Grains Report 09/01/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 05, 2023 158 Jul 25, 2023
OATS September Sep 05, 2023 155 Aug 31, 2023
WHEAT September Sep 05, 2023 1,091 Aug 30, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower and trends are still down on the daily charts for all three markets, Demand for US Wheat needs to improve and the lack of demand for US Wheat keep prices weak. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 590 and 555 November. Support is at 594, 588, and 582 November, with resistance at 626, 646, and 654 November. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 715 and 682 November. Support is at 715, 710, and 704 November, with resistance at 740, 755, and 772 November. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 749 November. Support is at 764, 758, and 752 November, and resistance is at 790, 797, and 810 November.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed mixed to a little lower yesterday as the US harvest expands. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports over the weekend that caused Indian exporters to cancel contracts to sell 500,000 tons. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is once again possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1639, 1614, and 1601 November and resistance is at 1687, 1700, and 1712 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on follow through selling. Expectations are for stressful weather to continue and the Pro Farmer crop tour found less than good crops on the complete tour. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Pro Farmer estimated production at 14.96 billion bushels with a yield of 172 bu/acre. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for the next couple of weeks. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 474, 471, and 468 December, and resistance is at 499, 507, and 517 December. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 500, 485, and 472 December, and resistance is at 522, 528, and 534 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on follow through selling. Good crops were seen by the Pro Farmer tour last week and ideas are that stressful conditions are likely to persist for at least the next couple of weeks. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Pro Farmer estimated production at 4.11 billion bushels with a yield of 49.7 bu/acre Demand forced the soy complex lower early in the week. Weather forecasts call for warm and dry conditions for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 198,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1443 November. Support is at 1364, 1338, and 1333 November, and resistance is at 1409, 1435, and 1448 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 406.00, 400.00, and 393.00 October, and resistance is at 412.00, 416.00, and 423.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6300, 6190, and 6060 October, with resistance at 6580, 6700, and 6800 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher again today on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. The private sources reported that the export pace is now behind that of last month. Production ideas are strong and are helping to keep rallies in check. Canola was lower. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 782.00, 777.00, and 758.00 November, with resistance at 836.00, 859.00, and 854.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3900, 3800, and 3700 November, with resistance at 4070, 4160, and 4210 November.

DJ Malaysia Aug. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,171,998 Tons, Down 0.42%, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Aug. 1-31 period are estimated down 0.42% on month at 1,171,998 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
August 1-31 July 1-30
RBD Palm Olein 291,835 304,055
RBD Palm Oil 93,655 61,225
RBD Palm Stearin 104,802 112,813
Crude Palm Oil 322,570 396,460
Total* 1,171,998 1,176,912
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 110 Dec 115 Sep
65 Sep
140 Nov

October
94 Dec 130 Dec
80 Dec 115 Nov

November
92 Dec
140 Dec 95 Dec 107 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 887.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 907.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 927.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 895.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 915.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 935.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 830.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 827.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,930.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 247.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.648)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 175,804 lots, or 9.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,286 5,332 5,269 5,311 5,279 5,295 16 1,256 10,149
Nov-23 5,293 5,321 5,245 5,292 5,279 5,284 5 141,943 142,882
Jan-24 5,205 5,241 5,173 5,231 5,202 5,214 12 23,377 44,911
Mar-24 5,149 5,170 5,108 5,169 5,138 5,143 5 7,862 7,291
May-24 5,152 5,172 5,112 5,169 5,140 5,148 8 1,256 3,635
Jul-24 5,117 5,126 5,077 5,126 5,092 5,103 11 110 317
Corn
Turnover: 627,251 lots, or 1.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,825 2,859 2,765 2,841 2,825 2,842 17 1,664 11,485
Nov-23 2,739 2,739 2,706 2,716 2,731 2,719 -12 416,458 680,512
Jan-24 2,650 2,651 2,626 2,643 2,647 2,637 -10 120,807 394,528
Mar-24 2,625 2,627 2,605 2,620 2,622 2,614 -8 54,501 139,254
May-24 2,636 2,638 2,617 2,628 2,634 2,625 -9 12,388 84,280
Jul-24 2,630 2,631 2,612 2,623 2,628 2,619 -9 21,433 30,928
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,371,894 lots, or 9.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,924 4,937 4,885 4,922 4,924 4,909 -15 3,034 6,665
Nov-23 4,650 4,655 4,563 4,607 4,657 4,606 -51 216,739 343,406
Dec-23 4,330 4,346 4,267 4,301 4,339 4,302 -37 21,848 58,696
Jan-24 4,137 4,150 4,075 4,105 4,144 4,109 -35 1,775,440 1,856,922
Mar-24 3,802 3,808 3,743 3,780 3,803 3,774 -29 16,000 57,546
May-24 3,521 3,527 3,481 3,502 3,521 3,502 -19 253,778 519,678
Jul-24 3,471 3,476 3,434 3,447 3,473 3,453 -20 51,424 423,150
Aug-24 3,500 3,507 3,464 3,477 3,502 3,486 -16 33,631 33,313
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,003,421 lots, or 79.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,872 7,928 7,816 7,928 7,872 7,868 -4 215 2,321
Oct-23 7,904 7,966 7,828 7,906 7,884 7,898 14 26,444 40,477
Nov-23 7,930 7,980 7,840 7,942 7,910 7,914 4 19,539 56,354
Dec-23 7,952 7,990 7,850 7,950 7,918 7,922 4 10,397 35,091
Jan-24 7,918 7,980 7,832 7,952 7,902 7,908 6 873,436 504,484
Feb-24 7,922 7,972 7,836 7,948 7,890 7,908 18 9,173 18,326
Mar-24 7,922 7,958 7,834 7,944 7,884 7,902 18 5,322 16,449
Apr-24 7,912 7,940 7,834 7,934 7,878 7,888 10 7,437 3,385
May-24 7,918 7,918 7,808 7,908 7,832 7,858 26 51,152 61,456
Jun-24 7,822 7,856 7,768 7,836 7,808 7,812 4 87 534
Jul-24 7,750 7,788 7,700 7,776 7,732 7,742 10 122 766
Aug-24 7,730 7,750 7,608 7,738 7,622 7,702 80 97 106
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,173,137 lots, or 99.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,758 8,796 8,620 8,784 8,758 8,728 -30 1,780 2,295
Nov-23 8,662 8,772 8,566 8,770 8,714 8,664 -50 61,780 106,088
Dec-23 8,590 8,694 8,504 8,692 8,612 8,586 -26 6,484 35,255
Jan-24 8,500 8,590 8,408 8,590 8,502 8,484 -18 1,016,746 672,998
Mar-24 8,266 8,338 8,200 8,338 8,256 8,258 2 4,019 32,008
May-24 8,120 8,162 8,034 8,160 8,080 8,086 6 68,154 83,119
Jul-24 8,050 8,080 7,974 8,080 8,010 8,020 10 9,046 110,367
Aug-24 8,068 8,084 7,984 8,084 8,014 8,016 2 5,128 17,322
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

141 W. Jackson Blvd
. Suite 1340A, Chicago, IL 60604 | (800) 769-7021 | (312) 264-4364 (Direct) | www.pricegroup.com
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
To SUBSCRIBE to Morning Rice Commets please click here.

To Unsubscribe from Morning Rice Comments please click here.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322