Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed a little lower yesterday on some long liquidation by speculators but reports of stressful conditions for US Cotton production continue. Trends could be turning up in this market again. Ideas are around that Chinese economic data implies less US cotton demand for the coming year but demand from other buyers has been good. There is more talk of a contraction that could develop in China and Cotton demand could be hurt if people have less money to spend on clothes. The heat is still extreme in the southern US and has yet to moderate. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.06 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 352 bales, from 347 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8830 December. Support is at 86.00, 84.90, and 84.40 December, with resistance of 88.40, 88.90 and 90.00 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Aug 31
As of Aug 25. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 48,579 48,637 -58 36,287 36,888 -601
Mar 24 10,420 9,464 956 2,697 2,532 165
May 24 5,662 5,466 196 222 222 0
Jul 24 6,222 5,424 798 107 83 24
Dec 24 4,743 4,660 83 25,052 25,116 -64
Mar 25 136 109 27 0 0 0
May 25 44 26 18 0 0 0
Jul 25 114 105 9 0 0 0
Dec 25 375 375 0 595 154 441
Total 76,295 74,266 2,029 64,960 64,995 -35
Open Open Change
Oct 23 98 81 17
Dec 23 123,593 125,753 -2,160
Mar 24 44,512 43,255 1,257
May 24 12,220 11,850 370
Jul 24 8,183 7,805 378
Dec 24 15,772 15,417 355
Mar 25 3 1 2
May 25 3 3 0
Jul 25 3 3 0
Dec 25 3 3 0
Total 204,390 204,171 219
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday in liquidation trading from the big rally on Wednesday caused by bullish data from Brazil. CitrusBR estimated stocks were estimated at 84,745 tons for last season. This was the lowest estimate since 2012 when data collection started and stocks were estimated below 100,000 tons. Production for next year is expected to drop a bit due to weather concerns. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for products around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 356.00 and 382.00 November. Support is at 322.00, 313.00, and 305.00 November, with resistance at 333.00, 338.00, and 344.00 November.
General Comments: New York closed lower and London was mixed yesterday on the lack of offer in the cash market. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers. The Brazil harvest moving quickly and this fact has pressured prices. Vietnam is not offering much Coffee into the world market as domestic cash prices are very high. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta with no offers from Vietnam in the world market due to very high domestic prices.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.484 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 153.30 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 1 contract weas tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 801 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 152.00, 150.00, and 147.00 December, and resistance is at 158.00, 160.00 and 163.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2420, 2400, and 2350 November, with resistance at 2530, 2570, and 2600 November.
General Comments: Both markets closed lower on some long liquidation from the funds. Traders are more worried about the lack of Sugar exports from India than they are about actual exports from Brazil. There are also worries about the Thai production potential in this year of El Nino. Reports of increased offers from Brazil are still around but other origins are still not offering, and demand is still strong. Brazil production increasing on reports of very good harvest conditions and the weather in Southeast Asia is currently good for the next crop production prospects so relief could be coming soon. More Sugar is now available to the world market. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Some areas have remained dry while others have seen too much rain. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2620 and 2770 March. Support is at 2540, 2500, and 2460 March and resistance is at 2620, 2650, and 2680 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 734 and 771 December. Support is at 703.00, 697,00, and 690.00 December, with resistance at 724.00, 736.00, and 748.00 December.
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher once again yesterday. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.168 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 343 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3710 December. Support is at 3620, 3550, and 3490 December, with resistance at 3680, 3720, and 3750 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 2810, 2760, and 2740 December, with resistance at 2950, 2980, and 3010 December.