Grains Report 08/29/2023

DJ Statistics Canada Crop 2023/24 Production – Aug 29
WINNIPEG – The following is a summary of the Statistics
Canada August model-based principal field crop production
estimates for 2023-24.
The year-ago numbers are included for comparison. Production in
million metric tons. Source: Statistics Canada.
Harvested Avg Production
area yield 2023-24 2022-23
AUG FINAL
barley 2,662.0 2,977 7,923.9 9,986.7
edible beans 118.7 2,274 269.9 313.0
canaryseed 101.3 1,255 127.1 159.3
chickpeas 124.0 1,069 132.6 127.9
corn 1,503.1 9,798 14,726.9 14,538.9
faba beans N/A N/A N/A 87.8
flaxseed 237.2 1,119 265.4 473.2
lentils 1,463.3 1,050 1,536.6 2,300.6
mixed grains 59.9 2,436 145.9 202.8
mustard 248.3 634 157.4 161.8
oats 828.8 2,931 2,428.8 5,226.5
dry peas 1,203.6 1,820 2,191.1 3,423.3
soybeans 2,262.2 2,977 6,734.8 6,543.2
sugar beets N/A N/A N/A 1,278.6
sunflower seed 34.8 2,168 75.5 84.1
triticale N/A N/A N/A 60.5
winter wheat* 568.9 5,471 3,112.0 2,701.1

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 28
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Aug 28, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF
EXPORTATION. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS
EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY
UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 24, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/24/2023 08/17/2023 08/25/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 147 399 1,214
CORN 597,144 510,559 699,829 36,778,785 54,602,158
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 0 0 3,195 6,386
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 77,863 57,933 22,471 2,591,099 7,424,226
SOYBEANS 322,149 320,431 509,849 51,868,743 56,517,890
SUNFLOWER 670 384 288 6,445 3,316
WHEAT 390,364 311,314 631,326 4,030,272 5,125,532
Total 1,388,290 1,200,621 1,863,910 95,278,938 123,680,722
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 27-Aug 20-Aug 2022 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 90 81 91 90
Cotton Bolls Opening 25 18 27 25
Crorn Dough 88 78 84 86
Corn Dented 51 35 55 49
Corn Mature 9 4 7 8
Soybeans Setting Pods 91 86 90 90
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 6 4 8
Sorghum Headed 89 81 87 91
Sorghum Coloring 48 38 46 61
Sorghum Mature 22 12 23 23
Sorghum Harvested 17 18 19
Rice Headed 96 94 96 96
Rice Harvested 25 18 18 18
Oats Harvested 82 70 79 85
Barley Harvested 61 49 59 69
Spring Wheat Harvested 54 39 48 63

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 23 21 23 28 5
Cotton Last Week 22 24 21 27 6
Cotton Last Year 17 19 30 29 5

Corn This Week 6 11 27 47 9
Corn Last Week 5 10 27 47 11
Corn Last Year 8 11 27 42 12

Soybeans This Week 4 10 28 48 10
Soybeans Last Week 4 9 28 49 10
Soybeans Last Year 4 9 30 46 11

Sorghum This Week 9 15 31 37 8
Sorghum Last Week 8 14 27 42 9
Sorghum Last Year 16 28 35 19 2

Spring Wheat This Week 4 20 39 34 3
Spring Wheat Last Week 4 19 38 35 3
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 5 26 58 10

Rice This Week 0 3 24 58 13
Rice Last Week 1 4 27 52 16
Rice Last Year 1 3 26 53 17

Peanuts This Week 2 8 31 55 3
Peanuts Last Week 1 9 26 61 6
Peaanuts Last Year 1 4 26 59 10

Pasture and Range This Week 16 21 27 30 6
Pasture and Range Last Week 16 19 28 31 6
Pasture and Range Last Year 22 24 29 21 4

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower but mostly held to a trading range, Indications are that some ships are moving from Ukraine through the Black Sea with grain cargoes. Demand for US Wheat needs to improve. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 582, 576, and 570 September, with resistance at 621, 626, and 643 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 730, 727, and 720 September, with resistance at 761, 779, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 761 September. Support is at 760, 754, and 740 September, and resistance is at 790, 803, and 811 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday on ideas of bad production conditions even as the US harvest expands. Yields are called average to below average in Texas and average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1570, 1552, and 1540 September and resistance is at 1603, 1620, and 1632 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on expectations for stressful weather to continue and as the Pro Farmer crop tour found less than good crops on the complete tour. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Pro Farmer estimated production at 14.96 billion bushels with a yield of 172 bu/acre Weather forecasts remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for this week and the next couple of weeks. The crops will need rain to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June but the crops are not expected to see much rain if any rain at all. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 461, 459, and 456 September, and resistance is at 493, 495, and 508 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 462, 439, and 424 September, and resistance is at 488, 494, and 500 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on less than good crops seen by the Pro Farmer tour last week and on ideas that stressful conditions are likely to persist for at least the next couple of weeks. Highly variable conditions were noted especially in western areas. Pro Farmer estimated production at 4.11 billion bushels with a yield of 49.7 bu/acre Demand forced the soy complex lower early in the week. Weather forecasts call for warm and dry conditions for the Midwest. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone and severe damage is becoming possible in some areas. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 105,000 tons of US Soybean Meal and 246,100 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1415 and 1465 September. Support is at 1387, 1364, and 1338 September, and resistance is at 1401, 1420, and 1440 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 429.00 and 444.00 September. Support is at 415.00, 406.00, and 395.00 September, and resistance is at 434.00, 445.00, and 442.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6400, 6310, and 6210 September, with resistance at 6740, 6950, and 7000 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Futures were lower today as the private sources reported that the export pace is now behind that of last month. Production ideas are strong and are helping to keep rallies in check. Canola was higher on Chicago price action. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies and the crop has been stressed. Ideas are that StatsCan will show a reduction in production potential in its updates later this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 782.00, 777.00, and 758.00 November, with resistance at 836.00, 859.00, and 854.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 November, with resistance at 3960, 4050, and 4210 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
67 Sep 112 Sep
55 Sep
NQ Nov

September
67 Sep
112 Sep
55 Sep NQ Nov

October
68 Dec
130 Dec 85 Dec 118 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 862.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 882.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 902.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 870.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 910.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 807.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 807.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,850.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 239.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6445)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 173,614 lots, or 9.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,265 5,311 5,241 5,246 5,265 5,272 7 3,891 18,588
Nov-23 5,261 5,314 5,227 5,236 5,265 5,274 9 150,588 143,179
Jan-24 5,185 5,236 5,162 5,174 5,192 5,201 9 17,641 44,050
Mar-24 5,111 5,165 5,104 5,107 5,120 5,136 16 900 6,529
May-24 5,115 5,167 5,105 5,108 5,122 5,134 12 475 3,276
Jul-24 5,068 5,120 5,065 5,068 5,086 5,088 2 119 319
Corn
Turnover: 796,733 lots, or 2.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,801 2,819 2,799 2,814 2,800 2,812 12 13,844 30,831
Nov-23 2,710 2,738 2,709 2,728 2,702 2,726 24 576,089 721,543
Jan-24 2,632 2,652 2,632 2,646 2,628 2,642 14 126,420 392,615
Mar-24 2,610 2,625 2,610 2,618 2,609 2,617 8 57,235 117,432
May-24 2,625 2,638 2,624 2,632 2,622 2,631 9 17,288 78,579
Jul-24 2,619 2,632 2,618 2,628 2,616 2,626 10 5,857 18,338
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,008,877 lots, or 83.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,933 4,962 4,901 4,933 4,932 4,940 8 34,513 61,120
Nov-23 4,636 4,698 4,627 4,656 4,638 4,665 27 191,043 343,205
Dec-23 4,320 4,370 4,308 4,339 4,331 4,339 8 34,638 59,342
Jan-24 4,120 4,176 4,115 4,144 4,133 4,148 15 1,476,214 1,850,951
Mar-24 3,817 3,848 3,810 3,824 3,841 3,830 -11 17,273 58,985
May-24 3,524 3,547 3,508 3,516 3,547 3,526 -21 196,854 476,520
Jul-24 3,469 3,493 3,454 3,462 3,485 3,471 -14 44,319 416,458
Aug-24 3,506 3,527 3,490 3,503 3,509 3,504 -5 14,023 30,225
Palm Oil
Turnover: 848,807 lots, or 6.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,812 7,860 7,720 7,754 7,828 7,794 -34 5,735 12,124
Oct-23 7,758 7,876 7,734 7,774 7,830 7,814 -16 22,485 49,812
Nov-23 7,764 7,894 7,734 7,802 7,844 7,834 -10 16,547 57,060
Dec-23 7,754 7,886 7,718 7,796 7,838 7,824 -14 11,210 34,055
Jan-24 7,730 7,852 7,676 7,764 7,800 7,774 -26 740,183 455,912
Feb-24 7,714 7,830 7,678 7,754 7,790 7,790 0 8,862 17,911
Mar-24 7,700 7,812 7,676 7,738 7,788 7,776 -12 8,033 16,677
Apr-24 7,674 7,772 7,640 7,706 7,738 7,742 4 3,358 3,367
May-24 7,586 7,722 7,578 7,656 7,684 7,658 -26 32,087 55,123
Jun-24 7,522 7,626 7,502 7,568 7,608 7,594 -14 105 724
Jul-24 7,432 7,542 7,416 7,480 7,490 7,488 -2 166 952
Aug-24 7,406 7,468 7,378 7,444 7,430 7,430 0 36 93
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,179,706 lots, or 9.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,800 8,864 8,694 8,730 8,902 8,794 -108 14,993 10,999
Nov-23 8,682 8,836 8,676 8,724 8,844 8,764 -80 68,403 103,768
Dec-23 8,612 8,700 8,552 8,594 8,708 8,632 -76 6,070 36,369
Jan-24 8,422 8,534 8,346 8,438 8,514 8,456 -58 1,030,940 644,116
Mar-24 8,112 8,222 8,044 8,152 8,178 8,146 -32 2,452 33,102
May-24 7,874 7,986 7,834 7,928 7,966 7,926 -40 44,682 74,180
Jul-24 7,798 7,890 7,732 7,854 7,850 7,832 -18 8,386 113,213
Aug-24 7,800 7,904 7,752 7,866 7,872 7,842 -30 3,780 16,402
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322