Grains Report 08/23/2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher yesterday, but Spring Wheat closed lower despite the unexpected drop in crop condition reported by USDA on Monday night. Demand for US Wheat needs to improve. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 586, 582, and 576 September, with resistance at 621, 626, and 643 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 730, 727, and 720 September, with resistance at 761, 779, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 761 September. Support is at 766, 760, and 754 September, and resistance is at 786, 803, and 811 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed slightly lower again yesterday in consolidation trading as the US harvest expands and good yields are reported. Yields are called average to well above average in the southern US and average to above average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1530 September. Support is at 1536, 1529, and 1512 September and resistance is at 1570, 15787, and 1590 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 2
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 23.85 14.98 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 23.37 15.60 0.00
Brokens 14.43 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower despite a drop in crop condition ratings reported by USDA as the Pro Farmer crop tour found good crops on the second day. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for this week and the next couple of weeks. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but will need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way, but ideas are that much of the yield has been already made. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 461, 459, and 456 September, and resistance is at 480, 486, and 495 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 424, 413, and 400 September, and resistance is at 452, 458, and 464 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower. Demand forced the soy complex lower early in the week. Weather forecasts calling for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for this week and the next few weeks supported Soybeans futures. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. The Pro Farmer crop tour found good looking crops on the second day of the tour. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 100,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1342, 1320, and 1303 September, and resistance is at 1387, 1401, and 1420 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 390.00, and 383.00 September, and resistance is at 417.00, 423.00, and 434.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6550, 6440, and 6310 September, with resistance at 6950, 7000, and 7120 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Ideas are that export demand has improved as the private sources reported at 10.8% increase in exports for the month to date yesterday. Canola was lower on Chicago price action. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 782.00, 777.00, and 758.00 November, with resistance at 816.00, 835.00, and 850.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 November, with resistance at 3960, 4050, and 4210 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
67 Sep 112 Sep
55 Sep
NQ Nov

September
67 Sep
112 Sep
55 Sep NQ Nov

October
68 Dec
130 Dec 85 Dec 118 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 855.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 862.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 875.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 862.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 882.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 800.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 800.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 3,840.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 238.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6525)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 150,631 lots, or 7.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,171 5,209 5,158 5,195 5,223 5,180 -43 10,062 25,004
Nov-23 5,169 5,211 5,148 5,192 5,207 5,177 -30 125,239 136,632
Jan-24 5,092 5,130 5,084 5,108 5,137 5,105 -32 14,599 44,553
Mar-24 5,036 5,065 5,024 5,050 5,074 5,045 -29 422 6,424
May-24 5,040 5,071 5,030 5,049 5,077 5,048 -29 242 3,031
Jul-24 5,011 5,020 4,990 5,016 5,035 5,008 -27 67 292
Corn
Turnover: 811,216 lots, or 21.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,797 2,797 2,785 2,791 2,775 2,791 16 28,037 62,119
Nov-23 2,655 2,681 2,651 2,668 2,649 2,665 16 576,788 669,174
Jan-24 2,594 2,617 2,594 2,608 2,598 2,606 8 125,169 400,098
Mar-24 2,586 2,603 2,583 2,592 2,583 2,591 8 70,702 130,130
May-24 2,597 2,613 2,596 2,603 2,596 2,602 6 9,329 61,228
Jul-24 2,588 2,601 2,587 2,594 2,586 2,592 6 1,191 7,060
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,132,785 lots, or 8.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,827 4,848 4,756 4,761 4,858 4,802 -56 147,968 134,915
Nov-23 4,574 4,605 4,466 4,473 4,597 4,544 -53 293,838 319,692
Dec-23 4,215 4,231 4,161 4,165 4,256 4,199 -57 31,683 63,574
Jan-24 3,990 4,024 3,964 3,979 4,037 3,994 -43 1,434,258 1,780,520
Mar-24 3,732 3,748 3,713 3,733 3,762 3,730 -32 10,675 66,549
May-24 3,465 3,482 3,445 3,463 3,500 3,465 -35 152,477 500,611
Jul-24 3,414 3,426 3,398 3,412 3,433 3,413 -20 55,363 417,955
Aug-24 3,454 3,460 3,440 3,452 3,470 3,450 -20 6,523 26,216
Palm Oil
Turnover: 809,227 lots, or 6.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,620 7,722 7,576 7,642 7,696 7,648 -48 25,934 27,980
Oct-23 7,632 7,728 7,560 7,644 7,702 7,646 -56 18,527 53,885
Nov-23 7,670 7,736 7,562 7,646 7,698 7,658 -40 18,445 55,946
Dec-23 7,640 7,706 7,530 7,616 7,666 7,628 -38 10,460 34,188
Jan-24 7,592 7,666 7,476 7,574 7,628 7,574 -54 701,200 425,825
Feb-24 7,574 7,642 7,464 7,558 7,606 7,552 -54 7,159 18,055
Mar-24 7,576 7,608 7,444 7,528 7,574 7,532 -42 4,024 18,736
Apr-24 7,530 7,558 7,404 7,484 7,528 7,490 -38 2,091 3,573
May-24 7,424 7,474 7,324 7,412 7,448 7,404 -44 21,131 46,351
Jun-24 7,322 7,358 7,220 7,310 7,338 7,300 -38 58 686
Jul-24 7,258 7,258 7,136 7,206 7,246 7,194 -52 136 916
Aug-24 7,182 7,230 7,100 7,168 7,202 7,158 -44 62 69
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 963,765 lots, or 78.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,406 8,488 8,338 8,440 8,466 8,438 -28 53,183 77,440
Nov-23 8,392 8,514 8,360 8,470 8,464 8,470 6 54,250 105,286
Dec-23 8,322 8,396 8,240 8,364 8,346 8,352 6 4,455 39,231
Jan-24 8,108 8,176 8,014 8,134 8,138 8,120 -18 819,758 567,026
Mar-24 7,858 7,872 7,732 7,816 7,846 7,818 -28 1,247 33,885
May-24 7,610 7,660 7,522 7,614 7,640 7,600 -40 22,875 63,187
Jul-24 7,522 7,572 7,446 7,534 7,552 7,524 -28 5,124 110,836
Aug-24 7,562 7,582 7,462 7,556 7,544 7,538 -6 2,873 13,417
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322