Grains Report 09/08/2023

DJ Food Prices Fell in August, But Rice Prices Hit 15-Year High
By Yusuf Khan
Food prices fell in August as a strong supply of wheat, corn and other key foodstuffs helped to lower global food commodity prices, but risks remain for rice, the cost of which jumped after the introduction of Indian export restrictions, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Friday.
The UN FAO’s food price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods, averaged 121.4 points in August, down 2.1% from July, putting prices 24% lower than the March 2022 peak. The Rome-based body said that much of the decline was led by lower dairy and vegetable oil prices helping to ease inflation worries for policy makers.
That said, the UN FAO highlighted skyrocketing prices for rice, with its price index up 9.8% during the month–hitting a 15-year high–following significant trade disruptions after India introduced a ban on exports for Indica white rice.
The country is the world’s largest rice exporter and uncertainty about the ban’s duration and concerns over export restrictions caused “supply-chain actors to hold on to stocks, renegotiate contracts or stop making price offers, thereby limiting most trade to small volumes and previously concluded sales,” the report said.
Outside of rice, cereal prices overall were down 0.7% from July to , with wheat down 3.8% and coarse grains such as corn down 3.4% amid strong supply from exporting countries such as Russia and Brazil, respectively.
Vegetable oil prices fell 3.1% in August to an index of 125.8, led by falls in sunflower oil, with weakening demand and strong supply of other vegetable oils pushing prices lower. The August decline, however, comes off the back of a 12% hike in July, putting prices roughly just below where they were in April.
Prices for sugar rose 1.3% in August, some 34.1% higher than a year ago. The FAO said that most of this has been led by worries over poor harvest triggered by the El Nino weather phenomenon.
“In India, below-average rains in August were detrimental to sugarcane crop development, while persistent dry weather conditions in Thailand are expected to negatively affect the 2023-24 sugar production.”
Elsewhere, dairy prices fell 4% from July, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline and putting prices 22% lower than a year ago. Meat prices were down 3% to 114.6 points in August, led by falling prices for sheep and chicken.

DJ Canadian Grain, Oilseed Stocks as of July 31, 2023 – StatsCan
WINNIPEG–The following is the Statistics Canada grain and
oilseed stocks in all positions report.
Figures are as of July 31, 2023, in thousand metric tons.
Source: Statistics Canada.
On Farms Commercial Total
Jul 31 Jul 31 Jul 31 Jul 31 Jul 31 Jul 31
2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022
Barley 557 324 152 219 708 543
Canaryseed 47 36 8 18 55 54
Canola 493 692 1,012 633 1,506 1,325
Chickpeas 5 130 23 25 27 155
Corn N/A 1,584 N/A 1,161 N/A 2,746
Flaxseed 167 35 53 47 220 82
Lentils 28 89 119 134 147 223
Mustard 30 12 10 4 40 16
Oats 789 162 486 171 1,275 333
Peas 300 154 198 185 498 339
Rye 80 56 25 28 105 84
Soybeans N/A 37 N/A 250 N/A 287
Sunflower 144 115 6 3 151 118
All wheat 875 953 2,710 2,709 3,584 3,663
Durum 125 83 271 486 396 569

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 8
For the week ended Sep 1, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for rice and cotton began Aug 1. The
marketing year for soymeal and soyoil will begin Oct 1.
For corn, soybeans and sorghum, “this year” is the 2023-2024
marketing year, which began Sep 1, while “last year” is 2022-2023.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 370.3 11.2 7875.3 10005.2 3695.2 44.3
hrw 63.9 11.2 1429.0 2896.0 615.0 11.2
srw 18.3 0.0 1882.5 1882.2 744.2 33.0
hrs 119.4 0.0 2805.8 2825.3 1441.7 0.2
white 108.8 0.0 1557.5 2273.4 718.1 0.0
durum 60.0 0.0 200.5 128.1 176.2 0.0
corn 2063.1-a 0.0 10406.6 11718.1 10406.6 119.6
soybeans 3005.8-b 0.0 15941.0 24438.0 15941.0 0.0
soymeal 297.1 143.1 13095.0 12002.9 1534.9 2465.5
soyoil -0.9 0.0 130.4 699.0 18.9 6.0
upland cotton 85.1 6.6 5311.9 7856.5 4387.0 361.6
pima cotton 2.8 0.0 57.2 101.3 36.0 1.5
sorghum 485.6-c 0.0 1929.8 228.0 1929.8 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.0 15.5 16.0 0.0
rice 31.5 0.0 588.6 377.8 440.9 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Aug 26-Sep 1 which
resulted in a net increase of 949.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes
1113.4 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2022-2023.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Aug 26-Sep 1 which resulted in a
a net increase of 1783.1 thousand metric tons. Also includes
1222.7 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2022-2023.
-c: Includes new sales activity for Aug 26-Sep 1 which resulted in
a net increase of 67.4 thousand metric tons. Also includes
418.2 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2022-2023.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 11, 2023 75 Jul 26, 2023
OATS September Sep 11, 2023 19 Sep 7, 2023
WHEAT September Sep 11, 2023 72 Sep 06, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower on what appeared to be speculative selling in anticipation of the WASDE reports to be released next week, Ideas are that USDA will cut demand and increase ending stocks. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible due to bombing by the Russians. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU but this is considered to be a very expensive option for them. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 592, 588, and 582 November, with resistance at 616, 626, and 646 November. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 731, 714, and 704 November, with resistance at 755, 772, and 789 November. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 769, 756, and 752 November, and resistance is at 790, 797, and 810 November.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. Some fields are getting abandoned due to extreme heat affecting the production in a very negative way. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because not enough rain in some production areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is once again possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers, mostly near the Gulf coast. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1618 and 1578 November. Support is at 1614, 1608, and 1601 November and resistance is at 1658, 1687, and 1700 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower as bad US growing conditions battled increased Brazil Corn production estimates. CONAB raised its production estimate to just over 131 million tons. Expectations are for stressful weather to continue. Weakness was also seen before the WASDE reports to be released nest week on ideas that USDA will show strong production potential once again. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 474, 471, and 468 December, and resistance is at 507, 517, and 523 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 472, 465, and 456 December, and resistance is at 500, 522, and 528 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on what appeared to be speculatve selling tied to the release of the WASDE reports next week. Ideas are that the reports will continue to show strong yield potential. Deteriorating crop conditions as reported by USDA on Tuesday could mean lower yield potential in this report and in coming production estimates. USDA cut the good to excellent categories by five percentage points for both Corn and Soybeans.. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Weather forecasts call for warm and dry conditions for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News: China bought 121,999 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1357, 1338, and 1333 November, and resistance is at 1395, 1409, and 1435 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 388.00 and 370.00 October. Support is at 393.00, 389.00, and 383.00 October, and resistance is at 406.00, 412.00, and 416.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 6060 and 5770 October. Support is at 6140, 6060, and 6000 October, with resistance at 6400, 6580, and 6700 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on ideas of weaker demand and strong production. The private sources reported that the export pace is behind that of the previous month. Production ideas are strong and are helping to keep rallies in check. Canola was lower again. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed, but some rain is falling now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 746.00 and 712.00 November. Support is at 777.00, 758.00, and 754.00 November, with resistance at 802.00, 808.00, and 821.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3700, 3680, and 3650 November, with resistance at 3910, 3990, and 4070 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry, but a few showers near the Great Lakes. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 110 Dec 115 Sep
65 Sep
140 Nov

October
94 Dec 130 Dec
80 Dec 115 Nov

November
92 Dec
140 Dec 95 Dec 107 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 840.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 847.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 865.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 880.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 850.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 857.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 875.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 890.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 780.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 775.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,800.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 244.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.675)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 140,022 lots, or 7.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,246 5,247 5,240 5,240 5,269 5,246 -23 93 3,638
Nov-23 5,228 5,228 5,144 5,154 5,235 5,182 -53 104,542 119,936
Jan-24 5,165 5,176 5,108 5,125 5,188 5,142 -46 27,605 52,642
Mar-24 5,126 5,126 5,062 5,076 5,133 5,093 -40 7,026 8,040
May-24 5,126 5,137 5,079 5,092 5,147 5,112 -35 675 4,829
Jul-24 5,088 5,096 5,050 5,050 5,110 5,069 -41 81 864
Corn
Turnover: 655,946 lots, or 17.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,815 2,856 2,815 2,856 2,838 2,846 8 38 7,912
Nov-23 2,676 2,677 2,654 2,657 2,689 2,664 -25 411,781 576,852
Jan-24 2,615 2,616 2,598 2,598 2,620 2,605 -15 134,137 417,862
Mar-24 2,601 2,601 2,583 2,584 2,603 2,590 -13 56,102 156,346
May-24 2,615 2,615 2,598 2,600 2,613 2,604 -9 18,644 101,344
Jul-24 2,609 2,609 2,593 2,593 2,608 2,599 -9 35,244 50,683
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,112,332 lots, or 8.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,878 4,878 4,800 4,800 4,878 4,829 -49 59 3,504
Nov-23 4,580 4,588 4,435 4,483 4,593 4,500 -93 225,065 330,844
Dec-23 4,300 4,303 4,200 4,215 4,311 4,245 -66 18,488 60,410
Jan-24 4,140 4,140 4,053 4,062 4,144 4,090 -54 1,520,533 1,773,316
Mar-24 3,813 3,817 3,734 3,742 3,825 3,772 -53 14,033 59,934
May-24 3,509 3,516 3,448 3,452 3,514 3,476 -38 243,601 547,024
Jul-24 3,465 3,465 3,406 3,410 3,463 3,432 -31 60,168 441,032
Aug-24 3,474 3,480 3,417 3,425 3,476 3,438 -38 30,385 40,016
Palm Oil
Turnover: 854,828 lots, or 64.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 – – – 7,624 7,624 7,624 0 0 2,005
Oct-23 7,558 7,558 7,418 7,498 7,604 7,486 -118 19,884 16,427
Nov-23 7,578 7,578 7,454 7,538 7,612 7,512 -100 23,322 53,731
Dec-23 7,570 7,590 7,476 7,556 7,632 7,534 -98 10,036 34,645
Jan-24 7,580 7,600 7,480 7,560 7,648 7,544 -104 740,080 459,130
Feb-24 7,574 7,596 7,478 7,552 7,636 7,540 -96 8,405 18,677
Mar-24 7,584 7,588 7,480 7,546 7,624 7,538 -86 3,624 16,414
Apr-24 7,550 7,584 7,466 7,532 7,618 7,524 -94 4,862 3,199
May-24 7,536 7,566 7,440 7,504 7,606 7,502 -104 44,378 65,195
Jun-24 7,498 7,516 7,412 7,482 7,556 7,466 -90 69 448
Jul-24 7,476 7,494 7,380 7,424 7,518 7,428 -90 87 513
Aug-24 7,450 7,464 7,368 7,416 7,498 7,408 -90 81 185
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,042,759 lots, or 8.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 – – – 8,620 8,678 8,620 -58 0 1,505
Nov-23 8,478 8,522 8,358 8,466 8,548 8,430 -118 35,528 101,291
Dec-23 8,442 8,450 8,290 8,376 8,472 8,360 -112 3,785 33,603
Jan-24 8,320 8,338 8,168 8,252 8,364 8,246 -118 929,459 601,689
Mar-24 8,118 8,124 7,958 8,040 8,144 8,032 -112 3,256 31,673
May-24 7,900 7,920 7,756 7,824 7,950 7,834 -116 56,532 88,163
Jul-24 7,826 7,830 7,684 7,728 7,862 7,752 -110 11,378 113,870
Aug-24 7,812 7,842 7,700 7,750 7,880 7,770 -110 2,821 18,508
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322