Grains Report 08/22/2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 21
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Aug 21, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 17, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/17/2023 08/10/2023 08/18/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 147 399 1,067
CORN 482,526 459,030 821,533 36,153,608 53,902,329
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 399 798 3,095 6,386
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 56,685 116,298 43,381 2,511,988 7,401,755
SOYBEANS 316,074 417,905 687,047 51,541,821 56,008,041
SUNFLOWER 384 384 432 5,775 3,028
WHEAT 311,314 269,268 594,273 3,639,908 4,494,206
Total 1,166,983 1,263,284 2,147,611 93,856,594 121,816,812
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 20-Aug 13-Aug 2022 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 81 72 87 84
Cotton Bolls Opening 18 13 18 19
Crorn Dough 78 65 73 77
Corn Dented 35 18 29 33
Corn Mature 4 4 4
Soybeans Blooming 96 94 96 96
Soybeans Setting Pods 86 78 83 84
Sorghum Headed 81 71 77 84
Sorghum Coloring 38 30 36 40
Sorghum Mature 18 20 21
Rice Headed 94 87 92 92
Rice Harvested 18 14 14 14
Oats Harvested 70 60 68 76
Barley Harvested 49 28 42 52
Winter Wheat Harvested 96 92 94 96
Spring Wheat Harvested 39 24 31 46

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 22 24 21 27 6
Cotton Last Week 19 24 21 30 6
Cotton Last Year 18 22 29 26 5

Corn This Week 5 10 27 47 11
Corn Last Week 4 9 28 48 11
Corn Last Year 7 11 27 43 12

Soybeans This Week 4 9 28 49 10
Soybeans Last Week 3 9 29 48 11
Soybeans Last Year 4 9 30 47 10

Sorghum This Week 8 14 27 42 9
Sorghum Last Week 5 12 29 45 9
Sorghum Last Year 14 26 35 23 2

Spring Wheat This Week 4 19 39 35 3
Spring Wheat Last Week 4 16 38 39 3
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 7 28 56 8

Rice This Week 1 4 27 52 16
Rice Last Week 1 5 27 51 16
Rice Last Year 0 3 25 55 17

Peanuts This Week 1 4 26 61 6
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 26 62 7e
Peaanuts Last Year 1 4 26 59 10

Barley This Week 2 10 39 44 5
Barley Last Week 1 8 37 48 6
Barley Last Year 3 12 31 46 8

Pasture and Range This Week 16 19 28 31 6
Pasture and Range Last Week 15 17 28 33 7
Pasture and Range Last Year 25 24 28 20 3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on news that insurance had been found for the boats entering the Black Sea. That does not mean that business as usual is around the corner but it is progress. Demand for US Wheat needs to improve. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 586, 582, and 576 September, with resistance at 621, 626, and 643 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 730, 727, and 720 September, with resistance at 761, 779, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 778, 772, and 766 September, and resistance is at 803, 811, and 818 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed slightly lower yesterday in consolidation trading as the US harvest expands and good yields are reported. Yields are called average to well above average in the southern US and average to above average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1530 September. Support is at 1550, 1536, and 1529 September and resistance is at 1578, 1590, and 1600 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower after trading higher overnight as the Pro Farmer crop tour found good crops on the first day. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for this week and the next couple of weeks. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but will need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way, but ideas are that much of the yield has been already made. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 224,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 462, 459, and 456 September, and resistance is at 486, 495, and 508 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 424, 413, and 400 September, and resistance is at 444, 452, and 458 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher yesterday and Soybean Oil was lower. Demand forced the soy complex lower early in the week. Weather forecasts calling for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for this week and the next few weeks supported Soybeans futures. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. The Pro Farmer crop tour fojnd good looking crops on the first day of the tour.l Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1415 and `1465 September. Support is at 1365, 1344, and 1320 September, and resistance is at 1387, 1401, and 1420 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 405.00, 395.00, and 390.00 September, and resistance is at 417.00, 423.00, and 434.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6700 and 7050 September. Support is at 6550, 6440, and 6310 September, with resistance at 6950, 7000, and 7120 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on pricer action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Ideas are that export demand has improved as the private sources reported at 10.8% increase in exports for the month to date yesterday. Canola was higher on Chicago price action and on dry Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 793.00, 782.00, and 777.00 November, with resistance at 816.00, 835.00, and 850.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4020 and 4160 November. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 November, with resistance at 3960, 4050, and 4210 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
67 Sep 112 Sep
55 Sep
NQ Nov

September
67 Sep
112 Sep
55 Sep NQ Nov

October
68 Dec
130 Dec 85 Dec 118 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 867.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 885.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 875.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 882.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 892.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 810.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 810.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 3900.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 243.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.642)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 259,380 lots, or 13.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,241 5,285 5,155 5,165 5,240 5,223 -17 27,483 28,093
Nov-23 5,259 5,270 5,138 5,154 5,214 5,207 -7 203,634 134,542
Jan-24 5,190 5,207 5,074 5,083 5,147 5,137 -10 26,030 44,059
Mar-24 5,118 5,140 5,013 5,028 5,086 5,074 -12 1,395 6,463
May-24 5,126 5,142 5,018 5,029 5,090 5,077 -13 762 2,956
Jul-24 5,090 5,090 4,986 5,000 5,041 5,035 -6 76 283
Corn
Turnover: 667,748 lots, or 17.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,768 2,786 2,767 2,782 2,765 2,775 10 31,678 76,368
Nov-23 2,657 2,659 2,638 2,650 2,655 2,649 -6 467,041 665,550
Jan-24 2,602 2,608 2,590 2,598 2,606 2,598 -8 91,935 395,110
Mar-24 2,585 2,591 2,575 2,585 2,590 2,583 -7 64,271 126,378
May-24 2,598 2,605 2,588 2,597 2,599 2,596 -3 11,740 60,658
Jul-24 2,592 2,594 2,580 2,586 2,592 2,586 -6 1,083 7,014
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,728,559 lots, or 11.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,960 4,962 4,801 4,805 4,878 4,858 -20 325,503 163,778
Nov-23 4,660 4,660 4,531 4,548 4,586 4,597 11 308,081 325,858
Dec-23 4,314 4,316 4,185 4,185 4,292 4,256 -36 39,615 64,261
Jan-24 4,089 4,097 3,972 3,974 4,068 4,037 -31 1,736,491 1,741,968
Mar-24 3,817 3,821 3,706 3,715 3,787 3,762 -25 16,762 67,889
May-24 3,561 3,561 3,451 3,453 3,533 3,500 -33 224,935 505,455
Jul-24 3,476 3,479 3,394 3,398 3,453 3,433 -20 65,439 409,889
Aug-24 3,520 3,520 3,432 3,439 3,487 3,470 -17 11,733 24,592
Palm Oil
Turnover: 755,813 lots, or 57.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,738 7,750 7,612 7,680 7,708 7,696 -12 38,810 34,510
Oct-23 7,754 7,774 7,616 7,680 7,736 7,702 -34 20,978 55,782
Nov-23 7,756 7,774 7,620 7,692 7,754 7,698 -56 13,056 53,139
Dec-23 7,726 7,738 7,584 7,658 7,726 7,666 -60 10,905 34,198
Jan-24 7,686 7,694 7,532 7,612 7,664 7,628 -36 641,643 431,783
Feb-24 7,650 7,672 7,520 7,594 7,656 7,606 -50 7,993 18,393
Mar-24 7,624 7,650 7,494 7,564 7,634 7,574 -60 5,351 18,754
Apr-24 7,568 7,594 7,452 7,518 7,570 7,528 -42 1,841 3,661
May-24 7,488 7,514 7,366 7,432 7,476 7,448 -28 14,960 46,006
Jun-24 7,388 7,400 7,280 7,332 7,388 7,338 -50 95 697
Jul-24 7,300 7,302 7,176 7,238 7,328 7,246 -82 141 886
Aug-24 7,244 7,258 7,146 7,204 7,258 7,202 -56 40 39
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 928,412 lots, or 75.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,550 8,556 8,386 8,450 8,486 8,466 -20 57,431 85,963
Nov-23 8,496 8,522 8,384 8,452 8,462 8,464 2 39,526 98,898
Dec-23 8,384 8,410 8,276 8,348 8,348 8,346 -2 4,360 39,563
Jan-24 8,184 8,208 8,054 8,130 8,142 8,138 -4 786,931 552,447
Mar-24 7,898 7,906 7,764 7,840 7,850 7,846 -4 1,433 33,941
May-24 7,682 7,700 7,564 7,622 7,656 7,640 -16 26,870 62,405
Jul-24 7,574 7,594 7,484 7,534 7,566 7,552 -14 7,163 110,022
Aug-24 7,530 7,584 7,498 7,552 7,530 7,544 14 4,698 12,824
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322