About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 31
For the week ended Aug 24, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 329.1 15.0 7504.9 9812.6 3641.4 33.2
hrw 13.3 0.0 1365.1 2891.4 644.0 0.0
srw 156.7 15.0 1864.2 1878.2 775.7 33.0
hrs 90.6 0.0 2686.4 2699.9 1405.1 0.2
white 48.1 0.0 1448.8 2214.9 700.5 0.0
durum 20.5 0.0 140.5 128.1 116.2 0.0
corn 71.7 991.8 40597.8 60933.1 1643.6 8343.5
soybeans -50.7 1123.8 53418.1 59781.1 1581.3 12935.2
soymeal 61.7 324.9 12798.0 11964.0 1475.8 2322.5
soyoil 1.5 0.0 131.3 697.5 22.3 6.0
upland cotton 61.4 11.0 5226.8 7625.8 4477.2 355.0
pima cotton 4.6 0.0 54.4 100.5 37.7 1.5
sorghum 2.2 251.0 2769.1 6987.4 523.4 1444.2
barley 0.0 0.0 16.1 15.5 16.1 0.0
rice 82.3 0.0 557.2 356.8 456.9 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 31
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 01, 2023 168 Jul 20, 2023
OATS September Sep 01, 2023 269 Aug 30, 2023
WHEAT September Sep 01, 2023 1,113 Aug 30, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher, but trends are still down on the daily charts for all three markets, Indications are that some ships are moving from Ukraine through the Black Sea with grain cargoes. Demand for US Wheat needs to improve. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 590 and 555 November. Support is at 600, 594, and 588 November, with resistance at 626, 646, and 654 November. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 715 and 682 November. Support is at 721, 716, and 710 November, with resistance at 740, 755, and 772 November. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 770 and 749 November. Support is at 776, 770, and 764 November, and resistance is at 790, 797, and 810 November.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed mixed to a little higher yesterday on ideas of bad production conditions even as the US harvest expands. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. It instituted a new 20% tax on White Rice exports over the weekend that caused Indian exporters to cancel contracts to sell 500,000 tons. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1639, 1614, and 1601 November and resistance is at 1687, 1700, and 1712 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on follow through selling tied to the response to the Monday USDA reports that showed less than expected crop deterioration. Expectations are for stressful weather to continue and the Pro Farmer crop tour found less than good crops on the complete tour. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Pro Farmer estimated production at 14.96 billion bushels with a yield of 172 bu/acre Weather forecasts remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for this week and the next couple of weeks. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 474, 471, and 468 December, and resistance is at 499, 507, and 517 December. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 500, 485, and 472 December, and resistance is at 522, 528, and 534 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on follow through selling tied to less than expected crop deterioration shown by USDA in its Monday reports. Good crops were seen by the Pro Farmer tour last week and ideas are that stressful conditions are likely to persist for at least the next couple of weeks. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Pro Farmer estimated production at 4.11 billion bushels with a yield of 49.7 bu/acre Demand forced the soy complex lower early in the week. Weather forecasts call for warm and dry conditions for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1443 November. Support is at 1364, 1338, and 1333 November, and resistance is at 1409, 1435, and 1448 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 406.00, 400.00, and 393.00 October, and resistance is at 416.00, 423.00, and 430.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6300, 6190, and 6060 October, with resistance at 6580, 6700, and 6800 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher again today on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. The private sources reported that the export pace is now behind that of last month. Production ideas are strong and are helping to keep rallies in check. Canola was lower. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 782.00, 777.00, and 758.00 November, with resistance at 836.00, 859.00, and 854.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3900, 3800, and 3700 November, with resistance at 4070, 4160, and 4210 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 110 Dec 115 Sep
65 Sep
140 Nov

October
94 Dec 130 Dec
80 Dec 115 Nov

November
92 Dec
140 Dec 95 Dec 107 Nov

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 136,360 lots, or 7.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,270 5,298 5,252 5,286 5,254 5,279 25 4,589 14,601
Nov-23 5,275 5,301 5,251 5,287 5,250 5,279 29 116,072 146,873
Jan-24 5,200 5,222 5,177 5,207 5,183 5,202 19 13,954 43,452
Mar-24 5,137 5,153 5,115 5,142 5,124 5,138 14 1,139 6,545
May-24 5,141 5,154 5,118 5,144 5,124 5,140 16 527 3,527
Jul-24 5,098 5,108 5,080 5,097 5,083 5,092 9 79 299
Corn
Turnover: 638,031 lots, or 17.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,814 2,880 2,813 2,820 2,814 2,825 11 16,401 16,722
Nov-23 2,731 2,746 2,722 2,733 2,724 2,731 7 458,836 697,733
Jan-24 2,648 2,659 2,640 2,647 2,644 2,647 3 88,919 396,531
Mar-24 2,720 2,720 2,616 2,624 2,617 2,622 5 59,255 127,776
May-24 2,633 2,643 2,630 2,635 2,629 2,634 5 12,350 83,589
Jul-24 2,631 2,634 2,624 2,629 2,622 2,628 6 2,270 20,200
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,461,897 lots, or 60.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,935 4,947 4,901 4,930 4,917 4,924 7 42,098 9,549
Nov-23 4,654 4,680 4,627 4,645 4,631 4,657 26 133,046 347,434
Dec-23 4,340 4,358 4,317 4,336 4,323 4,339 16 19,153 57,436
Jan-24 4,155 4,165 4,123 4,137 4,134 4,144 10 1,025,790 1,811,100
Mar-24 3,813 3,824 3,783 3,794 3,809 3,803 -6 14,648 58,312
May-24 3,528 3,537 3,507 3,518 3,518 3,521 3 157,995 498,592
Jul-24 3,477 3,486 3,460 3,470 3,465 3,473 8 42,355 418,682
Aug-24 3,510 3,517 3,495 3,500 3,499 3,502 3 26,812 31,529
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,076,265 lots, or 85.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,840 7,952 7,806 7,904 7,794 7,872 78 8,309 2,396
Oct-23 7,874 7,938 7,820 7,882 7,824 7,884 60 24,569 47,127
Nov-23 7,908 7,966 7,836 7,906 7,854 7,910 56 20,923 56,945
Dec-23 7,912 7,976 7,854 7,910 7,852 7,918 66 11,423 34,068
Jan-24 7,870 7,966 7,830 7,896 7,824 7,902 78 944,762 487,178
Feb-24 7,828 7,956 7,822 7,896 7,808 7,890 82 7,138 17,795
Mar-24 7,822 7,948 7,814 7,894 7,792 7,884 92 6,369 16,595
Apr-24 7,782 7,940 7,782 7,896 7,764 7,878 114 6,809 3,286
May-24 7,812 7,906 7,752 7,858 7,722 7,832 110 45,154 61,759
Jun-24 7,638 7,846 7,638 7,810 7,638 7,808 170 386 518
Jul-24 7,618 7,768 7,618 7,748 7,556 7,732 176 350 755
Aug-24 7,548 7,744 7,548 7,716 7,500 7,622 122 73 84
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,178,451 lots, or 10.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,742 8,834 8,710 8,720 8,748 8,758 10 5,231 3,879
Nov-23 8,746 8,768 8,640 8,644 8,744 8,714 -30 52,572 101,732
Dec-23 8,640 8,648 8,566 8,570 8,612 8,612 0 8,681 35,184
Jan-24 8,510 8,546 8,460 8,470 8,486 8,502 16 1,034,429 651,606
Mar-24 8,218 8,304 8,206 8,254 8,198 8,256 58 4,162 32,576
May-24 8,028 8,132 8,010 8,098 7,990 8,080 90 58,159 80,173
Jul-24 7,964 8,060 7,944 8,030 7,912 8,010 98 10,314 111,462
Aug-24 7,992 8,064 7,958 8,032 7,928 8,014 86 4,903 17,355
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322