Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Aug 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 51.774 million pounds, in July, 26.0% below the previous
month, and 20.8% above July 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture
In thousand pounds.
Jul 31 Jun 30 Jul 31 Jun 30 warehouse
2023 2023 2022 2022 stocks/Jul
pork bellies 51,774 69,954 42,842 53,183
orange juice 324,888 327,816 493,826 520,593
french fries 976,542 991,866 976,071 990,097
other potatoes 235,662 243,471 237,906 248,179
chicken rstr (whole) 15,826 13,942 13,035 12,269
ham 143,921 136,836 151,634 139,283
total pork 473,831 486,811 526,496 539,100 420,890
total beef 420,101 410,736 511,845 516,785 409,605
total red meat 922,496 923,344 1,066,784 1,081,397 858,016
total chicken 847,635 859,856 814,432 774,189
total turkey 439,490 437,904 425,848 411,855
total poultry 1,289,430 1,300,416 1,242,582 1,188,225 1,203,299
General Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday on reports of stressful conditions for US Cotton production. Ideas are around that Chinese economic data implies less US cotton demand for the coming year but demand from other biuyers has been good. There is more talk of a contraction that could develop in China and Cotton demand could be hurt if people have less money to spend on clothes. The heat is still extreme in the southern US and has yet to moderate. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia and improved production prospects here at home continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market and as China is trying not to buy from the US. There are also worries developing that the US could be moving into a mild recession after many months of superlative growth.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 81.07 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 347 bales, from 347 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 38,900 bales this year and 52,900 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 1,300 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 84.90, 84.40, and 83.40 December, with resistance of 86.40, 88.40 and 88.80 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday in recovery trading. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for products around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Florida Mutual said that inventories of FCOJ are 44% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 312.00, 302.00, and 295.00 September, with resistance at 333.00, 334.00, and 337.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher yesterday in mostly consolidation trading. Offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America could be increasing but prices are considered a little cheap to create much selling interest from producers. The Brazil harvest moving quickly along and offers should be increasing. Vietnam is not offering at all into the world market as domestic cash prices are very high. Ideas are that roaster demand is relaxing with more Coffee seen in the market now. There are reports of dry weather for the harvest in Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta with no offers from Vietnam in the world market due to very high domestic prices. Producers in Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell. Central America is featuring Coffee offered with very high differentials. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any downside movement. And this seems to be happening right now.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.513 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 151.67 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 387 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 387 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 150.00, 147.00, and 144.00 December, and resistance is at 155.00, 158.00 and 160.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2550, 2520, and 2490 November, with resistance at 2630, 26670, and 2700 November.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again and prices are holding a trading range in both markets. Reports of increased offers from Brazil are still around but other origins are still not offering and demand is still strong. Brazil production increasing on reports of very good harvest conditions and the weather in Southeast Asia is currently good for the next crop production prospects so relief could be coming soon. More Sugar is now available to the world market. India still has problems with current and future production potential. The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Some areas have remained dry while others have seen too much rain. India announced a higher base price for Sugar paid to farmers to help promote additional planted area. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2340, 2300, and 2270 October and resistance is at 2440, 2470, and 2490 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 687.00, 677,00, and 671.00 October, with resistance at 704.00, 705.00, and 712.00 October.\
DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Up 23% at 47.9M Tons in 1H August, Unica Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the first half of August compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 47.9 million metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 23% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Thursday. They produced 3.5 million tons of sugar, up 31%, and made 2.3 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 16%.
The production mix for the first half of August was 51% sugar to 49% ethanol, compared with 47% sugar and 53% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
In the period from April 1 through Aug. 15, mills in the region crushed 360 million tons of cane, up 12% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 22% to 22.7 million tons, and ethanol output climbed 6.8% to 16.8 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Aug. 15 was 49% sugar to 51% ethanol, compared with 45% sugar and 55% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.228 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 3470 and 3600 September. Support is at 3300, 3270, and 3240 September, with resistance at 3440, 3520, and 3600 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2770 September. Support is at 2620, 2580, and 2540 September, with resistance at 2740, 2760, and 2790 September.