Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher yesterday on reports of stressful conditions for US Cotton production. Ideas are around that Chinese economic data implies less US cotton demand for the coming year. There is more talk of a contraction that could develop in China and Cotton demand could be hurt if people have less money to spend on clothes. The heat is still extreme in the southern US and has yet to moderate. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia and improved production prospects here at home continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market and as China is trying not to buy from the US. There are also worries developing that the US could be moving into a mild recession after many months of superlative growth.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.85 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 347 bales, from 347 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 83.30, 82.50, and 82.00 December, with resistance of 85.10, 85.90 and 86.40 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again yesterday. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for products around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Florida Mutual said that inventories of FCOJ are 44% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 312.00, 302.00, and 295.00 September, with resistance at 333.00, 334.00, and 337.00 September.
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London closed a little higher yesterday in mostly consolidation trading as offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America could be increasing. Both markets were lower for the week. It looks like speculative selling hit the London market last week. The Brazil harvest moving quickly along and offers should be increasing. Vietnam is not offering at all into the world market as domestic cash prices are very high. Ideas are that roaster demand is relaxing with more Coffee seen in the market now. There are reports of dry weather for the harvest in Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta with no offers from Vietnam in the world market due to very high domestic prices. Producers in Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell. Central America is featuring Coffee offered with very high differentials. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any downside movement. And this seems to be happening right now.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 0.513 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 148.79 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 147.00 September. Support is at 145.00, 142.00, and 139.00 September, and resistance is at 152.00, 155.00 and 158.00 September. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 2520, 2500, and 2480 September, with resistance at 2600, 2640, and 2670 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher. Reports of increased offers from Brazil are still around but other origins are still not offering and demand is still strong. Brazil production increasing on reports of very good harvest conditions and the weather in Southeast Asia is currently good for the next crop production prospects so relief could be coming soon. More Sugar is now available to the world market. India still has problems with current and future production potential. The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Some areas have remained dry while others have seen too much rain. India announced a higher base price for Sugar paid to farmers to help promote additional planted area. Thailand production is also down a lot this year and many Asian countries are worried about El Nino impacting future production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2260 and 2150 October. Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2090 October and resistance is at 2400, 2440, and 2460 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 669.00 and 646.00 October. Support is at 671.00, 662,00, and 654.00 October, with resistance at 693.00, 704.00, and 705.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.234 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 3470 and 3600 September. Support is at 3300, 3270, and 3240 September, with resistance at 3440, 3520, and 3600 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2770 September. Support is at 2620, 2580, and 2540 September, with resistance at 2740, 2760, and 2790 September.