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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 08/21/2023

By Jack Scoville On August 21, 2023 - 12:11 PM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on Friday but lower for the week as the war between Russia and Ukraine and demand for US Wheat remained the features. It was a short covering rally on Friday caused by the US Midwest weather forecast that supported Soybeans and Corn. Demand for US Wheat needs to improve. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 601, 586, and 582 September, with resistance at 626, 643, and 664 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 745, 730, and 727 September, with resistance at 761, 779, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 792, 785, and 778 September, and resistance is at 811, 818, and 836 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2023

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 465,240

: Positions :

: 40,509 112,681 156,799 83,680 106,317 144,678 49,680 425,667 425,477: 39,573 39,763

: Changes from: August 8, 2023 (Change in open interest: 33,946) :

: 1,028 9,908 17,352 9,034 -1,174 3,762 5,968 31,176 32,054: 2,771 1,892

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 8.7 24.2 33.7 18.0 22.9 31.1 10.7 91.5 91.5: 8.5 8.5

: Total Traders: 386 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 99 106 121 99 98 50 32 316 297:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2023

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 205,223

: Positions :

: 28,876 43,111 52,818 41,385 65,508 61,707 19,437 184,787 180,875: 20,436 24,348

: Changes from: August 8, 2023 (Change in open interest: 4,534) :

: -2,324 2,454 2,935 5,181 -2,578 -1,487 -508 4,305 2,302: 229 2,232

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 14.1 21.0 25.7 20.2 31.9 30.1 9.5 90.0 88.1: 10.0 11.9

: Total Traders: 217 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 41 44 64 63 75 37 17 175 173:

——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2023

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :

CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 57,484 :

: Positions :

: 30,357 31,535 1,517 164 510 6,310 7,818 3,028 3,104 996 2,713 :

: Changes from: August 8, 2023 :

: 4,927 -1,333 329 22 107 -2,836 3,169 -388 -153 62 636 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 52.8 54.9 2.6 0.3 0.9 11.0 13.6 5.3 5.4 1.7 4.7 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 104 :

: 54 42 4 . 5 9 13 12 9 6 7 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:

General Comments: Rice closed slightly higher on Friday in consolidation trading as the US harvest expands and good yields are reported. Yields are called average to well above average in the southern US and average to above average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. USDA showed that crop progress was a little ahead of the five year average and that crop condition deteriorated slightly from last week and remains a little behind the quality of last year. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.

Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1530 September. Support is at 1553, 1536, and 1529 September and resistance is at 1578, 1590, and 1600 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2023

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :

CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,896 :

: Positions :

: 3,075 8,503 115 0 0 2,953 450 19 1,533 60 995 :

: Changes from: August 8, 2023 :

: 80 -80 6 0 0 8 1 -14 30 -23 -92 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 28.2 78.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 27.1 4.1 0.2 14.1 0.6 9.1 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 57 :

: 16 18 . 0 0 13 4 . 10 4 7 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn was higher last week on weather concerns. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for this week and the next couple of weeks. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but will need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way, but ideas are that much of the yield has been already made. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.

Overnight News: Mexico bought 111,770 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 473, 462, and 459 September, and resistance is at 486, 495, and 508 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 424, 413, and 400 September, and resistance is at 443, 452, and 458 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2023

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,801,252

: Positions :

: 125,354 247,780 532,817 547,621 643,178 422,900 139,707 1,628,692 1,563,483: 172,559 237,769

: Changes from: August 8, 2023 (Change in open interest: 34,557) :

: -15,297 32,854 11,056 28,220 -22,159 1,977 6,466 25,956 28,217: 8,602 6,341

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 7.0 13.8 29.6 30.4 35.7 23.5 7.8 90.4 86.8: 9.6 13.2

: Total Traders: 767 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 105 167 203 369 355 52 32 658 638:

——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2023

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :

CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,367 :

: Positions :

: 995 2,647 131 0 0 527 72 0 293 143 258 :

: Changes from: August 8, 2023 :

: -82 -200 -13 0 0 23 72 0 -53 -1 -20 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 22.8 60.6 3.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 1.6 0.0 6.7 3.3 5.9 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 22 :

: 6 9 . 0 0 4 . 0 4 . . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower last week and Soybean Oil was higher. Demand forced the soy complex lower early in the week. Weather forecasts calling for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for this week and the next few weeks supported Soybeans futures late in the week and could support futures again this week. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers, but the US is price competitive now. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.

Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 159,350 tons of US SoybeNS.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1320, 1303, and 1289 September, and resistance is at 1353, 1370, and 1376 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 387.00 September. Support is at 395.00, 390.00, and 383.00 September, and resistance is at 404.00, 412.00, and 423.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6700 and 7050 September. Support is at 6550, 6440, and 6310 September, with resistance at 6910, 7000, and 7120 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2023

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 817,683

: Positions :

: 83,325 59,498 219,883 278,513 423,240 186,816 39,494 768,537 742,115: 49,146 75,569

: Changes from: August 8, 2023 (Change in open interest: 15,453) :

: -9,599 5,440 8,900 18,921 -1,561 -2,426 410 15,797 13,189: -344 2,264

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 10.2 7.3 26.9 34.1 51.8 22.8 4.8 94.0 90.8: 6.0 9.2

: Total Traders: 552 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 113 122 166 176 225 53 24 438 453:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2023

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 560,046

: Positions :

: 54,149 45,722 140,706 183,085 315,465 146,634 32,529 524,575 534,421: 35,472 25,625

: Changes from: August 8, 2023 (Change in open interest: 7,488) :

: 1,513 -865 8,007 -1,731 1,217 -858 -155 6,930 8,204: 558 -716

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 9.7 8.2 25.1 32.7 56.3 26.2 5.8 93.7 95.4: 6.3 4.6

: Total Traders: 301 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 71 54 87 84 96 45 23 251 226:

——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2023

: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- : Positions

: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total

: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 536,935

: Positions :

: 61,469 21,387 160,935 131,366 310,621 132,942 14,550 486,711 507,492: 50,224 29,443

: Changes from: August 8, 2023 (Change in open interest: -1,243) :

: -10,674 4,501 -2,361 16,093 -3,652 -466 703 2,593 -809: -3,835 -434

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 11.4 4.0 30.0 24.5 57.9 24.8 2.7 90.6 94.5: 9.4 5.5

: Total Traders: 298 Number of Traders in Each Category :

: 72 41 92 104 107 41 17 264 229:

——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week as the private export data released in the middle of the week was strong and on strength in Chicago Soybean Oil. The market held support and trends are turning up again. Ideas are that export demand has improved as the private sources reported at 10.8% increase in exports for the month to date yesterday. Canola was higher on Chicago price action and on dry Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 793.00, 782.00, and 777.00 November, with resistance at 816.00, 835.00, and 850.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4020 and 4160 November. Support is at 3800, 3700, and 3680 November, with resistance at 3960, 4050, and 4210 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2023

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :

CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 44,267 :

: Positions :

: 38,037 25,937 560 4,650 1,220 40 800 0 690 7,940 3,720 :

: Changes from: August 8, 2023 :

: 647 -53 120 80 0 -120 0 0 -40 580 -100 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 85.9 58.6 1.3 10.5 2.8 0.1 1.8 0.0 1.6 17.9 8.4 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :

: 7 9 . 4 . . . 0 4 5 6 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 15, 2023

: Reportable Positions :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant : : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :

CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 263,769 :

: Positions :

: 182,645 180,814 4,528 9,331 764 37,189 27,920 21,910 5,231 11,900 9,693 :

: Changes from: August 8, 2023 :

: 15,826 1,336 169 -1,026 682 -12,150 2,557 3,804 -776 -158 2,512 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :

: 69.2 68.5 1.7 3.5 0.3 14.1 10.6 8.3 2.0 4.5 3.7 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 329 :

: 54 73 4 7 4 55 30 22 49 85 52 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil

August

67 Sep 112 Sep

55 Sep

NQ Nov

September

67 Sep

112 Sep

55 Sep NQ Nov

October

68 Dec

130 Dec 85 Dec 118 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 21

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 872.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –

Oct/Nov/Dec 885.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –

Jan/Feb/Mar 897.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 880.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –

Oct/Nov/Dec 892.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –

Jan/Feb/Mar 905.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 820.00 — Unquoted – –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 820.00 — Unquoted – –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 3950.00 — Unquoted – –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer Change Bid Change Traded

Sep 246.00 — Unquoted – –

($1=MYR4.6445)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 21

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 249,742 lots, or 13.01 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-23 5,241 5,273 5,214 5,256 5,244 5,240 -4 35,910 37,182

Nov-23 5,238 5,243 5,178 5,238 5,222 5,214 -8 181,408 129,003

Jan-24 5,164 5,187 5,103 5,176 5,131 5,147 16 30,247 45,492

Mar-24 5,081 5,121 5,030 5,111 5,050 5,086 36 1,186 6,188

May-24 5,078 5,124 5,037 5,117 5,051 5,090 39 875 2,791

Jul-24 5,046 5,080 5,002 5,080 5,013 5,041 28 116 273

Corn

Turnover: 900,161 lots, or 23.81 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-23 2,756 2,775 2,752 2,768 2,750 2,765 15 36,096 89,913

Nov-23 2,647 2,669 2,644 2,653 2,643 2,655 12 613,176 672,841

Jan-24 2,600 2,621 2,596 2,602 2,596 2,606 10 158,895 389,427

Mar-24 2,584 2,604 2,579 2,585 2,582 2,590 8 74,906 119,092

May-24 2,593 2,611 2,591 2,597 2,592 2,599 7 14,484 59,455

Jul-24 2,581 2,601 2,581 2,589 2,583 2,592 9 2,604 6,851

Soymeal

Turnover: 2,866,721 lots, or 12.02 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-23 5,000 5,000 4,750 4,958 4,726 4,878 152 427,867 217,025

Nov-23 4,462 4,652 4,461 4,646 4,472 4,586 114 310,040 317,379

Dec-23 4,170 4,341 4,170 4,310 4,171 4,292 121 68,098 62,826

Jan-24 3,990 4,125 3,986 4,088 3,982 4,068 86 1,742,911 1,762,033

Mar-24 3,725 3,827 3,711 3,814 3,711 3,787 76 20,778 68,396

May-24 3,480 3,578 3,475 3,548 3,472 3,533 61 212,118 509,991

Jul-24 3,409 3,487 3,405 3,471 3,420 3,453 33 74,693 403,512

Aug-24 3,442 3,612 3,440 3,501 3,455 3,487 32 10,216 21,414

Palm Oil

Turnover: 922,998 lots, or 70.78 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-23 7,606 7,812 7,606 7,736 7,670 7,708 38 70,843 44,733

Oct-23 7,646 7,810 7,620 7,748 7,694 7,736 42 32,463 57,317

Nov-23 7,664 7,836 7,638 7,752 7,712 7,754 42 17,841 53,779

Dec-23 7,644 7,806 7,600 7,720 7,680 7,726 46 12,469 35,121

Jan-24 7,582 7,768 7,550 7,670 7,630 7,664 34 747,322 442,444

Feb-24 7,584 7,736 7,538 7,648 7,612 7,656 44 13,392 18,660

Mar-24 7,530 7,702 7,516 7,618 7,584 7,634 50 6,887 18,896

Apr-24 7,484 7,650 7,466 7,568 7,536 7,570 34 2,349 3,647

May-24 7,420 7,576 7,390 7,484 7,452 7,476 24 18,991 45,713

Jun-24 7,338 7,480 7,322 7,380 7,404 7,388 -16 178 709

Jul-24 7,270 7,386 7,256 7,284 7,336 7,328 -8 246 879

Aug-24 7,238 7,318 7,226 7,248 7,322 7,258 -64 17 16

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 1,031,125 lots, or 84.18 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open

Settle Interest

Sep-23 8,394 8,578 8,378 8,530 8,438 8,486 48 82,538 96,276

Nov-23 8,360 8,542 8,352 8,494 8,420 8,462 42 45,258 98,565

Dec-23 8,260 8,424 8,236 8,380 8,294 8,348 54 5,013 39,936

Jan-24 8,070 8,242 8,028 8,168 8,104 8,142 38 854,813 557,196

Mar-24 7,798 7,936 7,756 7,876 7,814 7,850 36 1,841 34,172

May-24 7,614 7,744 7,582 7,670 7,638 7,656 18 25,348 61,697

Jul-24 7,516 7,650 7,486 7,568 7,552 7,566 14 10,134 109,245

Aug-24 7,488 7,614 7,450 7,530 7,528 7,530 2 6,180 11,394

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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