Grains Report 09/12/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep 13, 2023 35 Aug 31, 2023
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 13, 2023 15 Aug 01, 2023
OATS September Sep 13, 2023 1 Sep 08, 2023
WHEAT September Sep 13, 2023 77 Sep 11, 2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 11
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Sept 11, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 07, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/07/2023 08/31/2023 09/08/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 122 0 0 521 1,414
CORN 623,862 482,789 474,388 623,862 597,743
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 399 0 100 3,594 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 134,654 107,675 46,513 134,654 47,807
SOYBEANS 310,073 406,934 341,713 310,073 394,012
SUNFLOWER 384 672 384 384 384
WHEAT 406,181 318,076 757,804 4,754,529 6,421,865
Total 1,475,675 1,316,146 1,620,902 5,827,617 7,469,711
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 10-Sep 3-Sep 2022 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 98 94 100 98
Cotton Bolls Opening 43 32 48 42
Cotton Harvested 8 8 7
Crorn Dough 97 93 95 96
Corn Dented 82 67 75 78
Corn Mature 34 18 24 28
Corn Harvested 5 5 4
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 31 16 28 25
Sorghum Headed 97 93 95 99
Sorghum Coloring 74 61 72 76
Sorghum Mature 37 28 35 34
Sorghum Harvested 21 19 22 22
Peanuts Harvested 2 2 2
Rice Harvested 45 34 33 35
Oats Harvested 95 90 94 90
Barley Harvested 89 80 89 90
Spring Wheat Harvested 87 74 83 87
Winter Wheat Planted 7 1 9 7

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 18 23 30 24 5
Cotton Last Week 19 22 28 26 5
Cotton Last Year 15 22 30 29 4

Corn This Week 6 12 30 43 9
Corn Last Week 6 12 29 44 9
Corn Last Year 9 11 27 41 12

Soybeans This Week 6 12 30 45 9
Soybeans Last Week 5 12 30 44 9
Soybeans Last Year 5 10 29 45 11

Sorghum This Week 10 16 30 35 9
Sorghum Last Week 10 16 30 36 8
Sorghum Last Year 17 29 34 19 1

Rice This Week 0 3 26 56 15
Rice Last Week 1 5 24 55 15
Rice Last Year 1 3 24 58 12

Peanuts This Week 4 10 34 47 5
Peanuts Last Week 2 8 34 51 5
Peaanuts Last Year 1 5 26 58 10

Pasture and Range This Week 18 21 28 27 6
Pasture and Range Last Week 16 20 28 29 7
Pasture and Range Last Year 19 21 30 24 5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower yesterday in anticipation of the WASDE reports to be released on Tuesday, Ideas are that USDA will cut demand and increase ending stocks. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible due to bombing by the Russians. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU but this is considered to be a very expensive option for them. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 577 December. Support is at 576, 570, and 564 November, with resistance at 599, 616, and 626 November. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 711, 704, and 691 November, with resistance at 736, 755, and 772 November. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 756, 752, and 746 November, and resistance is at 772, 787, and 790 November.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative follow through selling as he market anticipate a big US production estimate today. Trends are down on the daily charts. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. Some fields are getting abandoned due to extreme heat affecting the production in a very negative way. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because not enough rain in some production areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is once again possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1571, 1555, and 1512 November and resistance is at 1600, 1619, and 1640 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were a little higher yesterday as bad US growing conditions battled continued to be seen. However, the trade does not anticipate much of a reduced production estimate from USDA tody. CONAB raised its production estimate to just over 131 million tons. Expectations are for stressful weather to continue. Weakness was seen before the WASDE and US production reports to be released on Tuesday on ideas that USDA will show strong production potential once again. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 474, 471, and 468 December, and resistance is at 507, 517, and 523 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 481, 477, and 456 December, and resistance is at 510, 522, and 528 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative trading tied to the release of the WASDE and US production reports on Tuesday. Ideas are that the reports will continue to show strong yield potential. Deteriorating crop conditions as reported by USDA on Tuesday could mean lower yield potential in this report and in coming production estimates. USDA cut the good to excellent categories by five percentage points for both Corn and Soybeans. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Weather forecasts call for warm and dry conditions for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1353, 1338, and 1333 November, and resistance is at 1385, 1395, and 1409 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 414.00 and 425.00 October. Support is at 402.00, 393.00, and 389.00 October, and resistance is at 413.00, 416.00, and 423.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 6060 and 5770 October. Support is at 6060, 6000, and 5940 October, with resistance at 6400, 6580, and 6700 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas of weaker demand and strong production. Futures were lower today. The private sources reported that the export pace is behind that of the previous month. Production ideas are strong and are helping to keep rallies in check. Canola was lower yesterday. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed, but some rain is falling now. The StatsCan stocks report showed supplies were above trade expectations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 746.00 and 712.00 November. Support is at 758.00, 754.00, and 747.00 November, with resistance at 790.00, 802.00, and 808.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3700, 3680, and 3650 November, with resistance at 3910, 3990, and 4070 November.

DJ Malaysia Palm-Oil Exports Fell 20.38% in Sept. 1-10, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the Sept. 1-10 period are estimated to have fallen 20.38% on month to 305,594 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Sept. 1-10 Aug. 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 83,409 105,075
RBD Palm Oil 7,450 42,415
RBD Palm Stearin 25,825 42,600
Crude Palm Oil 60,415 118,710
Total* 305,594 383,795
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysia’s Palm-Oil Exports Fell 9.8% in August, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports were down 9.8% on month at 1.22 million metric tons in August, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the August crop data and revised numbers for July, issued by MPOB:
August July Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,753,472 1,609,977 Up 8.91%
Palm Oil Exports 1,221,814 1,354,336 Dn 9.78%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 91,866 77,729 Up 18.19%
Palm Oil Imports 110,621 103,837 Up 6.53%
Closing Stocks 2,124,963 1,734,157 Up 22.54%
Crude Palm Oil 1,200,612 886,384 Up 35.45%
Processed Palm Oil 924,351 847,773 Up 9.03%

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry, but a few showers near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 125 Dec 130 Sep
85 Sep
120 Nov

October
125 Dec 130 Dec
85 Dec 120 Nov

November
112 Dec
140 Dec 100 Dec 100 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 820.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 820.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 835.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 860.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 830.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 830.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 845.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 870.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 765.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 765.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,680.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 240.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6725)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 144,664 lots, or 7.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 – – – 5,246 5,246 5,246 0 0 2,438
Nov-23 5,157 5,205 5,145 5,178 5,152 5,173 21 106,362 117,458
Jan-24 5,123 5,168 5,116 5,150 5,119 5,145 26 26,085 54,940
Mar-24 5,068 5,110 5,062 5,090 5,070 5,086 16 11,339 8,185
May-24 5,090 5,119 5,081 5,098 5,083 5,102 19 738 5,549
Jul-24 5,053 5,073 5,042 5,059 5,048 5,054 6 140 872
Corn
Turnover: 540,021 lots, or 14.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,877 2,877 2,825 2,825 2,836 2,825 -11 202 4,937
Nov-23 2,665 2,666 2,644 2,652 2,667 2,656 -11 344,955 554,960
Jan-24 2,605 2,608 2,593 2,595 2,603 2,600 -3 96,009 418,630
Mar-24 2,591 2,593 2,581 2,583 2,589 2,586 -3 44,804 161,441
May-24 2,603 2,613 2,600 2,605 2,608 2,606 -2 17,253 109,265
Jul-24 2,601 2,606 2,590 2,596 2,602 2,599 -3 36,798 60,758
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,573,606 lots, or 63.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,738 4,738 4,658 4,658 4,826 4,711 -115 3 2,000
Nov-23 4,527 4,529 4,446 4,460 4,517 4,485 -32 132,752 307,852
Dec-23 4,268 4,268 4,196 4,205 4,252 4,232 -20 17,587 60,687
Jan-24 4,111 4,120 4,044 4,057 4,098 4,084 -14 1,169,856 1,775,221
Mar-24 3,792 3,802 3,751 3,762 3,782 3,779 -3 11,225 61,833
May-24 3,492 3,495 3,450 3,457 3,478 3,473 -5 180,695 576,712
Jul-24 3,441 3,443 3,400 3,407 3,431 3,425 -6 41,355 443,867
Aug-24 3,455 3,456 3,414 3,422 3,443 3,435 -8 20,133 42,831
Palm Oil
Turnover: 720,410 lots, or 53.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 – – – 7,378 7,624 7,378 -246 0 2,005
Oct-23 7,386 7,408 7,330 7,348 7,518 7,374 -144 8,853 12,647
Nov-23 7,368 7,456 7,368 7,398 7,544 7,416 -128 14,686 54,698
Dec-23 7,414 7,480 7,398 7,428 7,572 7,440 -132 4,364 34,303
Jan-24 7,420 7,488 7,402 7,436 7,568 7,446 -122 628,992 479,127
Feb-24 7,456 7,494 7,404 7,436 7,576 7,456 -120 4,369 19,574
Mar-24 7,418 7,502 7,404 7,444 7,562 7,464 -98 2,595 16,412
Apr-24 7,420 7,508 7,398 7,446 7,546 7,464 -82 4,911 3,364
May-24 7,450 7,494 7,376 7,428 7,496 7,440 -56 51,234 73,190
Jun-24 7,360 7,442 7,336 7,398 7,414 7,394 -20 171 502
Jul-24 7,352 7,406 7,308 7,368 7,428 7,368 -60 119 540
Aug-24 7,320 7,398 7,308 7,356 7,438 7,348 -90 116 295
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 765,183 lots, or 6.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,564 8,564 8,564 8,564 8,620 8,564 -56 4 1,500
Nov-23 8,502 8,548 8,460 8,486 8,556 8,504 -52 20,390 102,570
Dec-23 8,430 8,444 8,360 8,400 8,448 8,400 -48 1,915 33,323
Jan-24 8,200 8,310 8,198 8,274 8,310 8,268 -42 690,592 598,525
Mar-24 8,002 8,086 8,002 8,054 8,088 8,048 -40 764 31,483
May-24 7,808 7,878 7,774 7,840 7,866 7,834 -32 45,435 91,830
Jul-24 7,734 7,780 7,682 7,742 7,776 7,742 -34 4,765 114,933
Aug-24 7,704 7,790 7,704 7,746 7,794 7,754 -40 1,318 19,466
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322