109 46,335
Palm Oil
Turnover: 698,345 lots, or 51.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 – – – 7,778 7,378 7,778 400 23 0
Oct-23 7,348 7,412 7,288 7,394 7,348 7,366 18 7,528 9,313
Nov-23 7,386 7,458 7,328 7,432 7,386 7,412 26 12,494 51,489
Dec-23 7,386 7,484 7,356 7,460 7,408 7,448 40 5,205 34,581
Jan-24 7,408 7,498 7,358 7,472 7,426 7,442 16 626,230 470,588
Feb-24 7,400 7,494 7,362 7,474 7,424 7,458 34 4,333 19,780
Mar-24 7,428 7,506 7,372 7,484 7,428 7,468 40 2,625 16,489
Apr-24 7,416 7,506 7,372 7,486 7,434 7,464 30 3,899 3,567
May-24 7,396 7,500 7,362 7,484 7,418 7,450 32 35,494 75,948
Jun-24 7,390 7,476 7,354 7,454 7,402 7,434 32 200 695
Jul-24 7,360 7,460 7,340 7,442 7,374 7,416 42 161 770
Aug-24 7,354 7,450 7,328 7,436 7,352 7,412 60 153 1,146
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 881,542 lots, or 72.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 – – – 8,732 8,564 8,732 168 0 0
Nov-23 8,406 8,520 8,368 8,502 8,460 8,462 2 22,309 100,318
Dec-23 8,318 8,410 8,270 8,392 8,368 8,362 -6 2,402 33,469
Jan-24 8,176 8,298 8,132 8,290 8,252 8,236 -16 800,123 598,262
Mar-24 7,948 8,084 7,928 8,076 8,002 8,000 -2 2,683 30,825
May-24 7,780 7,884 7,722 7,872 7,816 7,826 10 45,506 99,021
Jul-24 7,716 7,790 7,642 7,782 7,730 7,730 0 6,161 114,898
Aug-24 7,696 7,796 7,654 7,790 7,714 7,750 36 2,358 22,024
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322