Grains Report 09/07/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 7
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
OATS September Sep 08, 2023 11 Sep 06, 2023
WHEAT September Sep 08, 2023 93 Sep 01, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher and trends are now mixed on the daily charts for all three markets, Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible due to bombing by the Russians. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU but this is considered to be a very expensive option for them. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 592, 588, and 582 November, with resistance at 616, 626, and 646 November. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 731, 714, and 704 November, with resistance at 755, 772, and 789 November. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 769, 756, and 752 November, and resistance is at 790, 797, and 810 November.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. Some fields are getting abandoned due to extreme heat affecting the production in a very negative way India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because not enough rain in some production areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is once again possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1650, 1639, and 1614 November and resistance is at 1687, 1700, and 1712 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower as bad US growing conditions battled increased Brazil Corn production estimates. CONAB raised its production estimate to just over 131 million tons. Expectations are for stressful weather to continue. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry but with moderate temperatures for the Midwest for the next week. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 474, 471, and 468 December, and resistance is at 507, 517, and 523 December. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 472, 465, and 456 December, and resistance is at 500, 522, and 528 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in response to deteriorating crop conditions as reported by USDA on Tuesday. USDA cut the good to excellent categories by five percentage points for both Corn and Soybeans.. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Weather forecasts call for warm and dry conditions for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1358, 1338, and 1333 November, and resistance is at 1395, 1409, and 1435 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 388.00 and 370.00 October. Support is at 393.00, 389.00, and 383.00 October, and resistance is at 406.00, 412.00, and 416.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6300, 6190, and 6060 October, with resistance at 6580, 6700, and 6800 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on ideas of weaker demand and strong production. The private sources reported that the export pace is behind that of the previous month. Production ideas are strong and are helping to keep rallies in check. Canola was lower again. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed, but some rain is falling now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 782.00, 777.00, and 758.00 November, with resistance at 821.00, 835.00, and 850.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 November, with resistance at 4160, 4210, and 4270 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 110 Dec 115 Sep
65 Sep
140 Nov

October
94 Dec 130 Dec
80 Dec 115 Nov

November
92 Dec
140 Dec 95 Dec 107 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 840.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 845.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 860.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 885.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 850.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 855.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 870.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 895.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 785.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 780.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,800.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 244.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6775)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 136,291 lots, or 7.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,270 5,270 5,250 5,250 5,246 5,269 23 322 5,765
Nov-23 5,246 5,270 5,203 5,219 5,290 5,235 -55 110,083 125,841
Jan-24 5,220 5,222 5,161 5,173 5,233 5,188 -45 17,748 49,618
Mar-24 5,168 5,168 5,108 5,116 5,174 5,133 -41 7,076 7,777
May-24 5,173 5,173 5,124 5,132 5,179 5,147 -32 946 4,585
Jul-24 5,130 5,130 5,083 5,097 5,138 5,110 -28 116 818
Corn
Turnover: 601,206 lots, or 1.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,844 2,844 2,822 2,825 2,844 2,838 -6 288 9,066
Nov-23 2,693 2,705 2,672 2,677 2,688 2,689 1 394,650 601,685
Jan-24 2,621 2,632 2,611 2,615 2,620 2,620 0 111,330 400,038
Mar-24 2,605 2,613 2,594 2,600 2,603 2,603 0 52,010 154,817
May-24 2,618 2,622 2,606 2,613 2,613 2,613 0 13,480 95,375
Jul-24 2,608 2,616 2,601 2,606 2,607 2,608 1 29,448 48,814
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,590,244 lots, or 64.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,900 4,910 4,850 4,850 4,888 4,878 -10 170 4,563
Nov-23 4,601 4,626 4,565 4,579 4,578 4,593 15 105,861 347,469
Dec-23 4,320 4,345 4,280 4,298 4,285 4,311 26 14,003 59,215
Jan-24 4,150 4,173 4,113 4,137 4,118 4,144 26 1,217,989 1,840,232
Mar-24 3,839 3,850 3,790 3,812 3,803 3,825 22 18,761 59,331
May-24 3,524 3,537 3,489 3,515 3,498 3,514 16 168,588 550,089
Jul-24 3,478 3,484 3,439 3,464 3,448 3,463 15 37,539 437,344
Aug-24 3,494 3,496 3,452 3,476 3,474 3,476 2 27,333 38,459
Palm Oil
Turnover: 837,814 lots, or 6.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,624 7,626 7,624 7,624 7,692 7,624 -68 54 2,005
Oct-23 7,686 7,686 7,538 7,540 7,700 7,604 -96 32,370 21,870
Nov-23 7,674 7,700 7,540 7,548 7,724 7,612 -112 14,016 55,334
Dec-23 7,696 7,722 7,560 7,572 7,740 7,632 -108 9,046 35,870
Jan-24 7,700 7,732 7,558 7,582 7,744 7,648 -96 721,633 473,410
Feb-24 7,724 7,726 7,562 7,582 7,742 7,636 -106 6,942 18,264
Mar-24 7,684 7,718 7,560 7,580 7,732 7,624 -108 3,874 16,380
Apr-24 7,668 7,706 7,550 7,572 7,720 7,618 -102 4,745 3,161
May-24 7,656 7,678 7,524 7,548 7,690 7,606 -84 44,876 65,363
Jun-24 7,592 7,634 7,488 7,512 7,642 7,556 -86 87 434
Jul-24 7,570 7,582 7,450 7,482 7,616 7,518 -98 103 516
Aug-24 7,554 7,564 7,414 7,462 7,560 7,498 -62 68 179
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 955,310 lots, or 79.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,678 8,678 8,678 8,678 8,672 8,678 6 1 1,555
Nov-23 8,630 8,632 8,464 8,508 8,626 8,548 -78 29,864 103,739
Dec-23 8,548 8,560 8,392 8,442 8,562 8,472 -90 3,129 33,734
Jan-24 8,422 8,454 8,272 8,320 8,438 8,364 -74 867,164 623,205
Mar-24 8,196 8,242 8,070 8,118 8,228 8,144 -84 2,430 31,478
May-24 8,008 8,040 7,866 7,898 8,024 7,950 -74 43,271 87,203
Jul-24 7,928 7,954 7,780 7,818 7,936 7,862 -74 6,804 112,924
Aug-24 7,936 7,962 7,800 7,832 7,952 7,880 -72 2,647 18,186
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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