Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be long liquidation despite reports of stressful conditions for US Cotton production. Ideas are around that Chinese economic data implies less US cotton demand for the coming year but demand from other buyers has been good. There is more talk of a contraction that could develop in China and Cotton demand could be hurt if people have less money to spend on clothes. The heat is still extreme in the southern US and has yet to moderate. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia and improved production prospects here at home continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market and as China is trying not to buy from the US. There are also worries developing that the US could be moving into a mild recession after many months of superlative growth.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 81.89 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 347 bales, from 347 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8830 December. Support is at 86.00, 84.90, and 84.40 December, with resistance of 88.40, 88.90 and 90.00 December.
Date 27-Aug 20-Aug 2022 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 90 81 91 90
Cotton Bolls Opening 25 18 27 25
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 23 21 23 28 5
Cotton Last Week 22 24 21 27 6
Cotton Last Year 17 19 30 29 5
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for products around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Florida Mutual said that inventories of FCOJ are 44% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 312.00, 302.00, and 295.00 September, with resistance at 333.00, 334.00, and 337.00 September.
General Comments: New York was a little lower and London was closed. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America should be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers. The Brazil harvest moving quickly. Vietnam is not offering much Coffee into the world market as domestic cash prices are very high. Ideas are that roaster demand is relaxing with more Coffee harvest4ed and potentially available to the market. There are reports of dry weather for the harvest in Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations, but some showers were reported in Espiritu Santo to create a new round of flowering. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta with no offers from Vietnam in the world market due to very high domestic prices. Producers in Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell. Central America is featuring Coffee offered with very high differentials. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any downside movement and big offers are not coming with the lower prices.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 0.512 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 151.74 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 387 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 150.00, 147.00, and 144.00 December, and resistance is at 156.00, 158.00 and 160.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2400, 2350, and 2320 November, with resistance at 2460, 2480, and 2500 November.
General Comments: New York closed higher again with London closed for the day as traders are more worried about the lack of Sugar exports from India than they are about actual exports from Brazil. India has not cut exports yet but could easily do so in response to dry weather in Sugarcane growing areas. Reports of increased offers from Brazil are still around but other origins are still not offering and demand is still strong. Brazil production increasing on reports of very good harvest conditions and the weather in Southeast Asia is currently good for the next crop production prospects so relief could be coming soon. More Sugar is now available to the world market. India still has problems with current and future production potential. The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Some areas have remained dry while others have seen too much rain. India announced a higher base price for Sugar paid to farmers to help promote additional planted area. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2500 and 2760 October. Support is at 2470, 2440, and 2410 October and resistance is at 2530, 2620, and 2650 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 746 October. Support is at 696.00, 687,00, and 677.00 October, with resistance at 712.00, 716.00, and 722.00 October.
General Comments: New York closed higher and London was closed. Trends turned up again on the charts on Friday and New York held the new uptrend yesterday. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.196 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 343 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3440, 3390, and 3370 December, with resistance at 3510, 3590, and 3620 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2820 and 2890 December. Support is at 2740, 2700, and 2630 December, with resistance at 2800, 2830, and 2860 December.