William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
The bizarre weather patterns since June 1 have forced high volatility in Nov Beans this Summer – first a $3.00 rally off early hot & dry – then a $1.50 break off cool & wet – and finally a $1.30 rally off late hot & dry! The net result is a mkt hovering just off its 2023 high of course underpinned by a June 30 acreage report – which reflected 4 million less acres than 2022! That’s a staggering amount & has established the beans as the clear upside leader at the BOT! The Pro Farmer Tour – as a result – estimated our bean crop at 4.110 BB (ly-4.276)! In addition, daily 8am “flash sales” have increased dramatically in the past 5 weeks – totally over 25 – mostly to China! Finally, domestic demand has skyrocketed – adding more support!
With 4-5 million more acres & slack demand, Dec Corn has drifted to the $4.80 level – some $2.00 of its 2022 highs! So, the mkt has dialed in the big increase in acreage & sharp downdraft in exports but has NOT factored in the closing hot & dry weather pattern! We feel prospect of much better exports & a smaller-than-forecast crops mean early “harvest lows” have already been carved out! There has been much talk about renewing the “Corridor Deal” but it appears Russian’s pre-requirements for that are too stringent for a renewal! Domestic ethanol demand is very strong & the current price level makes the US suddenly competitive with Brazil! Pro Farmer pegged corn yields at 172 late last month but a weather-induced deterioration has evolved since then – possibly dropping the yield 2-3 bushels/acre! This coupled with heightened export potential from the sub-$5.00 price level – makes a strong case for “early harvest lows”!
Sometimes, as the old commodity axiom goes, LOW PRICES CURE LOW PRICES! Dec Wht is a stunning $5.00 off its 2022 highs – mostly as a result of Russia’s massive exports of its “cheap wht” as a direct result of its recent record harvest! But even they are saying lately that “enough is enough” – that wht prices are inordinately cheap! And who would disagree? So, this cheapness will inevitably attract solid export demand & as well, wht prices will benefit from the spillover of its neighboring mkts – corn & beans – as the rally after carving out harvest lows! After all, wht is far & away the cheapest grain on the world mkt!
Despite record high prices & the waning impact of the fading “grilling demand” season, tight cattle supplies continue to dominate the fundamental landscape! Both the 4th & 1st Qtr production is much lower than normal & despite lackluster demand, will keep prices, at the very least, in the tight consolidation pattern they’ve been in since late July –and only $3-4.00 off its late-July contract highs! This mkt action is particularly impressive given the relative cheapness of pork products in the supermarket!
Despite National Pork Week coming soon, a higher USDA pork cutout & strong export sales, Oct hogs are down $1.50 – even as its Sister Mkt, Oct Cat surges for nearly a $3.00 inter-day gain! An enigma to be sure! Afterall, pork chops are a lot better deal in your grocery store than are steaks! But demand is lately favoring beef -albeit a much pricier alternative!Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337