Grains Report 08/24/2023

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Aug 23
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 51.774 million pounds, in July, 26.0% below the previous
month, and 20.8% above July 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Wednesday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Jul 31 Jun 30 Jul 31 Jun 30 warehouse
2023 2023 2022 2022 stocks/Jul
pork bellies 51,774 69,954 42,842 53,183
orange juice 324,888 327,816 493,826 520,593
french fries 976,542 991,866 976,071 990,097
other potatoes 235,662 243,471 237,906 248,179
chicken rstr (whole) 15,826 13,942 13,035 12,269
ham 143,921 136,836 151,634 139,283
total pork 473,831 486,811 526,496 539,100 420,890
total beef 420,101 410,736 511,845 516,785 409,605
total red meat 922,496 923,344 1,066,784 1,081,397 858,016
total chicken 847,635 859,856 814,432 774,189
total turkey 439,490 437,904 425,848 411,855
total poultry 1,289,430 1,300,416 1,242,582 1,188,225 1,203,299
===============================================================================

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 24
For the week ended Aug 17, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 406.0 0.0 7175.7 8813.1 3666.2 18.2
hrw 74.5 0.0 1351.9 2634.1 657.6 0.0
srw 20.5 0.0 1707.5 1610.8 649.1 18.0
hrs 158.3 0.0 2595.7 2500.2 1541.7 0.2
white 152.8 0.0 1400.7 1940.6 722.2 0.0
durum -0.1 0.0 120.0 127.4 95.7 0.0
corn -22.7 673.5 40526.0 60949.5 2235.2 7351.7
soybeans 364.9 1218.2 53468.8 59558.2 1951.7 11811.4
soymeal 71.4 202.6 12736.2 11754.8 1641.8 1997.5
soyoil 1.8 0.0 129.8 695.3 21.1 6.0
upland cotton 38.9 52.8 5165.4 7367.7 4629.9 344.0
pima cotton 1.3 0.0 49.8 99.6 36.2 1.5
sorghum -68.6 184.0 2766.8 6976.4 595.1 1193.2
barley 0.0 0.0 16.1 15.5 16.1 0.0
rice 31.4 0.0 474.8 314.6 439.2 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on renewed bombing of Ukraine ports by Russia and the unexpected drop in crop condition reported by USDA on Monday night. Demand for US Wheat needs to improve. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 595, 586, and 582 September, with resistance at 621, 626, and 643 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 730, 727, and 720 September, with resistance at 761, 779, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 761 September. Support is at 770, 766, and 760 September, and resistance is at 803, 811, and 818 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed slightly lower again yesterday in consolidation trading as the US harvest expands and good yields are reported. Yields are called average to well above average in the southern US and average to above average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1530 September. Support is at 1536, 1529, and 1512 September and resistance is at 1570, 15787, and 1590 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on a drop in crop condition ratings reported by USDA and as the Pro Farmer crop tour found less than good crops on the second day. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for this week and the next couple of weeks. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but will need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way, but ideas are that much of the yield has been already made. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 461, 459, and 456 September, and resistance is at 480, 486, and 495 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 424, 413, and 400 September, and resistance is at 447, 452, and 458 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on less than good criops seen by the Pro Farmer tour on the third day. Demand forced the soy complex lower early in the week. Weather forecasts calling for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for this week and the next few weeks supported Soybeans futures. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1303, and 1289 September, and resistance is at 1387, 1401, and 1420 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 390.00, and 383.00 September, and resistance is at 417.00, 423.00, and 434.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6400, 6310, and 6210 September, with resistance at 6740, 6950, and 7000 September.\

DJ Olive Oil Prices Soar as Spanish Heatwaves Continue — Market Talk
1408 GMT – Olive oil prices climb to record highs as heatwaves in the world’s largest producer Spain continue to hamper crop growth. In its most-recent assessment, Mintec, a price reporting agency, put prices at a record EUR8.20 a kilogram for extra virgin olive oil in Andalusia. Spain accounts for roughly half of the world’s olive oil, and droughts over the last two years have pushed prices up sharply. In August 2021, prices in the region stood at EUR3.35 a kilo. Jaen, one of Spain’s major growing regions, is set to see temperatures of more than 40 degrees Celsius this week, with extreme weather measures being taken in other parts of the country. (yusuf.khan@wsj.com)

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Ideas are that export demand has improved as the private sources reported at 10.8% increase in exports for the month to date yesterday. Canola was lower on Chicago price action. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 782.00, 777.00, and 758.00 November, with resistance at 816.00, 835.00, and 850.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 November, with resistance at 3960, 4050, and 4210 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
67 Sep 112 Sep
55 Sep
NQ Nov

September
67 Sep
112 Sep
55 Sep NQ Nov

October
68 Dec
130 Dec 85 Dec 118 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 867.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 877.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 887.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 875.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 885.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 895.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 805.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 805.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,880.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 238.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6435)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 152,737 lots, or 7.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,182 5,226 5,182 5,202 5,180 5,205 25 8,766 23,214
Nov-23 5,192 5,230 5,180 5,201 5,177 5,204 27 124,482 142,547
Jan-24 5,102 5,154 5,102 5,125 5,105 5,130 25 17,739 44,910
Mar-24 5,048 5,090 5,043 5,069 5,045 5,066 21 735 6,483
May-24 5,060 5,095 5,048 5,074 5,048 5,071 23 739 3,186
Jul-24 5,008 5,061 5,008 5,030 5,008 5,031 23 276 300
Corn
Turnover: 756,103 lots, or 20.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,795 2,810 2,790 2,805 2,791 2,801 10 17,156 52,566
Nov-23 2,670 2,700 2,667 2,693 2,665 2,682 17 532,695 690,503
Jan-24 2,608 2,622 2,607 2,619 2,606 2,616 10 117,012 397,873
Mar-24 2,590 2,606 2,590 2,601 2,591 2,600 9 75,484 122,195
May-24 2,598 2,613 2,598 2,610 2,602 2,608 6 12,636 64,312
Jul-24 2,596 2,602 2,592 2,598 2,592 2,597 5 1,120 7,149
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,864,841 lots, or 75.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,756 4,811 4,736 4,787 4,802 4,774 -28 75,437 112,735
Nov-23 4,475 4,506 4,441 4,461 4,544 4,469 -75 247,023 309,475
Dec-23 4,170 4,217 4,152 4,176 4,199 4,178 -21 27,569 62,224
Jan-24 3,980 4,034 3,977 3,997 3,994 4,002 8 1,300,444 1,824,166
Mar-24 3,735 3,771 3,731 3,744 3,730 3,747 17 12,635 64,732
May-24 3,456 3,495 3,456 3,474 3,465 3,473 8 147,771 505,849
Jul-24 3,399 3,447 3,399 3,422 3,413 3,426 13 43,747 419,274
Aug-24 3,448 3,488 3,446 3,461 3,450 3,465 15 10,215 27,586
Palm Oil
Turnover: 951,717 lots, or 72.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,606 7,800 7,606 7,712 7,648 7,726 78 30,295 23,282
Oct-23 7,632 7,804 7,604 7,680 7,646 7,726 80 24,406 52,445
Nov-23 7,608 7,816 7,606 7,706 7,658 7,754 96 23,248 56,285
Dec-23 7,610 7,796 7,580 7,676 7,628 7,728 100 11,803 34,297
Jan-24 7,560 7,754 7,528 7,630 7,574 7,660 86 816,186 436,184
Feb-24 7,556 7,728 7,516 7,618 7,552 7,660 108 9,351 18,354
Mar-24 7,538 7,700 7,498 7,600 7,532 7,636 104 4,664 18,669
Apr-24 7,488 7,650 7,460 7,566 7,490 7,580 90 2,158 3,556
May-24 7,390 7,568 7,382 7,490 7,404 7,512 108 29,310 48,995
Jun-24 7,302 7,472 7,286 7,402 7,300 7,398 98 64 682
Jul-24 7,206 7,358 7,186 7,288 7,194 7,310 116 172 878
Aug-24 7,166 7,282 7,166 7,252 7,158 7,218 60 60 65
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,296,505 lots, or 10.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,410 8,682 8,410 8,608 8,438 8,560 122 42,587 62,699
Nov-23 8,458 8,714 8,446 8,624 8,470 8,620 150 72,763 108,755
Dec-23 8,352 8,584 8,340 8,508 8,352 8,502 150 6,006 38,629
Jan-24 8,122 8,374 8,112 8,290 8,120 8,278 158 1,126,991 598,574
Mar-24 7,828 8,022 7,804 7,946 7,818 7,948 130 2,071 33,516
May-24 7,580 7,788 7,580 7,716 7,600 7,714 114 32,765 65,824
Jul-24 7,510 7,698 7,510 7,630 7,524 7,624 100 9,428 111,875
Aug-24 7,564 7,718 7,550 7,650 7,538 7,642 104 3,894 14,307
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322